re: Can someone logically explain the -21 game spread?

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Odds are set so the gamblers betting will place half the total money on each team. Ideally each team will have the same amount of money wagered on it. When you see the original odds change it’s because too much money is coming in on one team. The bookmaker uses the money he gains from the losing team to pay off the gamblers on the winning team, keeping 10% for himself. So the odds are set not on any realistic appraisal of each team but on what the oddsmaker is perceiving the gamblers are thinking. The Miss St and Troy losses figure high in the brains of the gamblers. However, vast numbers of gamblers don’t follow LSU that carefully and don’t realize the current LSU level of play is diffferent than that appearing against Troy. Even a lot of LSU fans have trouble getting their minds around that fact.

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This is the correct answer. Odds makers are setting there expectation of the score, they are setting the spread to try to get 50% to bet one way and 50% to bet the other. That way the bookie makes his 10%. Otherwise he has to cover the bet.

"I'd be estatic if Canada didn't call first one all game....."


Can you run that one by me again?????????

You remember losing to Troy?

What about getting steamrolled by Mississippi St?

Take your purple and gold glasses off and you will realize that the victories against Florida and Ole Miss mean absolutely nothing. Both programs are dumpster fires and we barely beat Florida and couldn't complete a pass to a WR against Ole Miss. How many passes do you think we will complete against Bama?

Some credit is due for beating an overrated Auburn team at home. Aranda saved O's arse that game with his halftime adjustments. Auburns staff is also incompetent which helped.

It's really easy to see why the spread is 21 and I'm kinda shocked that it's not more. O is lucky that the SEC is historically bad this yr or we would be going into this game with only 1 SEC win.

Oh, do yourself a favor and don't look at this years recruiting class that is filled to the brim with three stars. Are we suppose to have confidence in O's evaluations that he has unearthed all these sleepers this yr? I don't. What a coincidence that we are on track to have our worst recruiting class of the last decade during O's first year as head coach? But O can recruit

Alabama is REALLY good. LSU, not so much.

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Can someone logically explain the -21 game spread?

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Because we are either going to win by 2 points or get slaughtered.

Alabama is simply 3 touchdowns better than the Tigers.

However, using the Transitive Property of Football, I believe the game will play out thusly:

LSU won at Mississippi 40-26 (+14), rebalanced for HFA +18.
Alabama routed Ole Miss 66-3 (+63), rebalanced for HFA +59.

59-18=41, giving Bama a 4 point edge for HFA, they should win by 45.

Revised prediction for game:

LSU 10
Alabama 55

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We cannot throw a forward pass to a WR

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This. We have essentially refused to develop a real passing game to compliment the run - which you must do to beat good teams.

(Saban IQ minus O IQ) /3.5 = Point Spread

Different personnel. It’s not the uniform. It’s the person wearing it. Vegas thinks it’s a little more lopsided than it’s been in a while if for no other reason than youth and depth. Fortunately these factors do not solely determine the outcome.