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re: Votto is a Catcher Season Long Thread
Posted on 3/28/14 at 12:35 am to Tigerlawyer
Posted on 3/28/14 at 12:35 am to Tigerlawyer
Just because I love discussing baseball and the prospect a new season brings. Here are some more opinions of the draft values.
Basically I looked at buys and decided if I liked them or not and state my reasons. I tried to stay away from the $1 and $2 players, as well as the big money first round guys (though there are two big named players critiqued).
Thomas: Brian Dozier, $4.
224/.312/.414 2013 slash line. 18 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 72 runs and 66 RBIs. For comparison, Jedd Gyorko cost $13, had a .745 OPS, 23 HRs, 1 SB, 62 R's and 63 RBIs in roughly 70 less at-bats
I say the price was right!
Papz: Ian Kinsler, $25.
Over the last three seasons, Kinsler has posted a .515 OPS at Comerica Park in 54 at-bats. In the same period of time, Kinsler's road OPS has been .690 - 182 points below at Arlington. The Tigers' new second baseman has also seen a decline in home runs --32, 19 and13 -- and stolen bases -- 30, 21 and 15 -- over that time.
I say the price wasn't right!
VKC: Joey Votto, $37.
With all due respect to the man responsible for inspiration of the league name, Votto knocked in 73 RBIs in 2013. In the offseason, Votto lost the fourth highest OBP and third highest run scorer in Shinn Soo Choo. Replace Choo at the top with Billy Hamilton and slide Brandon Phillips into the two-hole and I could see possibly a similar scenario playing it.
Although Votto is essentially a lock for a +.900 OPS, I say the price wasn't right!
Florida Tigah: Hyun Jin Ryu, $11.
Ryu broke into the States with a phenomenal 2013 campaign. The hefty lefty posted a terrific 3.00 ERA in 190+ innings, despite only striking out 154 batters. The FIP and xFIP suggest a slight uptick in ERA this season, and I tend to gravitate to that thinking. But a <3.40 era is still very much achievable and I think he notches it.
I say the price was right!
Whitie: Will Venable, $8.
A good gamble for the price. Venable saw a major uptick in isolated power in 2013 -- .216 up from .165 the year before. Venable also saw his HR/FB jump 10% in 2013 from the previous year. His BB% dipped by over 3%. It's conceivable that Venable posts 2013 numbers, but I'm calling it a career year. Venable will still steal his 20+ bags, but goes back to being <10 HR producer.
I say the price wasn't right!
Basically I looked at buys and decided if I liked them or not and state my reasons. I tried to stay away from the $1 and $2 players, as well as the big money first round guys (though there are two big named players critiqued).
Thomas: Brian Dozier, $4.
224/.312/.414 2013 slash line. 18 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 72 runs and 66 RBIs. For comparison, Jedd Gyorko cost $13, had a .745 OPS, 23 HRs, 1 SB, 62 R's and 63 RBIs in roughly 70 less at-bats
I say the price was right!
Papz: Ian Kinsler, $25.
Over the last three seasons, Kinsler has posted a .515 OPS at Comerica Park in 54 at-bats. In the same period of time, Kinsler's road OPS has been .690 - 182 points below at Arlington. The Tigers' new second baseman has also seen a decline in home runs --32, 19 and13 -- and stolen bases -- 30, 21 and 15 -- over that time.
I say the price wasn't right!
VKC: Joey Votto, $37.
With all due respect to the man responsible for inspiration of the league name, Votto knocked in 73 RBIs in 2013. In the offseason, Votto lost the fourth highest OBP and third highest run scorer in Shinn Soo Choo. Replace Choo at the top with Billy Hamilton and slide Brandon Phillips into the two-hole and I could see possibly a similar scenario playing it.
Although Votto is essentially a lock for a +.900 OPS, I say the price wasn't right!
Florida Tigah: Hyun Jin Ryu, $11.
Ryu broke into the States with a phenomenal 2013 campaign. The hefty lefty posted a terrific 3.00 ERA in 190+ innings, despite only striking out 154 batters. The FIP and xFIP suggest a slight uptick in ERA this season, and I tend to gravitate to that thinking. But a <3.40 era is still very much achievable and I think he notches it.
I say the price was right!
Whitie: Will Venable, $8.
A good gamble for the price. Venable saw a major uptick in isolated power in 2013 -- .216 up from .165 the year before. Venable also saw his HR/FB jump 10% in 2013 from the previous year. His BB% dipped by over 3%. It's conceivable that Venable posts 2013 numbers, but I'm calling it a career year. Venable will still steal his 20+ bags, but goes back to being <10 HR producer.
I say the price wasn't right!
This post was edited on 3/28/14 at 1:18 pm
1
Posted on 3/28/14 at 12:38 am to Tigerlawyer
Swamie: Jed Lowrie, $6.
Lowrie played more than 100 games for the first time his career last season (156). A player who has always demonstrated potential when healthy, Lowrie finally lived up to that. Yet Lowrie saw a 4% decrease in BB% from the previous year and an outlier BABIP (.319) from years prior. There's also his injury concern.
It's only $6, but I say the price wasn't right!
Zeph: Adam Wainwright, $25.
Seven starting pitchers went for more money than Wainwright in the draft. In a QS league, i believe that is about right. Wainwrights default value is driven by his win expectancy. An innings eater and a steady performer in ERA, WHIP and a consistent +8K/9, Wainwright will keep Zeph competing in the ratio stats.
I say the price was right!
TChamp: Manny Machado, $10.
One of the game's top young talents. But Machado hasn't learned to take a walk yet, doesn't steal bases and is coming off offseason knee surgery and consequently will start the year on the DL. When Machado plays, he will hit towards the top of a good lineup, so the R's and RBIs will be there, but I'm not so sure the power will be. Machado's isolated power in 2013 actually decreased from his small sample of 2012. I believe he doesn't reach the teens in long balls for 2014.
I say the price wasn't right!
Prison Mike: Brandon Phillips, $15.
Seems like a decent price at first glance. But Phillips is a mediocre OBP guy (.320 career) and posted his worst SLUG% since 2005 (.396). Phillips stole only five bases, but notched over 100 RBIs. He'll now move from behind Votto to in front of him, so adjust for a slight increase in runs and a major decrease in RBIs. I don't think he reaches double-digit steals, either.
I say the price wasn't right!
Chatagnier: Aaron Hill, $11.
When you compare Hill to what Phillips and Gyorko cost, it's obvious this was a great price. Though Hill has battled injuries in his past, the fact is he's healthy right now and hits in a great ball park and a good lineup. The one concern is that Hill stole just one bag in 2013 after swiping 14 the year prior. Yet as long as the former Tiger stays healthy, he should outperform that $11 buy.
I say the price was right!
Lowrie played more than 100 games for the first time his career last season (156). A player who has always demonstrated potential when healthy, Lowrie finally lived up to that. Yet Lowrie saw a 4% decrease in BB% from the previous year and an outlier BABIP (.319) from years prior. There's also his injury concern.
It's only $6, but I say the price wasn't right!
Zeph: Adam Wainwright, $25.
Seven starting pitchers went for more money than Wainwright in the draft. In a QS league, i believe that is about right. Wainwrights default value is driven by his win expectancy. An innings eater and a steady performer in ERA, WHIP and a consistent +8K/9, Wainwright will keep Zeph competing in the ratio stats.
I say the price was right!
TChamp: Manny Machado, $10.
One of the game's top young talents. But Machado hasn't learned to take a walk yet, doesn't steal bases and is coming off offseason knee surgery and consequently will start the year on the DL. When Machado plays, he will hit towards the top of a good lineup, so the R's and RBIs will be there, but I'm not so sure the power will be. Machado's isolated power in 2013 actually decreased from his small sample of 2012. I believe he doesn't reach the teens in long balls for 2014.
I say the price wasn't right!
Prison Mike: Brandon Phillips, $15.
Seems like a decent price at first glance. But Phillips is a mediocre OBP guy (.320 career) and posted his worst SLUG% since 2005 (.396). Phillips stole only five bases, but notched over 100 RBIs. He'll now move from behind Votto to in front of him, so adjust for a slight increase in runs and a major decrease in RBIs. I don't think he reaches double-digit steals, either.
I say the price wasn't right!
Chatagnier: Aaron Hill, $11.
When you compare Hill to what Phillips and Gyorko cost, it's obvious this was a great price. Though Hill has battled injuries in his past, the fact is he's healthy right now and hits in a great ball park and a good lineup. The one concern is that Hill stole just one bag in 2013 after swiping 14 the year prior. Yet as long as the former Tiger stays healthy, he should outperform that $11 buy.
I say the price was right!
This post was edited on 3/28/14 at 1:09 am
Posted on 3/28/14 at 12:39 am to Tigerlawyer
Hot Stove: Kyle Seager, $16.
Starlin Castro at $16 was too easy, so we chose Seager here. Seager scored a career high 79 runs in 2013 and will now bat in front of Robinson Cano. Over the last three seasons, Seager has slightly increased his BB%, OBP%, SLG% and ISO. I believe those trends continues upward in 2014.
I say the price was right!
House of Cards: Matt Carpenter, $20.
In his first season as a full-time starter, Carpenter ran away with the runs scored title and posted an .873 OPS. But he did that with a .359 BABIP. Now, in 2012 he did have a .346 BABIP, so it's not crazy to think he could still post a high OPS this season. But the fact is Carpenter doesn't steal bases and he doesn't hit home runs. He still reaches 100 runs scored, but doesn't run away with that title again, and sees a slight dip in AVG and therefore OPS.
I say the price wasn't right.
Nyjer Please: Carlos Beltran, $14.
Beltran, who blasted 56 home runs over the last two seasons, now moves from a a decent hitter's park to Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. But Beltran's BB% saw a sharp 4.2% decline and the ISO was below .200 for the first time since 2005 in seasons where he's played in over 100 games. Beltran turns 37 next month and I still expect at least 20 home runs, but the RBI and R's should see a decrease in a Yankee uniform (can't believe I'm saying that, crazy).
I say the price wasn't right!
Starlin Castro at $16 was too easy, so we chose Seager here. Seager scored a career high 79 runs in 2013 and will now bat in front of Robinson Cano. Over the last three seasons, Seager has slightly increased his BB%, OBP%, SLG% and ISO. I believe those trends continues upward in 2014.
I say the price was right!
House of Cards: Matt Carpenter, $20.
In his first season as a full-time starter, Carpenter ran away with the runs scored title and posted an .873 OPS. But he did that with a .359 BABIP. Now, in 2012 he did have a .346 BABIP, so it's not crazy to think he could still post a high OPS this season. But the fact is Carpenter doesn't steal bases and he doesn't hit home runs. He still reaches 100 runs scored, but doesn't run away with that title again, and sees a slight dip in AVG and therefore OPS.
I say the price wasn't right.
Nyjer Please: Carlos Beltran, $14.
Beltran, who blasted 56 home runs over the last two seasons, now moves from a a decent hitter's park to Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. But Beltran's BB% saw a sharp 4.2% decline and the ISO was below .200 for the first time since 2005 in seasons where he's played in over 100 games. Beltran turns 37 next month and I still expect at least 20 home runs, but the RBI and R's should see a decrease in a Yankee uniform (can't believe I'm saying that, crazy).
I say the price wasn't right!
This post was edited on 3/28/14 at 1:09 am
Posted on 3/28/14 at 1:02 am to Tigerlawyer
Just going to go ahead and use this as the season long thread. I updated the OP and made a pretty rankings summary seen below.
This post was edited on 3/28/14 at 1:09 am
Posted on 3/28/14 at 7:21 am to Tigerlawyer
Lotta 2B on that list
Posted on 3/28/14 at 10:42 am to TthomasJR
It's what jumped out at me, bro!
Posted on 3/28/14 at 10:48 am to Tigerlawyer
Oh I know, just saying 2B is a crap shoot
Posted on 3/28/14 at 11:00 am to TthomasJR
That's why I liked you taking Dozier for $4!
Posted on 3/28/14 at 11:17 am to TthomasJR
quote:
Oh I know, just saying 2B is a crap shoot
Yeah I stayed away from 2nd base because I didn't think there was much difference between a 10th ranked and 15th ranked 2nd baseman. I spent money elsewhere.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 11:21 am to PSU2LSU
I love me some Dozier the plan was for him to be on my team and thought I could get him for a buck or two... I would have pulled the trigger for $5 but that would have killed me on a couple of other players at the end of the draft I was targeting.
Plus I had taken Altuve so the need wasn't pressing.
Plus I had taken Altuve so the need wasn't pressing.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 1:39 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
This may be a dumb question, but how is my team ranked ahead of another in pitching and batting and then four spots behind in the overall? What am I missing? Lol
Posted on 3/29/14 at 2:03 pm to House_of Cards
Does it really matter?
Posted on 3/29/14 at 2:42 pm to papz
Check the standings on the site, gonna look like that all season anyway
Posted on 3/29/14 at 4:25 pm to House_of Cards
I ranked your pitching and hitting based on about where they would fall IMO, and then I thought I liked in your case 12 other teams better. There is no real rhyme or reason. I more enjoy the write-ups more and put more thought into that.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 10:07 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
HONK added Sergio Santos, Tor RP from Waivers to Bench for $26
Damn.
When I learned about the Janssen injury, I literally ran across my place to the computer to add him as fast I could only to remember waivers did not go through until 11.
Sniped on Ross. I bid $1.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 10:13 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
What the frick is this? On the Players tab:
But when I check the league settings:
I will be fricking furious if games lock at the first game. If that does not change, then I will have to stay up tonight and remake the league.
quote:
Your league uses a roster locktime setting of Daily - Lock at First Game of Day.
But when I check the league settings:
quote:
Lineup Changes
Daily - Lock Individually at Scheduled Gametime
I will be fricking furious if games lock at the first game. If that does not change, then I will have to stay up tonight and remake the league.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 11:18 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Sniped on Ross. I bid $1.
I'll take it
Posted on 3/31/14 at 9:24 am to Tigerlawyer
I'm not good at this FAAB stuff. Put in 2 bids and lost both, so now I have no one to fill that spot in my lineup until Thursday.
Live and you learn I guess
Live and you learn I guess
Posted on 3/31/14 at 9:28 am to TthomasJR
quote:
I'm not good at this FAAB stuff. Put in 2 bids and lost both, so now I have no one to fill that spot in my lineup until Thursday. Live and you learn I guess
You can put in multiple bids releasing the same person and just rank them. I had 10 waivers yesterday for 2 spots created by the DL. I just ranked them in the order I wanted the players.
Posted on 3/31/14 at 9:29 am to TthomasJR
You totaled $2 in your bidding. Seems to me you really didn't want those guys.
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