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re: Burrow & SEC QBs drop rate vs NFL's - CFB Film Room Debunked

Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:13 pm to
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

he had a whole lot of work to do to get better.


I agree

quote:
He got better. Everyone likes him. He is a great leader


agree

quote:
Burriw was terribly inaccurate for a large part of the season. You don’t throw for less than 50 percent if you are accurate and timely


Disagree... There is more to this Stat than the number... as follows..

So the question to sort out the stat is to determine the following:

Of the incomplete passes he threw, how many account for the total number...

Bad Throws
Bad route running by receiver
QB threw the ball away to avoid sack
Receiver failed to catch a catchable ball

These (and other nuances) tell you more about your incomplete stats than the raw number



I've always heard that if the ball hits the receiver in the hands he's got to catch the ball. I don't care about anything else.
Posted by klrstix
Shreveport, LA
Member since Oct 2006
3506 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

I've always heard that if the ball hits the receiver in the hands he's got to catch the ball. I don't care about anything else.



I think it would be hard for anyone to disagree with this..
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

I've always heard that if the ball hits the receiver in the hands he's got to catch the ball. I don't care about anything else.


I think it would be hard for anyone to disagree with this



Believe me, when they see who posts it. They'll disagree strenuously. Even if it flys in the face of common sense.
Posted by Lonnie4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
9525 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:46 pm to
“ The offense has been in a upheaval”

When Coach O hires a man he proceeds to begin restricting 4 games into the season and fires after his 1st yr, I am hesitant to allow a upheaval that he is at least partially responsible for to give him much of an excuse for a disappointing O production once again.

Posted by Not Cooper
Member since Jun 2015
5022 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

Worst drop-rate in the NFL - 5.5%
Worst drop-rate in SEC - 25.3% (according to CFB) LOL

See this is the problem with the internet. No one looks for context, they see a number and take it as fact. If you actually did any research into what "drop rate" is, you'd see that the NFL measures drop rate as (# of drops)/(# of targets) whereas CFB measures drop rate as (# of drops)/(# of incompletions)

Of course these are going to be different numbers. CFB's drop rate stats say we dropped 19 passes this year - projecting that over to the way the NFL measures drop rate, our drop rate is 5.01%.
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

When Coach O hires a man he proceeds to begin restricting 4 games into the season and fires after his 1st yr, I am hesitant to allow a upheaval that he is at least partially responsible for to give him much of an excuse for a disappointing O production once again.



No matter why the team is where they are it's still where they are. The Canada issue has been beaten to death and I can't imagine that anyone would want to dredge it up right now.
Posted by PensaTigers
Pensacola
Member since Sep 2018
3255 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 1:53 pm to
Holy hell you're just wrong about absolutely everything. Burrow was actually pretty damn accurate. People aren't throwing anyone under the bus, the receivers are being appropriately blamed, the drops were insane and he had to throw away too much.

Finally, yes, the receivers did drop less and get open better late season, are you mentally ill?? Did you watch the games?
Posted by Lonnie4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
9525 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 2:54 pm to
“Canada issue”

More than a Canada issue, it’s an LSU offense issue. That’s why it’s been talked about and that’s why it’s relevant.

When we have an offense that’s not 8th in the SEC, it probably will not be dredged up anymore.

Coach O had a good year. His offense didn’t.
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

“Canada issue”

More than a Canada issue, it’s an LSU offense issue. That’s why it’s been talked about and that’s why it’s relevant.

When we have an offense that’s not 8th in the SEC, it probably will not be dredged up anymore.

Coach O had a good year. His offense didn’t



Certain members of the discussion group want to dictate what's on or off limits to the rest of the group. They're scared to death that some of the attention might get steered away from E or O. They certainly don't want any narrative running around that might weaken their anti coach O stories.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78280 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 4:36 pm to
Forget about O

He’s starting to recruit at a level where I’m ok with him just being a figure head type coach.

E needs to get better, and it’s almost painful to sit and wait to see if he is, when honestly everything else is looking good.
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 6:33 pm to
[quote]Forget about O

He’s starting to recruit at a level where I’m ok with him just being a figure head



He's more than a figurehead. Coach O is driving this resurgence. The LSU Tigers are his team and he deserves any credit this team gets for any success.


Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 7:00 pm to
quote:

He's more than a figurehead. Coach O is driving this resurgence. The LSU Tigers are his team and he deserves any credit this team gets for any success.
By now, the O-haters know they look stupid. But rather than admit it and move on, they're in a death-spiral of endless nonsense losing arguments.

Just the returning blue-chip ballers (who could have gone pro for big bucks) tell me all I need to know.

BTW, I thought O had NO CHANCE IN HELL of getting Burrow to LSU. Zero. Mainly because of O. I was NOT a fan of O.

But when his dad (career college coach), and his brothers (both former college players), and Joe picked LSU, I started to learn more about O. The guy is a solid big-time HC. End of story.

LSU should be great to watch over the next 5 to 10 years.
This post was edited on 1/17/19 at 12:38 am
Posted by Lonnie4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
9525 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 7:48 pm to
“ from E or O”

Well, since both of those are still in the having to prove themselves mode, it seems reasonable that they would get lots of attention. It’s not like prior HCs or OCs weren’t discussed repeatedly on the rant.

You might be a little overly sensitive to the normal criticism that comes from being the HC at LSU. Even Nick had to deal with it. Why wouldn’t you expect coach O to have to deal with it?
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78280 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 8:11 pm to
Lol he didn’t even hire his best coach!

Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

Lol he didn’t even hire his best coach



Sammy. How does this even matter?
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78280 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 10:29 pm to
You don’t think him inheriting one of the best defenses in the country matters?

He should get credit

Burrow was huge
Cole Tracy was HUUUUUUUGE and he went out and got those guys.

Otherwise we went 10-3 and that took us farther than usual.
This post was edited on 1/16/19 at 10:44 pm
Posted by TrevRollings29
Orlando
Member since Dec 2018
969 posts
Posted on 1/16/19 at 11:57 pm to
quote:

He's more than a figurehead. Coach O is driving this resurgence. The LSU Tigers are his team and he deserves any credit this team gets for any success.


What resurgence? I'm not trying to dog coach O right now, but you're overstating his accomplishments.

He's brought the recruiting back up to where it was before he took over. He's talked a couple of non first rounders into not going after watching others go early and not get drafted. (I'm not referencing Fulton - he actually could have been a first rounder after combine)

How many of Coach O's recruits will be starting next year (one's that weren't committed to LSU before he was named interim).

If coach O does good next year (better than 9-3 in the regular season, and a bowl win), I'll say we are getting better.

Until then, there's no data to suggest that. Once again, I'm all about him if he uses this next year to prove it, but he hasn't proved it yet. They still have to go win games on the field, if not -- byeeee.
This post was edited on 1/16/19 at 11:58 pm
Posted by boxcar willie
kenner
Member since Mar 2011
16107 posts
Posted on 1/17/19 at 12:21 am to
Coach O has proven himself as far as I, and most other LSU fans, are concerned and I see a resurgence in the program. If you dont, thats fine. Maybe you will after the 2019 season, but most likely not.
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/17/19 at 1:58 am to
quote:

What resurgence? I'm not trying to dog coach O right now, but you're overstating his accomplishments


Yes you are and yes you do.


quote:

), I'll say we are getting better



I'm sure that everyone is waiting on pins and needles.

quote:

Until then, there's no data to suggest that.



You mean there's no data for you. There's plenty of information that points to LSU trending up for reasonable people but you do you.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78280 posts
Posted on 1/17/19 at 10:16 am to
If we win more than 10 games I’m on board.

Winning 10 games this year has definitely cha he’s my opinion of O.

I’m
Just not going to crown him for going 10-3
This post was edited on 1/17/19 at 10:17 am
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