explain "firewall" for a first grader.

It’s a build up of early ballots for a party that the other party needs to overcome on Election Day to win, the bigger the firewall the bigger the opposing party turnout needed. In 2020 it was extremely high for democrats and day of turnout (allegedly) did not exceed the firewall so Trump lost. Firewall is significantly diminished this year and experts have estimated democrats needed like 600k to feel comfortable and they’re not where near that

Are people forgetting the Amish is a guaranteed 250k for Trump

This is the first time they're voting. Dems needed a 750k wall not a 500k wall.

thank you. I thought I was following it correctly.

Try 30 K.

quote:

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It’s a build up of early ballots for a party that the other party needs to overcome on Election Day to win, the bigger the firewall the bigger the opposing party turnout needed. In 2020 it was extremely high for democrats and day of turnout (allegedly) did not exceed the firewall so Trump lost. Firewall is significantly diminished this year and experts have estimated democrats needed like 600k to feel comfortable and they’re not where near that

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This is a good explanation. I’ll just add that the big question around this election is: What did the Republicans gain with their increased early vote? Did they get new voters to vote, which is the goal, or did they get voters to vote early who would have voted on election day?

A later developing story is: What did the Democrats lose with their decreased early vote?

Biden/Democrats had a 1.1 million lead in early votes heading into election day in 2020.

Republicans outvoted Dems by 1 million on election day but it wasn't enough and they lost by 80,000.

This year it is a given that more Republicans will vote early than in 2020 and more Democrats will vote on election day than in 2020. At what rates this will happen is a guestimate, but the prognosticators have cut the early vote cushion in half.

So instead of Democrats needing a 1.1 million vote head start like last time, they think they only need a 550,000 vote head start. That's the "firewall". They only got 410,000 or so which means they need a great turnout on election day to fend off the Trump wave.

A few caveats:

(1) These numbers are based on party registration, not actual votes. The party registration data for early ballots received is as follows:

Democrat - 996,000
Republican - 587,000
Independent - 205,000

We don't know how many crossover votes there are (Registered Democrats who voted Trump and vice versa) or how the Indpendents will split. But it's fair to call that a wash.

(2) There are still mail-in ballots floating around out there that were requested but not yet sent back or received. Those totals are:

Democrat - 197,000
Republican - 125,000
Independent - 75,000

Some of these will be returned in person or via the mail today. Some wont. Return rates are clocking close to but less than 2020.

A firewall is a network security device or software that monitors and controls incoming and outgoing network traffic based on predetermined security rules. Its primary purpose is to create a barrier between a trusted internal network and untrusted external networks, like the internet, to protect systems from unauthorized access, malware, and cyber attacks.