re: Combined Recruited Personnel Score 2006-2011

DocBugbear is offically disqualified from the RANT's Most Clueless ranter of the Day Award.

Great job!

That's

You need to take into account the rivals star inflation. Every year it seems there is more 4 or 5 star players, than the previous year.

I understand why rivals does that - the subscribers want to see the progress of their team. So they give them their "progress" by inflating the stars.

Just divide by the average star number for all teams for that year.

I like the idea, but I think it needs something to account for the 85 scholarship limit. I just feel this is helping a team if they over sign and sign people who will not qualify. I mean LSU I think had Benton count as a 4* and a 5* for LSU in 2007 and 2008. If they over sign for a season maybe they should get docked. Depending on how those numbers look maybe decide on a range that is ok to over sign. This is so you can nail the schools that are abusing it. Obviously it is inflating schools who have highly touted recruits that never made it to the campus.

I think that this happens for every school to an extent; however, if it really stands out it could skew the results.

I would like to say I did some calculations comparing Miles and Saban's recruiting. I did this because it is a hot topic. I used the last four recruiting season for both Miles and Saban excluding any transition seasons such as Saban's 2007. I used 4 seasons to exclude the Miles transition season and for the fact I don't feel OSU is on the level of an LSU and Bama program.

Interesting facts:

Miles averages a better recruiting class(excluding the transition year) according to rivals than Saban's highest ranked class(2004) at LSU from 2002-2004.

Taking the last 4 recruiting classes with the conditions outlined above. 2 Star recruits will be excluded.

Saban Avg Star Rating is 3.76
Miles Avg Star Rating is 3.75

Now something to point out is that Saban has recruited 7 extra recruits ranked 3 stars or higher. Assuming that Miles would not add another 3 star since there is a difference to begin with we assume he would recruit at least a 4 star or better. Using the statistical chance of him recruiting a 5* out of the 7 recruits provides a very high chance of him having a rating of at least 3.77, but even if they were all 4 stars he would basically match the Saban average.

So all I can say is people can STFU about Miles not being every bit the recruiter as Saban. Just based off of rating they are basically equals. You can make the case I guess that Miles benefited from a program built by Saban; however, I think Saban benefited a lot from the media hype he got based off of Miles three straight ten win or better seasons and his NC. Now looking at the individual recruits and not their ratings is really hard IMO because then you have to factor in the coaching when discussing what the recruit became. IMO this shows how stupid it is to give Saban very much credit for any of the success Miles success at LSU.

I admit Hester as a 2 star was a great find by Saban.

If you used this as part of a system to predict future success you would see by removing RP it drops LSU around 9 spots due to the weak transition class of 2005. It also is a big deal since that was also the highly touted QB and the only guy with any experience at all on the team.

Again it is a well put together set of recruiting data and a very cool idea. If you project what the LSU score would be with the Miles average it would be around 163. This is slightly different than what it would really be because that would mean he would sign around 103 recruits in 4 years. He could not recruit that many players consistently and I don't know how that would change the score. I think it does show we are definitely where we want to be nationally in terms of team talent. I think Miles is putting us in a position to stay as one of the elites for a long time. I think he is a great personality and a great coach for this program.

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Does this data exist anywhere on the web as metadata? It would be fun to build a program to retrieve sports data from multiple online sources so that you could manipulate it and show it in a cool GUI.

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No... It is all just loaded into a spreadsheet.

To clarify.. are these the 'enrolled' rankings or the NSD rankings?

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It's what they have up on Rivals when you look at past years. I assume it is NSD enrolled.

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In that case.. it's not. They keep the NSD rank up. I'm not sure you could find the enrolled rankings easily though..

That seems like the best way to counter the 'over signing' loophole.

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They keep the NSD rank up.

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That's what I meant... poor wording on my part.

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interesting info. thanks for the work

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Welcome.

Dude you could work for the odds makers in Vegas. I am very impressed at your work. Great job!