re: NFL Training Camp News & Notes Thread

Some good mid round receivers at an ADP value IMO:


Chris Hogan (ADP: WR31; 71 overall)
Hogan's ADP is still too low. Before missing Weeks 10-13 and 15-17 with a shoulder injury, Hogan was balling out last year. In eight games in Weeks 1-9, Hogan posted 33/438/5 -- equating to 13.3 PPR FPG (WR17). Hogan was one of fantasy football's best WR2 plays to start 2017, totaling more top-30 PPR scoring weeks (5) than former-teammate Brandin Cooks (4) in the Patriots first eight contests. In that span, Hogan led New England in targets inside of the ten-yard line (7), he caught five or more passes in 6-of-8 games, and had the same total share of team targets as Cooks, too (17.4%).

On a macro scale, Hogan may be one of the Pats' most underrated receivers in Tom Brady's career. Rob Gronkowski (12.44 AY/A) is the only Pats' pass catcher that owns a higher individual adjusted YPA rating on passes from Brady over his entire career than Hogan (10.56), among qualifying receivers. With Cooks in LA and since Edelman is coming off a torn-ACL, is 32-years-old, and is popped for PEDs for the first four games -- Hogan is an incredibly attractive WR2/3 in Round 6.




Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: WR33; 77 overall)
Over the last two years, teammate Demaryius Thomas has seen 8.9 targets per game (24.7% share) while Sanders’ opportunity is quietly right behind Thomas’ (8.5 targets per game; 23.5% share) in that span. Drafters are being treated to a tasty three-round discount off of Sanders (ADP: WR33) compared to Thomas (ADP: WR20) because of Sanders' ankle issues that caused him four full games last season.

New QB Case Keenum's favorite target in Minnesota was Adam Thielen, who ran 50% of his routes from the slot last season. Keenum and Thielen's connection from the interior was excellent, culminating in the NFL's league-leading target rate (25%) on slot routes and the second-most productive duo on a yards gained per route run basis (2.11). Over the last two years, 26% of Sanders' total routes have originated from the slot while Thomas is stuck on the outside 81% of the time. With the addition of boundary receiver Courtland Sutton in the NFL Draft, Sanders is likely the Broncos' near full-time slot man in 11-personnel. Per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception metrics, Sutton ran 84% of his routes on the outside in his final year at SMU.

With Keenum's background of throwing heavily to slot receivers that get open quick off the snap mixed with his near-equal usage with Demaryius Thomas over the last two seasons, Sanders is arguably the most mispriced player on the re-draft board. It's within the range of outcomes for Sanders to be Denver's top scoring fantasy wideout.




Corey Davis (ADP: WR28; 66 overall)
Davis has many elements working for him in Year Two: Early NFL Draft capital (No. 5 overall in 2017), a new innovative coaching staff calling the shots, a flash of potential as a rookie, and plenty of opportunities available. By all accounts, Davis fits the mold for a sophomore blowup.

Last year, Davis averaged 3.8-catches and 42.6-yards per game in the 11 contests in which he played over 65% of team snaps. Keep in mind, Tennessee was one of the slowest, low-volume teams in the NFL last year. Only four squads were slower in seconds in between snaps (pace), and only three teams ran fewer passes per game. A rookie fantasy receiver living off of a sluggish, inefficient, low-volume attack isn't an easy business. Still, relative to the team, Davis saw plenty of opportunities. In fact, in the ten games where both receivers were on the field, Davis (21%) came away with a higher target share than Rishard Matthews (17%) while Delanie Walker (23%) led the team. Remember, Davis had ankle surgery in January and strained his hammy during training camp last year. This season, Davis is fully healthy and separated from the Mularkeysaurus.





Randall Cobb (ADP: WR39; 88 overall)
The reasons for his deflated ADP are simple: Cobb underwent "minor" ankle surgery a few weeks ago and has dealt with recurring ankle, hamstring, and shoulder problems since his monster 2014 season (91/1287/12). Even though he'll only be 28-years-old when the season starts, Cobb is entering his eighth year and now has four known occurrences of ankle issues in his playing career.

Still, at cost, Cobb's situation is too attractive to avoid. Even with Jordy Nelson still on the team, Cobb averaged 7.0 targets and 12.0 FPG across Rodgers’ last 19 starts spanning the last two years. Last season specifically, Cobb averaged 8.0 targets per game and 13.2 FPG in Rodgers’ starts (5.5-catches, 55-yards, 0.33-TDs per contest). Had Aaron Rodgers played the entire 2017 season, Cobb would have returned to the top-24 fantasy receivers if he maintained his 13.2 FPG-pace for 16 games, finishing as the WR16 over Demaryius Thomas.

Now, Nelson is gone -- leaving 88 targets behind while Rodgers himself has an incredible history of supporting multiple high-end fantasy receivers in the same season. In his career, Rodgers has supported an other-worldly 14 top-24 fantasy wideouts (WR2 or better). More specifically, Rodgers has supported two fantasy WR2’s (top-24) simultaneously six times in his eight full seasons with 15+ games played. If healthy, Cobb and Davante Adams have a high probability of becoming the seventh WR2 (or better) duo in nine years.



Corey Davis obviously, but Sanders in a contract year and Cobb going for nothing.

How is Hogan still at 71 overall?

Thats beautiful.

I can't pass him up at 71 in that offense, Ill target him in every draft at that price, he was top 5 before he got hurt last year.

Dont think the Decker signing will affect Hogan's value as a sleeper at 71?

To me Luck was a great QB2 grab late but his ADP is up to 8.12. Still good value with a ton of upside but a bit of a risk. Have a feeling he will climb more leading up to the season.

quote:

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John Ross is getting more first-team reps in 2-WR formations. It seems like Ross will get every opportunity to be the outside WR on the opposite side of A.J. Green.

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I’m only going to be in two this year. I find that I enjoy it more when I’m not spread so thin

I’m more excited than usual for football season this year, not sure why

Corey Coleman traded to the Bills

Sucks for Coleman

They prob sign Dez now and just be confident in Josh Gordon