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Good college football playoff calculator
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:26 pm
The site FiveThirtyEight has a good college football playoff calculator that may be of interest:
538 Playoff Calculator
It allows you to see how various specific outcomes this weekend would affect the playoff odds for every team. Of course, they have to make certain assumptions about the committee's decision priorities, but my sense is they're pretty close to correct.
538 Playoff Calculator
It allows you to see how various specific outcomes this weekend would affect the playoff odds for every team. Of course, they have to make certain assumptions about the committee's decision priorities, but my sense is they're pretty close to correct.
10
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:33 pm to profwilson
According to that calculator, if we were to lose to Ole Miss this weekend, our chances of making the playoff drop to less than 50%.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:35 pm to LouisianaLonghorn
That’s probably true.
Ole Miss would be ranked only above Arkansas with our remaining schedule
Ole Miss would be ranked only above Arkansas with our remaining schedule
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:37 pm to Cadello
quote:
Ole Miss would be ranked only above Arkansas with our remaining schedule
LOL at Clemson's 77% chance of winning out. Their conference is garbage. Who will they play in the ACC title game, Wake Forest or Virginia?
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:39 pm to LouisianaLonghorn
quote:
LOL at Clemson's 77% chance of winning out. Their conference is garbage. Who will they play in the ACC title game, Wake Forest or Virginia?
Think they're in the same division as WF.
They will either play against UVA, VT, or Pitt in their title game.
ACC is hot garbage this year
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:53 pm to profwilson
Bama almost no shot according to this
Posted on 11/14/19 at 4:58 pm to Cow Drogo
That’s because by every objective measure they should have very little shot. It’s the subjective “ we think they’re in the top 4” “eye test” benefit of the doubt nonsense that would get them in
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:02 pm to profwilson
That calculator suggest that OU would get in over Oregon if they both win out, and Bama would have no shot.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:04 pm to profwilson
According to that website hillary still has a 98% chance at winning
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:07 pm to profwilson
Anything that uses ESPN's FPI is shite!
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:08 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
Yes. This is likely...
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:31 pm to HammerheadLincoln
quote:
ACC is hot garbage this year
Honestly, the AAC top-to-bottom is a more competitive conference.
If this continues another two years the ACC needs to be removed from the “P5”, and either the AAC added or just go with a P4.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:15 pm to profwilson
I've been impressed with 538 ever since they had Hillary at 83% on Election Day 2016 
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:21 pm to profwilson
simply picking Minnesota to win out causes an error due to it being such an unlikely outcome.. talk about disrespectful lol
Edit; Also picked LSU, Oregon, and Oklahoma to win out. Not just selecting the Minn win out.
Edit; Also picked LSU, Oregon, and Oklahoma to win out. Not just selecting the Minn win out.
This post was edited on 11/14/19 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 11/14/19 at 7:11 pm to profwilson
Bama has a 26% chance of making the playoff if they win out.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 7:17 pm to profwilson
It says that our chances get worse if UGA beats Auburn this weekend. I would have expected the opposite.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 7:22 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
It says that our chances get worse if UGA beats Auburn this weekend. I would have expected the opposite
Why? UGA is contending for a playoff spot. If they lose, they aren't anymore. The less contenders for the four positions, the higher our chances will be.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 8:23 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
Why? UGA is contending for a playoff spot. If they lose, they aren't anymore. The less contenders for the four positions, the higher our chances will be.
I guess I was thinking that if Auburn beats Georgia, then Bama beats Auburn that would improve Bama's chances. Which might hurt our chances.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 8:30 pm to Honkus
quote:
According to that website hillary still has a 98% chance at winning
I think they actually had it around 72-28. Which was a lot more accurate than some other sites. And just because a forecast gives something a 28% chance of happening and it happens, doesn’t necessarily mean it was a bad forecast.
If I say “pick a number between 1 and 4, you have a 25% chance of getting it right”. You getting it right doesn’t end up making my 25% projection dumb.
This post was edited on 11/14/19 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 11/14/19 at 8:31 pm to Honkus
You guys make me laugh with your understanding of statistics.
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