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re: FSBDL 2018 - MWG is your Champion

Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:37 am to
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:37 am to
RE: Matt Harvey

On yesterday's start

quote:

His 12 swings and misses represented the highest total he’d produced since June 10, 2016 against the Brewers. Via Brooks Baseball, his four-seam fastball averaged 95.6 mph and reached 97.2, while his slider averaged 89.6 and reached 92.0.


Last three starts

quote:

Still, it was Harvey’s third strong outing in a row against a contender. He allowed two runs in six innings in the aforementioned June 21 outing against the Cubs, and then one run in 6.2 innings against the Braves on June 26. Over the course of those three outings and 18.1 innings, he allowed just 13 hits and three runs while striking out 14 and walking just two (and plunking three)



K and BB % fron NYM to CIN

quote:

On a per-nine basis, Harvey’s strikeout rate hasn’t really budged (until Sunday, it was actually lower as a Red), but on a per-plate appearance basis, it’s climbed from 16.3% as a Met to 18.4% as a Red — that, while his walk rate fell from 7.3% to 5.5%, so his K-BB% has increased from 8.9% to 12.9%.



Slider is currently shoving (love this one)

quote:

the whiff rate on his slider has more than doubled, from 8.3% to 20.3% — a higher rate than in any of his full seasons, and well above his career 15.3% mark.

Entering Sunday, even including his time with the Mets, batters had hit just .167/.184/.264 for a 25 wRC+ against the pitch this year, comparable to its effectiveness in 2015 (.158/.187/.218, 20 wRC+)




There may be a real adjustment here

quote:

A couple of additional differences stand out between Harvey’s New York and Cincinnati tenures this year. Since the trade, he’s throwing first-pitch strikes with far more regularity (61.8%, up from 55.3% and just one point below his career average). He’s also getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone with greater frequency (28.7%, up from 21.1%, but still a far cry from the 32-35% range of his heyday).



So sharks, who is buying a reclaimed 29 yo Matt Harvey?

I have a few samples to pass out to remind you of what could possibly be brewing..

to reddfigg Here you get a guy who registered a 2.53 ERA over his first 427 IP

to swamsy On your tray you will find 449 Ks in those 427 IP

to DJ You loves walks and hits, so you will find a tidy 1 WHIP

to LE I know you love clutch guys, you will find a 3.04 ERA across 27 postseason IP, including WS experience



Any questions, sharks?
Posted by reddman
Member since Jul 2005
78195 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:40 am to
But if you don't trust him, why should we?

Also, what are you looking for in return?
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51395 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:41 am to
quote:

Any questions, sharks?



Yea, why are you, a contender, trying to trade such a stud?
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:47 am to
quote:

#Rays SS prospect Wander Franco is youngest in the Appalachian League at 17 yrs old. How's he handling his pro start?

Hitting .326/.340/.500 with .372 wOBA and 112 wRC+, 2HR, 2 SB and maybe most impressively hit safely in all but 1 game & only struck out 5 times in 47 PA.




Haven't had a phenom since Seager. This time next year looks like I might get the feeling of owning one again.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:49 am to
quote:

But if you don't trust him, why should we?


Im only putting out the data for one to consume. You need to decide if you trust or not.

quote:

Yea, why are you, a contender, trying to trade such a stud?


I have a team 2.74 ERA (1st) 1.11 WHIP (2nd) across 762 IP (4th) w/ 64 QS (1st), paired with a 9.48 K/9 (5th)

As a contender, I am trading an area of strength to improve elsewhere. Seems like the right move
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Also, what are you looking for in return?



I could use an RP, a hitter (possibly a swiss army knife guy), Id even consider the right prospect

I will not deal him to a team in the current top 6, fwiw
Posted by rondo
Worst. Poster. Evar.
Member since Jan 2004
77515 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

a hitter (possibly a swiss army knife guy),



you'd look good in a Niko Goodrum
Posted by CQQ
Member since Feb 2006
17048 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:20 pm to
I'm IRT all day FYI FWIW
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:27 pm to
Nah i dropped him and he's done bout what i expected him to
Posted by rondo
Worst. Poster. Evar.
Member since Jan 2004
77515 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:32 pm to
You should hold on Harvey IMO
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:34 pm to
Last 3 comparison

Player A

BOS @BOS @BAL

K/9 6.5
ERA 4.5
FIP 2.56
xFIP 3.38
BABIP .328



Player B

CHC @ATL MIL

K/9 6.87
ERA 1.46
FIP 2.40
xFIP 3.74
BABIP .255



Since you chose the last 3 games, that’s the sample size I went with.

Do you think there’s enough difference here to go with one over the other?

Posted by MrWiseGuy
Member since Dec 2009
27834 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:41 pm to
God I’ve been out of the loop the past month.

How has Harvey looked? That K/9 rate ain’t great, but some solid hitting clubs that he’s limiting.

Who last dropped Harvey? When did he get snatched up?
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:43 pm to


I prefer to contextualize FIP/xFIP and especially BABIP, so to answer blindly, there is a huge difference in a 4.5 and a 1.5 ernie
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104012 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

I should be able to be more active in making my team worse now in your eyes DJ.


Should have waited a few more days.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104012 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

a hitter (possibly a swiss army knife guy)


Still on the table, if you want to reconsider.
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 1:02 pm to
that’s kinda what FIP and xFIP are there for, to put a pitcher’s results into context. But yeah, we don’t score fips

Shutting the Red Sox down two times in a row was a lot to ask too.

And Harvey’s 3 aren’t pushovers either, but as a Brewers fan, I’ll object to saying that was really the Brewers with Cain, Yelich and Aguilar not playing.
This post was edited on 7/2/18 at 1:04 pm
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74428 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 1:10 pm to
quote:


Since you chose the last 3 games, that’s the sample size I went with.



I chose the last 3 games bc it coincided with the uptick in velo, which then coincided w success, just to be clear

In that time frame, Harvey has

20% IFFB - league leader is DeGrom at 19.4%
48% GB - would slot 18th overall
22% LD
25.5% soft contract - would slot 3rd best overall
83.3 LOB% would slot 8th best between Degrom and Scherzer
0% HR/FB

The BABIP slots for me.

Just glancing over Wade Leblanc, which who I believe you are comping, 6% of his FBs are leaving the yard and 0% are of the INF variety, nearly 84% med/hard contact rate (soft contact only 15%) w/ a LD of nearly 30%, 56% LOB. Dont think he is unlucky, merely he's getting knocked around by some RH heavy pop
This post was edited on 7/2/18 at 1:11 pm
Posted by MrWiseGuy
Member since Dec 2009
27834 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 1:17 pm to
Wait a minute, Avisail Garcia has 118 at-bats and zero walks?

W
T
F
Posted by rondo
Worst. Poster. Evar.
Member since Jan 2004
77515 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 1:34 pm to
walking is for chumps
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290780 posts
Posted on 7/2/18 at 1:45 pm to
You could have Trivino for Harv
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