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Message
re: Bama opens as 7 pt favorite over LSU
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:29 pm to blueboy
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:29 pm to blueboy
No doubt. The team that vegas thinks is the better team opens as favorite. Then public moves the line once betting starts. I simply made the point vegas thinks bama is the better team. Hopefully they are wrong
2
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:30 pm to Last call
quote:
This is not good news for tiger fans. Vegas is better than anyone knowing who the better team is. Hope they are wrong on this one
So Vegas now thinks Bama is 2 points better than LSU....assuming 3 points for home field. This is TERRIBLE news. LSU is doomed.
Sure glad Florida went ahead and played and didn't give up against Ole Miss when the black bears were 7 points favorite over them....
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:33 pm to TheChosenOne
quote:
Yea, it is and LSU is ranked #1 in thier poll. This line was set to bring in action.
They know ESPN will suck Sabans dock all week and cause heavy action on Bama later in the week. To balance that out, they wanted heavy money on LSU early. Always remember, Vegas's dream is to have even money bet on both teams and score big on the juice.
They don't care about losing the few million placed on lsu with their fake early line. They'll balance that out during the week
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:33 pm to Last call
quote:
Last call
Dude quit making an arse of yourself on here. You have absolutely no idea what VEGAS does. I don't even think Bama has covered at home this year, as they are often overvalued because of their name. You are on a crusade today trying to sell doom and gloom because of a fricking point spread that most everyone on this site already knew what the opening line was going to be. Get a life kid, and stop trying to act like you are some Vegas expert. You are making an arse of yourself.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:35 pm to Last call
I think that there are many variables on what the "line" is, for any given house. (they're not all the same)
All of y'alls points are valid, but are only each one factor in a given house's line.
No matter what, they're trying to position themselves to make money. That's all you know for sure.
Certainly there are times when they may choose to set a line expecting the public to bet one way, and then they (the house) bet against the public... a true win-win if they're right.
All of y'alls points are valid, but are only each one factor in a given house's line.
No matter what, they're trying to position themselves to make money. That's all you know for sure.
Certainly there are times when they may choose to set a line expecting the public to bet one way, and then they (the house) bet against the public... a true win-win if they're right.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:39 pm to blueboy
quote:
It's definitely a concern.
stfu pussy. no it's not. I mean wtf did you think the line would be? Teams generally get 3-4 points for home field....and you already know that the media and public sentiment is strongly in favor of Alabama. If you think perception doesn't influence a line, you are absolutely ignorant.
Were they idiots to favor Ole Miss by 7 points against Florida? OM was never in that game....NEVER...yet Vegas thought they were literally 10 points better than Florida.....assuming 3 for home field.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:53 pm to Tigerinthehollow
They are not always right. Keep in mind georgia was a favorite vs bama
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:58 pm to GeeOH
Some food for thought gentleman......Bama is 1-7 ats in their last 8 at home. Perception plays the biggest part of these lines and their movement. Generally the money that comes in early are money from the sharps....the public generally gets their money in late. I'd rather sharp money moving the line early, than getting backed by the public late.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:58 pm to Last call
quote:
They are not always right. Keep in mind georgia was a favorite vs bama
they go with public sentiment and history...so just stop with the "concern" and "doom and gloom". I tell ya what...go bet bama on the money line.....I mean surely bama will win because VEGAS KNOWS.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:04 pm to Last call
quote:
They are not always right. Keep in mind georgia was a favorite vs bama
because they're not trying to be right, they're trying to balance betting. Let's say they really thought that Bama would win by 2 TD's, do you think there is any way in hell they would have set the opening line there?
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:14 pm to blueboy
quote:
It's not an arbitrary, meaningless number. Some of you who believe this are idiots. It's definitely a concern.
The open line vs Ole Miss was Bama-7... they lost by 6.
The open line vs Tennessee was Bama-16... they won by 5.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:18 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
quote:
I might go put 100 on Bama. I've never won a sports bet in my life
I will spot you the $100.00!!!!!!
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:22 pm to Clockwatcher68
Line back up to 7. ML still even.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:24 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:57 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:53 pm to dukke v
quote:
Any bama fans wanna play???? I'll give you bama and 3 points. Yup the Tigers win by 4 at least.......
quote:
by dukke v
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:54 pm to GRTiger
quote:
Line back up to 7. ML still even.
that's not a money line, just the price of the bet. It is a little odd how it has moved around though
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:55 pm to Last call
quote:
This is not good news for tiger fans. Vegas is better than anyone knowing who the better team is
quote:
That is not how it works
quote:
Of course it is how it works.
Good grief, how many times will this have to be explained?
The line that Vegas puts out is NOT how they think the game will end. It is what they think is necessary to get an equal number of bets for each team.
Didn't you ever notice that the line changes during the week? It isn't because Vegas has changed their mind about the outcome of the game. It is because there are more bets on one side and they need to change the line to try to get back to an even number for each team.
Trust me - I learned this from my family who REALLY know how it works.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:56 pm to ForeLSU
Are you sure? It moving around is why I thought it was the ML. Do we know what the ML is?
This post was edited on 11/1/15 at 6:58 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 6:59 pm to GRTiger
Why do Yall let dukkev post here still. He gonna screw it all up
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