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Does lsu have a chance of getting into a hypothetical 12 team playoff?
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:51 pm
Since it is becoming our reality soon, as a three loss team this year lsu would need a couple people ahead of them to lose. Do y’all think lsu would sneak in if they finish 9-3?
11
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:52 pm to bayoubaw18
No. There will be auto qualifiers via conference champs that will eat up some spots
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:52 pm to bayoubaw18
It certainly would make the end of a season like this more entertaining
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:55 pm to BordyLSU
This - which probably means no more than 2 from any single conference?
Posted on 11/12/23 at 2:55 pm to bayoubaw18
No
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:10 pm to BordyLSU
quote:
No. There will be auto qualifiers via conference champs that will eat up some spots
The current proposal to be approved is 5 plus 7. Power 4 (excluding the PAC12) plus the highest-ranked conference champion in the next tier (probably PAC12 this season). All of those would be in the top 10 already so if they get to 12 they would be in.
If they stick with 6+6 and P5 then they would need to get to 11.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:13 pm to bayoubaw18
Yes, it’s possible.
Anyone that says no doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s absolutely possible. It’s admittedly Unlikely if you look at what needs to happen, but nonetheless 100% possible.
Whether now (for NY6) or next year (for CFP), it goes by CFP rankings after the auto-qualifier conference champs are inserted. Most - if not all - of the auto-qualifiers will be in the Top12 anyway (all of the power5 usually are, G5 takes a spot), the rest (at-large) go by CFP ranking so it effectively becomes a race to get into the top11 of the rankings after you assume G5 will take a spot while not being in the Top12
(We’re 15 now, maybe even 14 on Tuesday…. LSU needs some help but can absolutely get in the Top11)
OregonSt and Louisville will lose down the stretch, that alone gets us to 13
BYU or TCU beats Oklahoma and Florida beats Mizzou… there you go: LSU is 11
And if you want some insurance Rutgers over PennSt or MissSt over Ole Miss would certainly help too, but those would be significant upsets.
My only point: If the playoff were starting this year, we are definitely on the outside looking in currently… But we’re also DEFINITELY still in the running to nab one of the final spots. (Same for NY6 bowl this year).
Anyone that says no doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s absolutely possible. It’s admittedly Unlikely if you look at what needs to happen, but nonetheless 100% possible.
Whether now (for NY6) or next year (for CFP), it goes by CFP rankings after the auto-qualifier conference champs are inserted. Most - if not all - of the auto-qualifiers will be in the Top12 anyway (all of the power5 usually are, G5 takes a spot), the rest (at-large) go by CFP ranking so it effectively becomes a race to get into the top11 of the rankings after you assume G5 will take a spot while not being in the Top12
(We’re 15 now, maybe even 14 on Tuesday…. LSU needs some help but can absolutely get in the Top11)
OregonSt and Louisville will lose down the stretch, that alone gets us to 13
BYU or TCU beats Oklahoma and Florida beats Mizzou… there you go: LSU is 11
And if you want some insurance Rutgers over PennSt or MissSt over Ole Miss would certainly help too, but those would be significant upsets.
My only point: If the playoff were starting this year, we are definitely on the outside looking in currently… But we’re also DEFINITELY still in the running to nab one of the final spots. (Same for NY6 bowl this year).
This post was edited on 11/12/23 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:17 pm to BordyLSU
quote:
No. There will be auto qualifiers via conference champs that will eat up some spots
The only one that would really be “eating up” a spot this year would be Tulane. The rest will be in the top 12 anyway. So you’re talking about needing to be in the top 11, which is probably what we should expect in the future as well.
That said, I don’t see how LSU could move up that high over the next few weeks. If you look at last year’s final CFP rankings, the only 3-loss teams in the top 12 were Utah (who won the Pac 12) and Kansas State (who played in the Big 12 championship game and lost).
2021 - Same story, only Utah (who again won their conference).
2019 - Only Wisconsin and Auburn. Wisconsin lost in the Big 10 championship game and Auburn was #12 so actually would have been left out anyway for Memphis (highest ranked G5 champ).
2018 would have been interesting. Penn State, LSU, and Florida would have all been in as 3-loss teams who didn’t play in their conference championship games. But that year was definitely the exception to the rule.
So I think the moral of the story is that if you’re going to make it as a 3-loss team, you’re probably going to have to get to Atlanta to have a shot.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:28 pm to mdomingue
quote:
The current proposal to be approved is 5 plus 7. Power 4 (excluding the PAC12) plus the highest-ranked conference champion in the next tier (probably PAC12 this season). All of those would be in the top 10 already so if they get to 12 they would be in.
I think the way you have to look at it is that the highest ranked G5 champ will still get in, so top 11 will still be the bar most years. It would be the bar this year under 6+6 format if the expanded playoff had already started.
They are only looking at 5+7 (instead of 6+6) because the Pac-12 is going away.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:37 pm to lostinbr
Why not just use the top twelve teams in the two rankings. The teams with the top 12 in ranking points. Tie breaker goes to NCAA comissioner.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 3:39 pm to tenderfoot tigah
They just want to ensure the conference champs (specifically P4 and best G5 champ) is in the playoffs. Most if not all of the time the p4 champs will be in the Top12 anyway so the “auto-qualifer” thing doesn’t matter in regards to making the playoffs.
Most years it will essentially be the Top12, maybe save the G5 champ.
Most years it will essentially be the Top12, maybe save the G5 champ.
This post was edited on 11/12/23 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 11/12/23 at 4:58 pm to lostinbr
quote:
They are only looking at 5+7 (instead of 6+6) because the Pac-12 is going away.
True but if we believe the PAC12, it isn't going away so I took it as the idea that the PAC12 would exist as a G5 (or G6) school and back to them having a school already in the top 12. But 11 or higher is the only true safe zone if you don't win the SEC
Posted on 11/12/23 at 5:40 pm to bayoubaw18
The fact that this is even a question is why I hate the idea of the 12 team playoff.
This is not a championship level team.
Its been proven on the field.
Are we going to rationalize for scraps on how we can sneak in?
This is not a championship level team.
Its been proven on the field.
Are we going to rationalize for scraps on how we can sneak in?
Posted on 11/12/23 at 5:45 pm to PUB
Conference affiliation had nothing to do with it. It’s top 12, period.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 5:50 pm to bayoubaw18
NO
Posted on 11/12/23 at 5:56 pm to bayoubaw18
The same chance as getting into a NY6 game this year-- which is more than 0 but less than 50. We'll probably be 15 this week. We should be 14. Being behind Mizzou is dumb with the road head to head win and the extra loss is on the road against an undefeated nonconference opponent. Oklahoma and Oregon State will probably lose. That could get us to 12 but we need to get to 11 with the G5 automatic qualifier. Little chance of jumping the top 8, Penn State, or Ole Miss. It kinda comes down to Louisville. Just losing to FSU probably isn't enough. They probably need to lose 2/3 to Miami, Kentucky, and FSU. And of course LSU needs to beat A&M too which is hardly a lock. It's probably around a 10% chance in total honestly.
This post was edited on 11/12/23 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 11/12/23 at 6:01 pm to PUB
quote:
This - which probably means no more than 2 from any single conference?
There won't be a PAC anymore so it's the P4 Champs, the best G5, and 7 at large.
If each P4 gets a second team there are still 3 spots open.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 11:24 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Are we going to rationalize for scraps on how we can sneak in?
Yes. We’re fans.
All fans of LSU would be rooting for LSU to make the playoffs. (Or NY6 this year)
Did you just imply that you would prefer LSU not make the playoffs?? Wtf dude?
This post was edited on 11/12/23 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 11/12/23 at 11:30 pm to bayoubaw18
I'd say top 10 at least. In most years, there is at least one P5 conference champ outside of the top 12. There are usually multiple SEC teams in the top 10. You will have 1 loss conference runners-up.
Posted on 11/12/23 at 11:41 pm to Locoguan0
quote:
In most years, there is at least one P5 conference champ outside of the top 12.
This particular year, who is that?……Iowa? There’s currently really no other options for a P5 champion outside the Top12. Oklahoma maybe but if they win the Big12 they’ll be in the Top12
This year it’s gonna be basically the Top12(exception: G5 Tulane). The P5 champs this year will all be in the Top12.
This post was edited on 11/12/23 at 11:49 pm
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