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Message
re: Anyone concerned about the 6 point line
Posted on 10/9/08 at 12:46 pm to flyingtiger
Posted on 10/9/08 at 12:46 pm to flyingtiger
quote:
LSU is a lock +6 points...easiest $$ to be made all year.
no such thing as a sure bet in vegas
0
Posted on 10/9/08 at 12:49 pm to josh336
quote:
you really think florida gets +6 for it being played in the swamp?
Based on what I've seen historically and on what other experienced bookmakers have intimated, college teams get 4-6 pts and pro teams 2-3 pts for home field. And yes, teams with home field advantages like LSU or UF would likely get the upper end of that range.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 12:52 pm to Aktig
quote:
Unless the six pt. line means the game is fixed, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the game.
Right.
And, to be accurate, Vegas doesn't "set the line." Vegas booking agents come up with an original line, and the market dictates where it goes from there. It's actually bettors that set the line.
Apparently, not only do gamblers think Florida will win, but by 6+. Otherwise, gamblers would take LSU +6 and drive the line down.
Vegas couldn't give a flying fu** who is playing, or where, or when. They just want equal money being placed on both sides, take their sugar, and go home.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 12:53 pm to LLSSUU
I'm not concerned because I don't have any money on the line.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:01 pm to BayouBlitz
some people here in louisiana think 6 pts is not enough. i know this for a fact
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:04 pm to cheeser
quote:
some people here in louisiana think 6 pts is not enough. i know this for a fact
I don't doubt that. Apparently, there is pretty equal betting on both sides, as the line has stayed steady for the last few days.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:07 pm to LLSSUU
Nope, I don't gamble. Unless of course you mean the bet I make with my husband every year about who will win this game...and it that case it doesn't matter...I win either way. 
This post was edited on 10/9/08 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:12 pm to Cornholio
quote:
The line has absolutely nothing to do with what the outcome will be on the field.
I wonder what % of time the team favored by 5 or more points wins the game, regardless of whether they cover.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:39 pm to Stevo
I have read through this thread and it is very clear most of you do not know how lines work. It is a misconception that lines are set to get an even spit. True money moves the line but only to a point. Right now 70% of the money is on LSU, meaning that the line should drop, it hasn't. The reason is because the experets believe Florida will likely cover, and they are wiling to risk being exposed by 70% of the money on one side. They feel the smart money is on Florida right now, and are standing pat with their line.
A 6 pt. favorite wins around 65% of the time.
Cornholio is the biggest idiot on this board, btw. Clueless.
A 6 pt. favorite wins around 65% of the time.
Cornholio is the biggest idiot on this board, btw. Clueless.
This post was edited on 10/9/08 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 10/9/08 at 1:55 pm to MJRuffalo
quote:
Right now 70% of the money is on LSU,
On Wagerline, it's waaay below 70%. I know that Wagerline isn't huge, but it's a good indicator. Where are you getting the 70% from?
Wagerline
Everything that I've been told from bookees is that Vegas doesn't want a large lean either way, so as to avoid big losses.
Posted on 10/9/08 at 2:11 pm to MJRuffalo
quote:
have read through this thread and it is very clear most of you do not know how lines work. It is a misconception that lines are set to get an even spit. True money moves the line but only to a point. Right now 70% of the money is on LSU, meaning that the line should drop, it hasn't. The reason is because the experets believe Florida will likely cover, and they are wiling to risk being exposed by 70% of the money on one side. They feel the smart money is on Florida right now, and are standing pat with their line.
Finally someone who understands.
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