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Message
Aaron Nola signs massive new deal
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:08 pm
2
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:12 pm to TigerHaze
Hey Aaron! 
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:12 pm to TigerHaze
It's massive for us, but pennies on the dollar of what top pitchers usually make.
People are talking about a slow market, but trust me, he could have demanded much more. So either Nola is a rare breed who put the team first with his contract, or his agent is terrible. I suspect it's a bit of both.
People are talking about a slow market, but trust me, he could have demanded much more. So either Nola is a rare breed who put the team first with his contract, or his agent is terrible. I suspect it's a bit of both.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:15 pm to Metaloctopus
quote:
It's massive for us, but pennies on the dollar of what top pitchers usually make. People are talking about a slow market, but trust me, he could have demanded much more. So either Nola is a rare breed who put the team first with his contract, or his agent is terrible. I suspect it's a bit of both.
Well he isn't a free agent. This is just is an extension, some of which covers years where he was already under contract at way below market rates.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:16 pm to Metaloctopus
I think it was Moscona saying yesterday that he could have gotten more if he had waited 2 more years for his contract to be up. But, in that scenario, he would risk injury and not get his big pay day. I don't follow MLB at all so I'm guessing he was on something equivalent to a rookie contract in the NFL.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:18 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
I think it was Moscona saying yesterday that he could have gotten more if he had waited 2 more years for his contract to be up. But, in that scenario, he would risk injury and not get his big pay day. I don't follow MLB at all so I'm guessing he was on something equivalent to a rookie contract in the NFL.
Basically. He definitely traded upside for security. In terms of expected value, playing it out is probably the correct mathematical play, but on the off chance he blows out, it's nice to know you have $45 million (or $25 or so after taxes). And really the marginal value of each extra dollar when you already have $45 million is pretty low. And he is still young enough to get another good shot at free agency.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:21 pm to Metaloctopus
They didn’t want to go to arbitration with Nola. After Arenado got $26M from Rockies, Philadelphia knew Nola could fetch $20M + for next year. They chose to extend him instead. The deal could pay over $56M over the life of the deal.
The deal gets him to 30 yrs old. If he continues on this trajectory he will get PAID.
The deal gets him to 30 yrs old. If he continues on this trajectory he will get PAID.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:27 pm to The Seaward
quote:
Well he isn't a free agent. This is just is an extension, some of which covers years where he was already under contract at way below market rates.
I realize he isn't a free agent, but he still has a right to expect compensation that is comparable to other top pitchers. He isn't obligated to sign an extension, so he could have demanded more. But, apparently he didn't. The Phillies caught a huge break.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:30 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
I think it was Moscona saying yesterday that he could have gotten more if he had waited 2 more years for his contract to be up. But, in that scenario, he would risk injury and not get his big pay day. I don't follow MLB at all so I'm guessing he was on something equivalent to a rookie contract in the NFL.
Yeah, he could have hit it big in free agency. But he also could have gotten a lot of money in arbitration, and bet on himself to make it to free agency, healthy, knowing that even if he did get hurt, he'd still be set for life. I'm surprised he and his agent took the conservative route.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:35 pm to AllemanWC
quote:
They didn’t want to go to arbitration with Nola. After Arenado got $26M from Rockies, Philadelphia knew Nola could fetch $20M + for next year. They chose to extend him instead. The deal could pay over $56M over the life of the deal.
The deal gets him to 30 yrs old. If he continues on this trajectory he will get PAID.
of course, THEY didn't want to go to arbitration. you're basically explaining why the Phillies gave him this extension. I'm not questioning them. They got a huge bargain.
But Nola could have taken them to arbitration, gained financial security, and then hit free agency the following year for that mega deal. But, he obviously didn't think he needed that. Very fortunate for the Phils.
I'll also add that it's a bigger risk to hope that he stays on this trajectory by age 30. I'm not saying it's unlikely, it's just not as certain. Clayton Kershaw has seen his durability decline rapidly over the last couple of years, and he's currently 30. Nola is set now, either way. Again, I'm just surprised by the relatively low price tag, compared to others.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:42 pm to Metaloctopus
It’s definitely a great deal for the Phils. Very team friendly. Can’t blame Nola for signing it though even if it did cost himself some upside.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:51 pm to The Seaward
quote:
It’s definitely a great deal for the Phils. Very team friendly. Can’t blame Nola for signing it though even if it did cost himself some upside.
Nah, I don't blame him, per se. It's not like anyone NEEDS 100 million dollars, when 45 mil is more than enough. I'm surprised, but at least he's set.
Wish my Braves could get a deal like this some time. Sure makes it a lot easier to lock up the rest of your players.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 9:52 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 10:06 pm to Metaloctopus
quote:
Wish my Braves could get a deal like this some time
Freddie Freeman’s extension has worked out pretty damn good for the Braves.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 10:11 pm to The Seaward
quote:
Freddie Freeman’s extension has worked out pretty damn good for the Braves.
That was a good deal, for sure. But he's making 5 million a year more than Nola. Nola's isn't just a good deal for the Phils, it's almost a robbery.
And the Braves signed Freddie before he became elite. He was good, but was looking a little like a John Olerud type. In hindsight, it was a great deal.
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