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re: If USC & Oklahoma go undefeated, are we this year's Auburn?
Posted on 8/1/08 at 7:52 am to Rush2112
Posted on 8/1/08 at 7:52 am to Rush2112
quote:If the SC/OSU winner and Oklahoma both go undefeated, then I'm afraid we'll be welcoming you to that new low.
If we do not get in with the reasons listed above, the BCS has reached a new low...
By the time we play our tough road games, the SC/OSU game will already have happened, cementing the winner in their inside track unless/until they lose. And Oklahoma will have played two BCS opponents (granted they are Cincy and Washington, but still better than our first 3 opponents) before we travel to Auburn, and they will be playing Texas the same day we play Florida. The stronger early season games will mitigate the difference between Texas and Florida and very likely keep them in the lead. The Georgia game a few weeks later, and the high profile Bama game, might give us enough to creep ahead of them. And there's no telling what the computers might do. But if OU can go undefeated, I don't foresee much chance of us jumping over them.
Fortunately, the odds are very long that OU and the SC/OSU winner will both go undefeated, and I'm pretty confident no one else will have the chance to keep us out unless we lose a game (which, of course, is also likely).
Oh, and I don't think you're going to have much of the "SEC is the toughest/SEC has dominated the last two championships" sentiment influencing the polls unless it is coming down to picking between teams with 1 or 2 losses.
1
Posted on 8/1/08 at 7:56 am to Volvagia
quote:
If we answer those questions by going undefeated despite playing UF and UGA, they'll jump us over OU.
Agreed 100%. No way LSU, UF, or UGA gets left out if they're undefeated.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:03 am to King Joey
quote:
But if OU can go undefeated, I don't foresee much chance of us jumping over them.
Get real. LSU would arguably have 4 wins better than OU's best. At Auburn, at Florida, Georgia at home, and the SECCG would probably all be tougher than any game OU plays. The pollsters have really been fluid the last 2 years. I think there's zero chance an undefeated LSU doesn't jump and undefeated OU.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:03 am to BBATiger
quote:
One thing you can always count on with College Football:
People spending endless hours talking about shite that will NEVER happen.
Don't ya love college football?
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:04 am to BBATiger
quote:
One thing you can always count on with College Football:
People spending endless hours talking about shite that will NEVER happen.
Like LSU getting into the BCSNC after losing to Arkansas at home?
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:09 am to Hot Carl
quote:I think there's a very good chance that's true (Big XII Championship and Texas and/or Texas Tech may be viewed better than Auburn, but that's about it). I am concerned about the perception problems of our OOC schedule, though. Often times pollsters can be much harsher in punishing for the weakest OOC opponents than they are generous in rewarding the strongest conference foes.
LSU would arguably have 4 wins better than OU's best.
quote:I don't recall them being particularly fluid in '06, but last year this was certainly true (relatively speaking). This does indeed give me hope of jumping OU, but the one (possibly two) year anomaly is not enough to give me a lot of confidence.
The pollsters have really been fluid the last 2 years.
And, again, I'm not really sweating it because the odds of any two BCS teams going undefeated are pretty slim, and the chances of three specific ones (LSU, OU and the SC/OSU winner) doing it are pretty astronomical, imo.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:10 am to Rush2112
quote:
But if OU can go undefeated, I don't foresee much chance of us jumping over them.
Even if we beat UF or UGA for the second time in the SECCG? Especially if LSU is the only loss that either of these teams has. I have I hard time seeing the Big 12 championship game being equivalent to either of these.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:14 am to King Joey
quote:
I think there's a very good chance that's true (Big XII Championship and Texas and/or Texas Tech may be viewed better than Auburn, but that's about it). I am concerned about the perception problems of our OOC schedule, though. Often times pollsters can be much harsher in punishing for the weakest OOC opponents than they are generous in rewarding the strongest conference foes.
I hear ya, Joey, but OU doesn't have a great OOC this year either. Washington is still a couple of years away from being relevant IMO.
Plus, OU is on a terrible bowl streak right now. Combine that with the SEC's displays in the past two BCSCG, and NO WAY an undefeated SEC team gets left out for OU.
Remember, all three SEC teams we're talking about are ranked in the top 6. Not like one of them is 15.
And UGA is already ahead of them. UF is right behind them, with LSU next. We're close enough that SEC cred puts us over.
Of course, the polls aren't the only factor. If the SEC beats up on each other, and two of the other SEC teams end up 9-3 or 8-4, Big 12 SOS might look better than SEC if Missou is 10-2, Kansas, 10-2, UT 11-1, and Texas Tech 9-3.
Damn I love college football!!!
This post was edited on 8/1/08 at 8:28 am
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:17 am to Rush2112
quote:I don't either. I'm just not confident that the extra difficulty will surpass our penalty for weak OOC games by a wide enough margin to overcome the inertia of OU being ahead of us already. Hot Carl made a decent point, though, that the polls were more fluid last year than they normally seem to be. If that's a sign of a new trend that continues into this season, then we are golden. If the pollsters are going to reevaluated teams as they go along rather than simply keeping teams where they are until they lose, then we would almost certainly leapfrog OU if both go undefeated.
I have I hard time seeing the Big 12 championship game being equivalent to either of these.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:20 am to King Joey
quote:
I don't recall them being particularly fluid in '06
Well, the obvious example is Florida jumping Michigan after the SECCG. But even before that, I remember having the perception of them being fluid--and more fair--that season.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:21 am to King Joey
Entertaining thread...what about the more plausible scenario of an undefeated OSU/USC and Oklahoma vs a 1 losss SEC Champ...
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:26 am to SprintFun
quote:
Entertaining thread...what about the more plausible scenario of an undefeated OSU/USC and Oklahoma vs a 1 losss SEC Champ...
The plot thickens..........
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:28 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:That's true. But they have two BCS opponents, and we have none.
I hear ya, Joey, but OU doesn't have a great OOC this year either.
Our schedule, though, is obviously significantly tougher overall. Again, the only real edge they have on us (and it is the only reason I am concerned at all) is the inertia issue. Traditionally, pollsters have been very reluctant to drop teams (particularly highly ranked ones) unless they lose.
The more I look at it and think about it, though, the more I think Hot Carl makes a good point. The polls were more fluid than usual last year, and that operated directly in our favor when we leapfrogged SC without them losing. Plus, we play at Auburn when OU has an open date, which would be an excellent opportunity for pollsters to move us ahead of them. Florida is between us, but with wins over Miami and Hawaii and beating Tennessee that same day Florida will likely either already be ahead of the Sooners or leapfrog them with us. Or, drop out of the question if they have a loss.
So, yeah, if we are undefeated I think there is a really good chance we leapfrog even an undefeated OU.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:29 am to SprintFun
quote:
Entertaining thread...what about the more plausible scenario of an undefeated OSU/USC and Oklahoma vs a 1 losss SEC Champ...
As a fan of keeping the sanctity of the regular season, I'd hope the undefeated gets the nod. Unless LSU is the 1-loss SEC champ, of course.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:30 am to Hot Carl
quote:You may be right, and that would certainly operate to our advantage (assuming undefeateds all around, of course). As I just noticed above, the timing of their open date and our Auburn game would probably work to our advantage, too.
But even before that, I remember having the perception of them being fluid--and more fair--that season.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:33 am to Hot Carl
quote:
Entertaining thread...what about the more plausible scenario of an undefeated OSU/USC and Oklahoma vs a 1 losss SEC Champ...
Wow. The more I think about this, its pretty interesting.
Let's say its OSU and OU undefeated in the BCSCG. I don't think an SEC team jumps them, or that they should.
But what if an undefeated WV gets left out and plays a one loss SEC team in the Sugar.
OSU OU game is sloppy, SEC team blows out WV.
What then, AP???
This post was edited on 8/1/08 at 8:40 am
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:36 am to SprintFun
quote:Sadly, even with the dominance of the SEC in recent years, I don't think a 1-loss champ would edge out an undefeated OU. It might be close, given the poor perception of OU's recent BCS appearances. But I still think the undefeated OU would get the nod.
Entertaining thread...what about the more plausible scenario of an undefeated OSU/USC and Oklahoma vs a 1 losss SEC Champ...
And there's virtually no chance of a 1-loss team unseating an undefeated OSU team that beat SC on the road.
And of course there's no chance of a 1-loss team edging out an undefeated SC team, especially if they've beaten OSU.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:55 am to JPLSU1981
quote:I think ranking the current year's team based on the previous year's performance is ridiculous. Furthermore, rankings are ridiculous. Period. Voting on a champion belittles College Football to the point of being a beauty contest or ice skating.
I hate the fact that the team that finished the previous season #1 doesn't automatically start the next season #1.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:56 am to jbirds1
quote:like Auburn in 2004...?
There's no way they keep out an SEC team.
Posted on 8/1/08 at 8:57 am to Lou
quote:
Furthermore, rankings are ridiculous. Period. Voting on a champion belittles College Football to the point of being a beauty contest or ice skating.
So you want a playoff then, I assume. How would you decide who gets in if rankings are ridiculous?
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