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Louisiana Early Voting final stats
Posted on 10/28/20 at 4:28 am
Posted on 10/28/20 at 4:28 am
Early voting in Louisiana ended last night. Almost twice the number voted early compared to 2016 but the Rep/Dem ratio is the same. Trump won LA by 20pts in 2016.
Here are the final numbers for 2020 early voting:
Total Votes: 964,181
Democrat: 425,298
Republican: 360,803
Other: 178,080
In Person: 817,897
Absentee: 146,284
Here are 2016's final early vote numbers for comparison:
Total Votes: 531,555
Democrat: 236,743
Republican: 205,219
Other: 89,593
In Person: 468,539
Absentee: 63,016
EDIT: I should've added Louisiana's registered voter stats. Here they are as of Oct. 1:
Democrat: 1,248,613
Republican: 1,004,537
Other: 801,184
Total Voters: 3,054,334
Here are the final numbers for 2020 early voting:
Total Votes: 964,181
Democrat: 425,298
Republican: 360,803
Other: 178,080
In Person: 817,897
Absentee: 146,284
Here are 2016's final early vote numbers for comparison:
Total Votes: 531,555
Democrat: 236,743
Republican: 205,219
Other: 89,593
In Person: 468,539
Absentee: 63,016
EDIT: I should've added Louisiana's registered voter stats. Here they are as of Oct. 1:
Democrat: 1,248,613
Republican: 1,004,537
Other: 801,184
Total Voters: 3,054,334
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 5:52 am
6
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:42 am to GeauxTrain
Looks like every dem in the state showed up for early voting. Blew their load already I bet.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:43 am to LSU Tiger 216
A lot of LA registered Dems vote republican.
They just haven’t changed their party affiliation.
Trump by 15
They just haven’t changed their party affiliation.
Trump by 15
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:45 am to arseinclarse
I will vote R on Nov 3rd 
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:45 am to GeauxTrain
The same percentage of republicans who voted in 2016 voted in 2018. Nothing to see here.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:46 am to GeauxTrain
One factor to keep in mind is the raw numbers.
Yes, the percentages are close to the same, I think 44% to 37% for D and R, respectively, in 2020 as they were in 2016. As you stated, Trump won LA by around 60% to 40% in 2016. However, the raw numbers will be much more weighted to early voting in 2020 due to the sheer increase in volume.
Trump will have to make up a similar percentage in 2020 as he did in 2016 but he will have to do so with less bodies because as you say, early voting numbers have almost doubled in volume. How will this shift in weighted numbers affect the final vote tally? If he exceeds his performance on Election Day 2016, he may post similar results in 2020. If he matches his performance on Election Day 2016, his margin of victory may be smaller in 2020. If he fails to match his performance on Election Day 2016, his margin of victory may be substantially less in 2020.
The results of increased weight of early voting is not critical in LA because, as you said, Trump won in 2016 by around 20 points. He is going to win LA again. The only question is will Trump win by a similar margin or a less similar margin. The impact of increased weight of early voting is, however, a crucial factor in states that Trump won by razor thin margins in 2016, such as PA, WI, and MI.
Now, there are variables that can impact the outcomes of increased weighted early voting numbers. Specifically, how many Ds are voting for Trump, and, moreover, voter registration outreach since 2016. I’ve been told that Rs made significant voter registration outreach gains since 2016 in states like PA and FL.
Yes, the percentages are close to the same, I think 44% to 37% for D and R, respectively, in 2020 as they were in 2016. As you stated, Trump won LA by around 60% to 40% in 2016. However, the raw numbers will be much more weighted to early voting in 2020 due to the sheer increase in volume.
Trump will have to make up a similar percentage in 2020 as he did in 2016 but he will have to do so with less bodies because as you say, early voting numbers have almost doubled in volume. How will this shift in weighted numbers affect the final vote tally? If he exceeds his performance on Election Day 2016, he may post similar results in 2020. If he matches his performance on Election Day 2016, his margin of victory may be smaller in 2020. If he fails to match his performance on Election Day 2016, his margin of victory may be substantially less in 2020.
The results of increased weight of early voting is not critical in LA because, as you said, Trump won in 2016 by around 20 points. He is going to win LA again. The only question is will Trump win by a similar margin or a less similar margin. The impact of increased weight of early voting is, however, a crucial factor in states that Trump won by razor thin margins in 2016, such as PA, WI, and MI.
Now, there are variables that can impact the outcomes of increased weighted early voting numbers. Specifically, how many Ds are voting for Trump, and, moreover, voter registration outreach since 2016. I’ve been told that Rs made significant voter registration outreach gains since 2016 in states like PA and FL.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:46 am to arseinclarse
quote:
Trump by 15
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:48 am to arseinclarse
quote:yup i is one
LA registered Dems
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:03 am to LuckyTiger
I think the takeaway is that early voting numbers doubled probably due to Covid although that isn't very rational (standing in a line with others is still standing in a line with others). I don't think there are any weighting issues and expect Trump's margin of victory to increase not decrease. Dem scare tactics to drive minority votes was matched by white voter turnout. I was criticized for posting the racial breakdown when I included them before but there is no increase in spread over 2016. Minority turnout was expected to increase versus whites and that didn't happen.
Another interesting number is the mail-in votes. Those are likely to triple 2016's total. From what I'm seeing the local parish Registrar offices will have the same number of counters as 2016 so we probably won't have a final vote tally for a day or two after the election. Mail-in votes have to be individually scanned into the state system and the same number of scanners (one) are being issued to each smaller parish's ROV office.
Another interesting number is the mail-in votes. Those are likely to triple 2016's total. From what I'm seeing the local parish Registrar offices will have the same number of counters as 2016 so we probably won't have a final vote tally for a day or two after the election. Mail-in votes have to be individually scanned into the state system and the same number of scanners (one) are being issued to each smaller parish's ROV office.
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 6:04 am
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:24 am to GeauxTrain
So my dtr fit an absentee ballot but came home to vote so she’s likely included in both numbers. 
Subtract one less absentee vote!
Subtract one less absentee vote!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:25 am to GeauxTrain
I guarantee there are more Dems in those numbers voting for Trump than the other way around.
A lot of old schools Dems in that number (never went change there affiliation)
This. This leads me to believe that there won't necessarily be that many more people voting this year than in 2016
A lot of old schools Dems in that number (never went change there affiliation)
quote:
I think the takeaway is that early voting numbers doubled probably due to Covid
This. This leads me to believe that there won't necessarily be that many more people voting this year than in 2016
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 6:26 am
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