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Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Posted on 5/2/21 at 9:32 am
Posted on 5/2/21 at 9:32 am
There are certain things that make a winning NBA team. Simplistically, a team needs to be in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. That should be the goal.
This team is ranked #10 in offensive rating, and #27 in defensive rating.
Historically, teams with great offenses have a rotation of players who all shoot 55% TS% or better, with a few players at or above 60% TS%. You can get away with one sub-55% TS% player as long as they are a defensive specialist.
The Pelicans rotation players who fit that criteria are:
Jaxson Hayes 70%
Zion Williamson 65.2%
Steven Adams 60.1%
Willy Hernangomez 59.1%
Brandon Ingram 58.5%
Josh Hart 56.6%
Lonzo Ball 55.8%
Pretty solid. Good enough for a top 10 offense, but that’s still a few guys short of a full rotation above 55%. In order to move up from #10, the Pelicans need 2 or 3 more role players with TS% over 55%.
The one area where they need to make the biggest leap is defensively. Another area is 3-pt shooting. Pelicans rank #23 in 3-pt percentage and #25 in attempts. They need guys who can play defense and hit the 3. They need some dogs.
This team is ranked #10 in offensive rating, and #27 in defensive rating.
Historically, teams with great offenses have a rotation of players who all shoot 55% TS% or better, with a few players at or above 60% TS%. You can get away with one sub-55% TS% player as long as they are a defensive specialist.
The Pelicans rotation players who fit that criteria are:
Jaxson Hayes 70%
Zion Williamson 65.2%
Steven Adams 60.1%
Willy Hernangomez 59.1%
Brandon Ingram 58.5%
Josh Hart 56.6%
Lonzo Ball 55.8%
Pretty solid. Good enough for a top 10 offense, but that’s still a few guys short of a full rotation above 55%. In order to move up from #10, the Pelicans need 2 or 3 more role players with TS% over 55%.
The one area where they need to make the biggest leap is defensively. Another area is 3-pt shooting. Pelicans rank #23 in 3-pt percentage and #25 in attempts. They need guys who can play defense and hit the 3. They need some dogs.
5
Posted on 5/2/21 at 10:29 am to PrimeTime Money
we need a true 3pt sniper.
ingram and ball, although both are good shooters are nowhere near great or elite that makes those playoff caliber teams elite.
defense needs to improve too, but that takes time and another solid piece
ingram and ball, although both are good shooters are nowhere near great or elite that makes those playoff caliber teams elite.
defense needs to improve too, but that takes time and another solid piece
Posted on 5/2/21 at 11:20 am to PrimeTime Money
You need advanced stats to tell us we need to be better on defense and shooting the 3?
This post was edited on 5/2/21 at 11:21 am
Posted on 5/2/21 at 11:23 am to England_Pelican
Right 
Posted on 5/2/21 at 5:48 pm to PrimeTime Money
Chris Paul/ Rondo type guard that takes over and make winning plays in the last 3 minutes of 4th quarters
Posted on 5/2/21 at 5:56 pm to Louisianabound88
Chris Paul if agree with. We’d be a 4 seed probably at this point.
Rondo would probably have publicly demanded a trade back in January.
Rondo would probably have publicly demanded a trade back in January.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 7:30 am to JohnnyKilroy
Soooo, what I take out of this is we need all new players, minus one or two.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 5:30 pm to PrimeTime Money
Shamit put out this graphic today
I'd love to see the list of names in the highlighted area. That's the kind of player the Pels need. Obviously you can't get Lukas and won't want the Westbrooks, but maybe some of the guys in the middle to back are acquirable and could give you enough self/team creation to make the crunch time offense work.
quote:
Shamit Dua @FearTheBrown 1h
Level 1:
Decided to plot this for all players with at least 1000 poss. played. Highlighted quadrant is top 25%ile in both assists/100 and self creation. The findings are interesting.
Bottom left quadrant has a lot of shooters and 3+D guys. Bottom right quadrant has as lot of centers
I'd love to see the list of names in the highlighted area. That's the kind of player the Pels need. Obviously you can't get Lukas and won't want the Westbrooks, but maybe some of the guys in the middle to back are acquirable and could give you enough self/team creation to make the crunch time offense work.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 9:09 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
what the Pelicans need to win
A miracle.
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