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1
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:36 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
The committee has passed on conference champions before.
They haven’t passed on a 1 loss conference champ for a 1 loss non conference champ, however. Look there’s too many scenarios too many possibilities to say one way or the other.
The worst case for LSU if we lose to Bama would be Texas drops 1-2 more and Auburn loses to UGA and Bama. Then our resume isn’t so shiny and it would not be surprising if they went with say a 12-1 Pac12 champion Oregon or Utah especially if they are both 11-1 going into the CCG.
On the flip side if Auburn gets at least 1 of UGA-Bama, UF goes 10-2, Texas 9-3 that would help our cause
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 11:39 am
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:38 am to DeltaDoc
Need Baylor to lose.
Need OSU to run the table.
Need OSU to run the table.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:39 am to H-Town Tiger
Only scenarios I'm somewhat worried about would be:
- OSU drops game to Penn St., then wins out along with Penn St winning the Big 10.
- Baylor going undefeated.
- Oregon winning the PAC 12 with one loss would be slightly concerning.
- OSU drops game to Penn St., then wins out along with Penn St winning the Big 10.
- Baylor going undefeated.
- Oregon winning the PAC 12 with one loss would be slightly concerning.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:39 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
As bad as it may sound they are not leaving out a one loss pac-12 champ over LSU. I have been saying this but the only way LSU makes the playoff is to win the SECCG.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:42 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
OSU drops game to Penn St., then wins out along with Penn St winning the Big 10.
I don’t worry about this as much because they have PSU at home and we play Bama in the road. I think our Schedule would and losing on the road would help
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:45 am to DeltaDoc
If it’s a close loss, we stay in.
Bama has to blow us out for us to drop out
Bama has to blow us out for us to drop out
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:46 am to dukke v
Here’s a better snapshot of what we could look at on Dec 7th.
1. Bama coming off a win against UGA - in.
2. Clemson winning, in.
3. Ohio State winning, in.
Then you will most likely have Oregon or Utah becoming Pac 12 Champs with a win over a top ten team with the nation and committee watching.
You could also have so many scenarios where Oklahoma looks good. What if KSU gets into the Big 12 title game and Oklahoma obliterates them? Story line will be that they avenged their only loss. Texas could still win out and get in and again Oklahoma is obliterating a good opponent.
Recency bias is a tough thing and the fact that we would be sitting at home while these teams are trying to make a statement....I think the odds are not good. This is just my opinion.
1. Bama coming off a win against UGA - in.
2. Clemson winning, in.
3. Ohio State winning, in.
Then you will most likely have Oregon or Utah becoming Pac 12 Champs with a win over a top ten team with the nation and committee watching.
You could also have so many scenarios where Oklahoma looks good. What if KSU gets into the Big 12 title game and Oklahoma obliterates them? Story line will be that they avenged their only loss. Texas could still win out and get in and again Oklahoma is obliterating a good opponent.
Recency bias is a tough thing and the fact that we would be sitting at home while these teams are trying to make a statement....I think the odds are not good. This is just my opinion.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:48 am to DeltaDoc
Style points will matter. People may not like it, but that's just the way it is.
If LSU loses to Alabama, we will need to look the way we did earlier in the season scoring 50+ points per game.
That shouldn't be a problem with Arkansas, but if we beat Ole Miss and A&M by just 10-14 and score less than 40 points in those games, we're not getting in unless Penn State finishes with 2 losses and Oregon and OU lose again.
If LSU loses to Alabama, we will need to look the way we did earlier in the season scoring 50+ points per game.
That shouldn't be a problem with Arkansas, but if we beat Ole Miss and A&M by just 10-14 and score less than 40 points in those games, we're not getting in unless Penn State finishes with 2 losses and Oregon and OU lose again.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:53 am to LSUTigKyl
quote:
Recency bias is a tough thing and the fact that we would be sitting at home while these teams are trying to make a statement
Then the committee would be failing to do what they were put in place to do.
Once all the dust has settled, they should stack resumes of the teams in question and compare them side by side. The goal is to get the BEST 4 teams in. Not the 4 who may deserve it the most, by winning a shitty conference. My whole argument is that, if they compare the entire bodies of work, LSU should be in with one close loss to Bama over almost anybody.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:55 am to DeltaDoc
Don't sleep on the idea of PSU losing a close one to OSU as another nightmarish scenario. The narrative / eye test last night was certainly not favorable.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 11:56 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
Go eat some funfetti cake and stay out the thread if you don't like it. Nothing wrong with having this discussion.
There is definitely something wrong with having this discussion 10 times a day, every fricking day.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:02 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
The goal is to get the BEST 4 teams in. Not the 4 who may deserve it the most, by winning a shitty conference
That may be your goal but the reality is it’s been mixed. The Pac12 is not as bad as you think and you are discounting the possibility that some of our “top 10” wins could be unranked by the end of the season.
I basically agree with you that if all other teams, including Ohio St and Bama we would have the best case and chance if we don’t win the conference but it could go either way with 12-1 Pac12/Big 12 champs. I do think a 12-1 LSU that beats Bama but loses the SECCG to UGA would be in not matter what
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:03 pm to DeltaDoc
I think CFP committee will put a 1 loss LSU over a 1 loss PAC-12 champ. PAC-12 has looked pretty bad this year, so their championship game shouldn't mean much. The one team that I could see getting the last spot before us is Baylor if they go undefeated.
One thing that would be interesting though if Ohio State also picks up 1 close loss to Penn State and Penn State wins out. Will the committee put us in ahead of Ohio State? I'm not so sure.
One thing that would be interesting though if Ohio State also picks up 1 close loss to Penn State and Penn State wins out. Will the committee put us in ahead of Ohio State? I'm not so sure.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:05 pm to DeltaDoc
The committee has discounted our strength of schedule. Several other teams will have to lose for LSU to get in if we lose Saturday.
Clemson will be a lock. One loss PAC 12 Champ.
Oklahoma still lurking. Could easily by a one loss Big 12 Champ.
Clemson will be a lock. One loss PAC 12 Champ.
Oklahoma still lurking. Could easily by a one loss Big 12 Champ.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:10 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
That may be your goal but the reality is it’s been mixed
Has it though? I don't think they have ultimately gotten it wrong once.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:10 pm to SUB
quote:
PAC-12 has looked pretty bad this year, so their championship game shouldn't mean much
You are not keeping up with current events. If Oregon and Utah are 7-8 in the playoff rankings, if they win out they will be both be 11-1 and will beat a top 10 team team in said CCG. The only other CCG likely to have 2 top 10 teams is the SECCG so you better believe the Pac12 CG by itself on Friday will mean a lot.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:11 pm to mhc4tigers
quote:
The committee has discounted our strength of schedule
How so?
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:14 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
If Oregon and Utah are 7-8 in the playoff rankings, if they win out they will be both be 11-1 and will beat a top 10 team team in said CCG
They will have beaten one team that was in the top 10 (which probably will no longer be in the top 10). LSU will have beaten at least one current top 10 team (Florida), and will have beaten other teams who were in the top 10 when they beat them.
The worrisome thing though is the weakness of the bottom of the SEC. Vandy, Ole Miss, Arkansas are dog shite. Miss St not far from it. That does hurt a little bit.
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:15 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
Has it though? I don't think they have ultimately gotten it wrong once.
Isn’t that kind of a circular argument?
I mean they are not going to get all 4 teams wrong but you could quibble with a couple of spots including last year OU over UGA but that was 1 loss vs 2. We haven’t seen them pick a 1 loss team that didn’t win a conference over a 1 loss team that did so imo it’s hard to say since they do say conference titles are 1 thing they will look at. ETA I do think if UGA has not lost to LSU they would have been in last year over OU they were ranked over 1 loss B1G champ tOSU but they had that horrible loss to Purdue
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 12:18 pm
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