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Started By
Message
re: Flood of 2011 - Frequently Asked Questions and Answers (Update 5-16)
Posted on 5/11/11 at 2:46 pm to zztop1234
Posted on 5/11/11 at 2:46 pm to zztop1234
From what I understand, the maximum allowed past Baton Rouge is 1,500,000 CFS. If Natchez is at 2,300,000 CFS they will have to put 800,000 CFS into ORCS and Morganza to maintain the ceiling in BR.
Other threads are saying they will try to maintain about a 50/50 ratio between these two structures to maintain stability. So that would put about 400,000 CFS through each.
Keep in mind, the 30 year average of the Mississippi River on any given day is 450,000 CFS (greater in spring, lower in fall). With that in mind, it means they would be putting the average flow of the Mississippi River into ORCS, another one through Morganza, and about three past BR.
This is a HUGE amount of water, no matter where it goes. Take this seriously. And pray the system works as designed, because the stress to it over the next few weeks is without precedent.
Other threads are saying they will try to maintain about a 50/50 ratio between these two structures to maintain stability. So that would put about 400,000 CFS through each.
Keep in mind, the 30 year average of the Mississippi River on any given day is 450,000 CFS (greater in spring, lower in fall). With that in mind, it means they would be putting the average flow of the Mississippi River into ORCS, another one through Morganza, and about three past BR.
This is a HUGE amount of water, no matter where it goes. Take this seriously. And pray the system works as designed, because the stress to it over the next few weeks is without precedent.
2
Posted on 5/11/11 at 2:51 pm to Bowe Knows
Thanks....
Posted on 5/11/11 at 5:12 pm to zztop1234
This is a flood of information.
Thanks to the OP. I just learned more about the situation in 5 minutes than I have learned in several days of following the story on TV.
Thanks to the OP. I just learned more about the situation in 5 minutes than I have learned in several days of following the story on TV.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 7:40 pm to Bowe Knows
quote:
Other threads are saying they will try to maintain about a 50/50 ratio between these two structures to maintain stability. So that would put about 400,000 CFS through each.
If it is 2.3 at Natchez, they will have to put the maximum 620 through ORCS.
I drove over Morganza today. Water much closer to top than I would like to see. I am hearing from grumbling from the inside that the Corps is waiting too long to open it, and that if it rises much more, they will not be physically able to open it.
I vaguely understood from what I heard that the hydraulic force of the water pushing out will create more resistance to upward movement of the gate than the equipment there can handle. I suppose they could roll a truck or rail mounted crane onto the structure to assist, but even at that, I did not like what I heard and what I saw.
The Corps is working feverishly to shore up the guide levee on the south side with Hesco boxes. They may have been doing it on the north side to, but I could not see it if they were.
Notably, there was a Blackhawk helicopter patrolling the area. I s___ you not.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 8:07 pm to JudgeHolden
Judge - this really seems like reason for concern. Do you think they may have waited too long to open Morganza?
Posted on 5/11/11 at 10:39 pm to Bowe Knows
Any idea or know where I can find info about possible bridge closing? i.e. I-20 in Vicksburg or Natchez.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 11:01 pm to NELAtigers
I'm sure if you Google Mississippi Department of Transportation, you should get notices on road closings there. Or the Vicksburg newspaper site?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:41 am to Bowe Knows
solid thread
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:52 am to colorchangintiger
quote:
solid thread
Yes. This proves once again why I get all my information from TigerDroppings.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:59 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
JudgeHolden
quote:
If it is 2.3 at Natchez, they will have to put the maximum 620 through ORCS.
According to this map Natchez is projected at 2.7. Could ORCS and Morganza realistically handle that much?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:24 am to lsuwahmom
The way I interpret this map is that they currently have 2,034,000 CFS going past Natchez with a predicted flow of 2,720,000.
With that 620,000 CFS will go through ORCS (with 575,000 already reached). That puts 2,100,000 predicted at Red River Landing with a current reading of 1,423,000. When Red River hits 1,500,000, that triggers Morganza opening.
They will have to put 600,000 CFS through Morganza to lower the River to the 1,500,000 CFS for Baton Rouge.
If the rate increase at NAtchez and Red River, they will have to increase the flow into ORCS and Morganza to handle the load.
I have read that ORCS was designed to have some backup areas to increase the flow there. Not sure about Morganza.
Either way, that is a TON of water moving towards us all.
With that 620,000 CFS will go through ORCS (with 575,000 already reached). That puts 2,100,000 predicted at Red River Landing with a current reading of 1,423,000. When Red River hits 1,500,000, that triggers Morganza opening.
They will have to put 600,000 CFS through Morganza to lower the River to the 1,500,000 CFS for Baton Rouge.
If the rate increase at NAtchez and Red River, they will have to increase the flow into ORCS and Morganza to handle the load.
I have read that ORCS was designed to have some backup areas to increase the flow there. Not sure about Morganza.
Either way, that is a TON of water moving towards us all.
This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 11:27 am
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:43 am to Bowe Knows
quote:
The way I interpret this map is that they currently have 2,034,000 CFS going past Natchez with a predicted flow of 2,720,000.
With that 620,000 CFS will go through ORCS (with 575,000 already reached). That puts 2,100,000 predicted at Red River Landing with a current reading of 1,423,000. When Red River hits 1,500,000, that triggers Morganza opening.
They will have to put 600,000 CFS through Morganza to lower the River to the 1,500,000 CFS for Baton Rouge
This would all be true if the width and depth of the river in B.R. is the same as Natchez. As the volume of the container changes (river depth*width*length)the CFS changes or am I missing something.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:59 am to RPC4LSU
When you look at the actual numbers, this may be the case.
Current Natchez mark is 2,034,000 with 575,000 flowing through ORCS. Yet the Red River number is 1,423,000 CFS (not the simple math 1,459,000 CFS).
And BR is at 1,315,000 CFS without Morganza open.
But the Project Flood Flow uses basic math when the real numbers have other variables that change it to a degree.
Current Natchez mark is 2,034,000 with 575,000 flowing through ORCS. Yet the Red River number is 1,423,000 CFS (not the simple math 1,459,000 CFS).
And BR is at 1,315,000 CFS without Morganza open.
But the Project Flood Flow uses basic math when the real numbers have other variables that change it to a degree.
This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 5/13/11 at 12:03 am to Kim Jong Ir
quote:
quote:
solid thread
Yes. This proves once again why I get all my information from TigerDroppings.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 12:16 am to heygirl
Nm
This post was edited on 5/13/11 at 12:30 am
Posted on 5/13/11 at 9:08 am to RPC4LSU
quote:
This would all be true if the width and depth of the river in B.R. is the same as Natchez. As the volume of the container changes (river depth*width*length)the CFS changes or am I missing something.
You're kind of missing something. What you're describing is not the volume changing - just the dimensions. Flow should stay the same: flow in = flow out. What does change based on the dimensions is velocity and height...
With that said, the flow (cfs) WILL change if storage is added. The added storage is what will change the volume (the cubic feet part of cfs), not the dimensional changes of the river channel. I am guessing the models might play it conservative by not adding in some storage volume that occurs when the river finds its way out of levees and into back-channel areas.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 1:53 pm to Bowe Knows
Here's a Blog that explains the spillways for simple minded folks like myself. LINK
Posted on 5/13/11 at 2:18 pm to The Dude
I haven't seen this picture up yet, would explain to some, exactly where the Morganza is, and how big its path is.
quote:
In southern Louisiana, the bed of the Mississippi River is so far below sea level that a flow of at least a hundred and twenty thousand cubic feet per second is needed to hold back salt water and keep it below New Orleans, which drinks the river.
Read more New Yorker; The Control of Nature.
This post was edited on 5/13/11 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 5/13/11 at 3:05 pm to The Dude
Good link. I'll work on getting that posted to the top tonight. Although I will have to cut and paste some stuff up and down. TD has a 7900 character limit on posts....never knew that until the flood!
The Bowe Abides....
The Bowe Abides....
This post was edited on 5/13/11 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 5/13/11 at 5:02 pm to Bowe Knows
Thank you sir, sometimes I have my moments.
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