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re: First time in a PPR league, did I overestimate the value of receptions?

Posted on 9/11/20 at 5:10 am to
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 9/11/20 at 5:10 am to
Here is some more info on Hardman, diddly.
quote:

Evan Silva
@evansilva

Mecole Hardman is a tantalizing talent but played under 30% of #Chiefs offensive snaps in Week 1 and would likely need a severe Tyreek Hill injury to become a bankable #fantasyfootball contributor.

quote:

?Mike Clay
@MikeClayNFL

Mecole Hardman played 19 (28%) of 67 possible offensive snaps, per @NextGenStats

quote:

Mike Clay
@MikeClayNFL

Justifying a bench spot for Mecole is Hard, man

As has been mentioned here by people that give great advice, dropping Hardman for a high upside rb is the play.
Posted by Mpd31
Member since Nov 2019
2904 posts
Posted on 9/11/20 at 8:09 am to
Hardman’s value is going to hurt this year by the value of CEH. They seemed content to run the ball more. Hardman probably won’t have much value unless they get into a shoot out with someone or Hill gets hurt. Looked like Hardman is currently the wr4 in that offense with hill, Watkins, and robinson. You also have Kelce who will command a lot of targets
Posted by SoItGoes
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2016
821 posts
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

quote: Chris Thompson



Should be rostered in every PPR league imo


Really surprised he is available. He went early in every league I am in.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82031 posts
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:40 pm to
Jags have the lowest win total in the league. He'll do well until he gets hurt
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/8/20 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

dropping Hardman for a high upside rb is the play.


Wrong as usual TL

Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:10 pm to
Hardman is WR44 in .5 PPR and he's still the 4th WR on the team. What are you basing your conclusion on? He was always going to have a few good games here and there. Do you feel comfortable starting him?

The RB group listed in your OP is terrible and Hardman is your 5th best WR. He would be 6th is Campbell didn't get hurt.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 4:18 pm
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Hardman is WR44 in .5 PPR and he's still the 4th WR on the team.


3rd actually. He gets way more snaps, targets, catches, and yards than Robinson.

quote:

He was always going to have a few good games here and there.


7.3, 16.5, and 10.7 in a row. That’s not a fluke.

quote:

Do you feel comfortable starting him?


Over my other 3 WRs? No. But if I need to start him I wouldn’t be upset.

Hardman is the definition of a lotto WR. If Hill or Watkins go down with an injury he will most likely put up some good points. Even then, being WR3 in that offense whip returning punts and kicks is not an awful option.

Someone mentioned that last year Hardman had the opportunity to step up during Tyreek Hill’s injury and he didn’t.

Truth is, he did. In the weeks Hill was injured (2-5), Hardman scored:

15.1
17.4
2.9
10.8

I expect him to do even better this year. He’s no longer a rookie.

Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:49 am to
If he doesn't catch a long TD then he's barely even flex worthy. You can't count on that so you have no idea when to start him. If you're not going to start him and your RBs suck, what's the point of having him on your roster?

What RBs do you have now? The ones you listed originally were an RB2 and some other guys that are bye week fill ins.

Eta: I was gonna suggest to try to trade him since he had 2 good weeks in a row, then I looked at the trade charts. He's not listed on 2 that I looked at and the other one he's listed with guys like Mike Williams, DeSean Jackson, Keelan Cole, Cole Beasley, Zach Pascal and Golden Tate. All of those guys are on waivers in my 10 team league much less a 12 team league.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 9:02 am
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:19 am to
quote:

If he doesn't catch a long TD then he's barely even flex worthy. You can't count on that so you have no idea when to start him.


He’s no longer just a deep threat. They use him in the red zone all the time. 3 yard TD pass last week and they’ve gone to him twice for 2 point conversions this year.

quote:

What RBs do you have now? The ones you listed originally were an RB2 and some other guys that are bye week fill ins.



Miles Sanders (Who is 100% RB1 in PPR)
Devin Singletary
Mike Davis
Swift
Phillip Lindsay
Zack Moss
quote:

I was gonna suggest to try to trade him


Why though? Once again, he’s an injury away from being an option with serious boom potential.
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:24 am to
Because your RBs are absolutely horrible. As Gyno said earlier in the thread, you need to apply that strategy to your RBs where your weakness is. Your WRs are strong, even if there is an injury ahead of Hardman you would still be making decisions on whether or not to start him. This is about roster construction.

Right now that you have Davis and Campbell got hurt, the move to keep him doesn't look as bad. But, when CMC and Zack Moss comes back you're really gonna struggle at RB. I'm still trying to understand how you came to the conclusion that I was wrong about dropping Hardman for an upside RB in week 2.
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:29 am to
And for the record, my RBs are doing fine. Sanders will be good. Mike Davis will continue to put up some great points until CMC comes back.

Singletary is a great flex option. He’s scored 7.8, 8.6, 14.1, and 16.2 while only scoring one TD. It shows that he’s consistent enough to contribute to your team without scoring TDs. When the TDs start rolling in he will do even better.

Once CMC comes back I will have to re-evaluate. Hopefully Swift will be starting by then like the Lions best writers seem to think. Hopefully Phillip Lindsay will be doing ok. If neither of them are good enough, I’ll deal a WR for a RB
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:38 am to
quote:

But, when CMC and Zack Moss comes back


I don’t think Moss’s return will affect Singletary all that much. First of all, even when Moss was “starting”, Singletary ended up getting more carries. He also averages 4 receptions per game.

Not to mention the fact that Singletary might’ve taken the starting job from Moss. Moss has been awful, averaging 2.8 YPC in the first two weeks

And finally, Singletary is on a really good team that can move the ball. I expect him to be a flex option all year long.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 9:39 am
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:41 am to
quote:

Singletary is a great flex option. He’s scored 7.8, 8.6, 14.1, and 16.2 while only scoring one TD.

The second two games were without Moss who is the goal line back along with Josh Allen . He will have to break off long runs to score most of the time. You're listing him as a great flex option because of injury and he will be your RB2.

The Eagles are a mess. Sanders may end up as a top 12 back, but it isn't certain.

I hope Lindsay will be good too because I have him as well, but I wouldn't want to count on him as my RB2 either.

It's your team and it should be fun, but nothing has happened in the first 4 weeks that suggests anyone was wrong about you dumping Hardman for a RB in week 2.

Hopefully it all works out. Good luck, kid.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Wrong as usual TL




He’s a boom or bust flex play. At best. His TD last week was a 3 yard tip “pass” on an end around.

Things like that aren’t reliable.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 9:47 am
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72018 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:46 am to
quote:

Mike Davis will continue to put up some great points until CMC comes back.


Perfect. That was the whole idea of adding bellcow RB handcuffs

quote:

Singletary is a great flex option. He’s scored 7.8, 8.6, 14.1, and 16.2 while only scoring one TD


Bad numbers when moss played. Good while Moss is out. Allen led the team in rush TDs in ‘18 and ‘19 by a wide margin and is on pace to do so again

Sanders problems are more so in that offense. But he gets PIT and BAL next. Things don’t appear to be getting better there

Don’t lull yourself into a false sense of security. Hardman ain’t tilting scales for you one way or another. Hopefully you’ve been rising josh Allen to victories
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:54 am to
quote:

The second two games were without Moss who is the goal line back along with Josh Allen . He will have to break off long runs to score most of the time. You're listing him as a great flex option because of injury and he will be your RB2.


I made a sacrifice. I have one good RB and 4 question marks that can end up being good options, which isn’t desirable, but I also have 3 top 15 WRs.

Personally I prefer solid, consistent WRs, with a carousel at RB than I do solid RBs with a carousel at WR. Waiver RBs are less likely to bust than waiver WRs.

It’s how I got 2nd last year. My starting RBs at the end of the year were Singletary, Bo Scarborough, and Raheem Mostert. All picked up on waivers. All put up points.

quote:

I hope Lindsay will be good too because I have him as well, but I wouldn't want to count on him as my RB2 either.


I’m counting on Swift, Lindsay, Singletary, or Moss ending up being an RB2 option. Like I said, Lions beat writers seem to think Swift will end up being the starting RB eventually and is only serving as the passing down back because he was hurt during fall camp.

If none of them step up, I will trade Deshaun Watson or one of my WRs for an RB2.

quote:

Hopefully it all works out. Good luck, kid.


3-1 baby
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:00 am to
quote:

He’s a boom or bust flex play.


Exactly! He has a higher boom potential than any WR on waivers. If I were struggling for WRs, I’d drop him for a guy like Curtis Samuel or Tee Higgins who are more consistent.

But I have no need for a WR who scores 7-10 points. They would ride my bench all year long no matter what. However, if there is an injury to a Chiefs WR, Hardman is suddenly a guy who can score 15+ and is a WR2/Flex option.
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93696 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:33 am to
quote:

3-1 baby

All the more reason to be playing for rest of season. I would look at the CMC owner's team to see if he has a viable RB and see if you can package Davis and Hardman after 2 good games to set you up for the rest of the way. Or you could use Kupp even to trade if you wanna keep Hardman for bye weeks.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 10:35 am
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
27641 posts
Posted on 10/14/20 at 2:12 pm to
Sammy Watkins got hurt last week. Now Hardman is the top WR on waivers this week. See why I drafted him now?
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