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2017 Undervalued Breakout/Sleeper Picks
Posted on 6/16/17 at 8:58 am
Posted on 6/16/17 at 8:58 am
Who are players you're looking to draft who are being undervalued or who you think will be breakout sleepers?
A couple of guys I'm targeting:
Lamar Miller - (3rd round) Lamar keeps falling to me in the third and I think he's wildly undervalued. Last year was an anomaly as I think he finishes top 7 at the position.
Isaiah Crowell - (3rd-4th round) same thing as Lamar, except Crowell actually played well last year. Browns have improved the O-line and Crowell will finish top 10 at rb.
Keenan Allen - (5th round) he's been injury prone but last year was a lacerated spleen, that's not an injury that hinders his running/catchin ability and doen't make him injury prone. Two consecutive years of injures (again, last year's was a freak accident) has him way undervalued. He's a solid Wr2 with the ability to be a top 5-10 WR.
Coby Fleener - he was a bust last year, but with Cooks getting moved and another year in the system I think he takes a big step forward. He'll be around at the tail end of your draft which is when I tend to draft TE anyway.
DeVante Parker - I was big on Landry the past two years thinking he'd be the go-to WR in Miami but it sounds like Parker is going to be the guy who makes noise this year, and for some reason he's still going low on draft boards.
Samaje Perine/Joe Mixon - both of these guys are going to be taking over the lead back role on their respective rosters and while Mixon has gotten a lot of noise Perine should also excel.
A couple of guys I'm targeting:
Lamar Miller - (3rd round) Lamar keeps falling to me in the third and I think he's wildly undervalued. Last year was an anomaly as I think he finishes top 7 at the position.
Isaiah Crowell - (3rd-4th round) same thing as Lamar, except Crowell actually played well last year. Browns have improved the O-line and Crowell will finish top 10 at rb.
Keenan Allen - (5th round) he's been injury prone but last year was a lacerated spleen, that's not an injury that hinders his running/catchin ability and doen't make him injury prone. Two consecutive years of injures (again, last year's was a freak accident) has him way undervalued. He's a solid Wr2 with the ability to be a top 5-10 WR.
Coby Fleener - he was a bust last year, but with Cooks getting moved and another year in the system I think he takes a big step forward. He'll be around at the tail end of your draft which is when I tend to draft TE anyway.
DeVante Parker - I was big on Landry the past two years thinking he'd be the go-to WR in Miami but it sounds like Parker is going to be the guy who makes noise this year, and for some reason he's still going low on draft boards.
Samaje Perine/Joe Mixon - both of these guys are going to be taking over the lead back role on their respective rosters and while Mixon has gotten a lot of noise Perine should also excel.
This post was edited on 6/16/17 at 9:00 am
5
Posted on 6/16/17 at 9:39 am to BigOrangeVols
For reference, here are the ADPs of these players. All data is from MFL, which is the most active format at this time of year.
Lamar Miller- 34
Isaiah Crowell- 43
Keenan Allen- 37
Coby Fleener- 168
DeVante Parker- 73
Joe Mixon- 29
Samaje Perine- 89
Lamar Miller- 34
Isaiah Crowell- 43
Keenan Allen- 37
Coby Fleener- 168
DeVante Parker- 73
Joe Mixon- 29
Samaje Perine- 89
Posted on 6/16/17 at 9:47 am to DallasTiger45
Mixon is the only one who's ADP seems to be on par with what I expect from him. The rest seem to be great values.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:21 am to BigOrangeVols
Some sneaky WR1 on their team going mid to late
Garçon, Pierre
Woods, Robert
Conley, Chris
Garçon, Pierre
Woods, Robert
Conley, Chris
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:36 am to BigOrangeVols
Undervalued
Emmanuel Sanders - bottom line #s the past 3 years are 76/1,013/5. ~WR24 on most rankings. I expect their QB play to improve slightly.
Fitz - led the league in receptions last year. don't see him falling off significantly unless Palmer goes down.
Moncrief - undervalued due to injuries. Good bounce back candidate.
Enunwa - no one else in NY. You can get him very late.
Overvalued:
Alshon - injuries plus a new offense with a 2nd year QB. Definitely would rather have Sanders at a better price.
Danny Woodhead - SD was a great place for Woodhead. Don't see him thriving in BAL with Flacco and 2 other backs they are invested in.
Garçon - Argument can be made that they don't have anyone else to throw to. I think someone like Enunwa, who can be taken much later, has a higher ceiling.
Emmanuel Sanders - bottom line #s the past 3 years are 76/1,013/5. ~WR24 on most rankings. I expect their QB play to improve slightly.
Fitz - led the league in receptions last year. don't see him falling off significantly unless Palmer goes down.
Moncrief - undervalued due to injuries. Good bounce back candidate.
Enunwa - no one else in NY. You can get him very late.
Overvalued:
Alshon - injuries plus a new offense with a 2nd year QB. Definitely would rather have Sanders at a better price.
Danny Woodhead - SD was a great place for Woodhead. Don't see him thriving in BAL with Flacco and 2 other backs they are invested in.
Garçon - Argument can be made that they don't have anyone else to throw to. I think someone like Enunwa, who can be taken much later, has a higher ceiling.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:46 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Conley, Chris
I think this is a bit misleading, he's at best the 2nd target on the team behind Kelce, and likely 3rd behind Hill as well
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:47 am to Brodeur
Fitzgerald has faded last two seasons in second half. Averaging almost 8 less PPR points on the back end each year. Age is a factor. He will be overdrafted
Brian hoyer will put close to 100 balls on garçon in shanny offense
The jets have no QB to produce fantasy relevant WR at this point
Brian hoyer will put close to 100 balls on garçon in shanny offense
The jets have no QB to produce fantasy relevant WR at this point
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:51 am to DallasTiger45
That's why I specifically said WR dally. It's still a Alex smith led O, so production is capped anyway. I'm not ready to crown tyreek, what do you think ?
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:51 am to GynoSandberg
This is the year Ebron breaks out to a top 5 performance
Posted on 6/16/17 at 10:57 am to Brodeur
quote:
Danny Woodhead - SD was a great place for Woodhead. Don't see him thriving in BAL with Flacco and 2 other backs they are invested in.
They've invested the most money in him. And they're missing a bunch of targets and throw the ball 700 times. He's set up to thrive.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:06 am to GynoSandberg
I'd crown him over Conley
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:17 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
That's why I specifically said WR dally. It's still a Alex smith led O, so production is capped anyway. I'm not ready to crown tyreek, what do you think ?
I feel like Conley can definitely be useful but league context will matter a lot. I see very few scenarios where he turns into an every week starter as a WR2 in a 12 team league. Might gamble on a guy with more upside in some formats
As far as Tyreek goes, if he goes in the 3rd round like our dynasty draft then no chance I own him.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:23 am to Byron Bojangles III
quote:
Danny Woodhead
I'm just skeptical of them using him the same way in BAL. Rivers is a checkdown machine.
Do you think he'll get close to 20 red zone carries?
Plus the guy is 32 coming off an ACL.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:27 am to TthomasJR
Conley has assumed Maclin's spot in the offense, and can play Hill's deep role when they move hill around. We know he will be on the field for lack of better options.
Maclin put up 87/1088/8 in 2015 in that role and had averaged 7.5 targets per game in 27 games in that role
Conley is a 6'3" 4.3 guy to boot
Hill's production was predicated on the big play last year. He had games where he didn't catch a ball, games of modest catch/yardage. He's still 5'8" 185. So if you want to go all in on a guy like that popping off 50+ yard TDs every game, go for it
Ya I won't own a piece of him anywhere. Will be hedging w Conley. If hill can continue what he did last year w the big plays he will be the most exciting player in NFL history. I just don't see it
Maclin put up 87/1088/8 in 2015 in that role and had averaged 7.5 targets per game in 27 games in that role
Conley is a 6'3" 4.3 guy to boot
Hill's production was predicated on the big play last year. He had games where he didn't catch a ball, games of modest catch/yardage. He's still 5'8" 185. So if you want to go all in on a guy like that popping off 50+ yard TDs every game, go for it
quote:
As far as Tyreek goes, if he goes in the 3rd round like our dynasty draft then no chance I own him
Ya I won't own a piece of him anywhere. Will be hedging w Conley. If hill can continue what he did last year w the big plays he will be the most exciting player in NFL history. I just don't see it
This post was edited on 6/16/17 at 11:29 am
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:33 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Hill's production was predicated on the big play last year. He had games where he didn't catch a ball, games of modest catch/yardage. He's still 5'8" 185. So if you want to go all in on a guy like that popping off 50+ yard TDs every game, go for it
Hill is 5'10 and has elite traits across the board, just as Conley did.
The difference? Hill has been productive in his career (college and NFL)
quote:
Conley is a 6'3" 4.3 guy to boot
Oh yeh. Dude's physical abilities are off the charts.
This post was edited on 6/16/17 at 11:36 am
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:47 am to Brodeur
quote:maybe not but he'll get a bunch of redzone targets
Do you think he'll get close to 20 red zone carries?
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:47 am to MrWiseGuy
quote:
Hill is 5'10 and has elite traits across the board, just as Conley did
Hill measured 5'8" at his pro day ?
quote:
The difference? Hill has been productive in his career (college and NFL)
Conley led UGA in receiving his last two years while they gave Gurley Chubb n Marshall 300+ carries . Raw numbers aren't gonna be there, but he flashed big play potential. Per target numbers are there with Hill last year, and even still he was -17 rec and -63 yards on 14 less targets.
We will see what happens with a fresh season. Kelce and Hill put the league on notice last year. Just may be enough for Conley to wiggle open
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:49 am to GynoSandberg
quote:what was Conley's production when Maclin was hurt? Just curious. But I'm with you I even read Maclin groomed Conley last year to essentially take over for him.
Conley has assumed Maclin's spot in the offense, and can play Hill's deep role when they move hill around. We know he will be on the field for lack of better options.
Maclin put up 87/1088/8 in 2015 in that role and had averaged 7.5 targets per game in 27 games in that role
Conley is a 6'3" 4.3 guy to boot
Posted on 6/16/17 at 11:56 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
We will see what happens with a fresh season. Kelce and Hill put the league on notice last year. Just may be enough for Conley to wiggle open
I like Conley as a Rob Meachem type. Size and speed to get downfield.
40-50 catches, 650-750 yards. Something in that range of outcomes.
Posted on 6/16/17 at 12:01 pm to GynoSandberg
Reek is 5'8" officially
I won't own him either. He'll have his moments but 5'8" WRs have a hard time being da man
I won't own him either. He'll have his moments but 5'8" WRs have a hard time being da man
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