Raising Interest Rates Not The Best Way To Combat Inflation ….

that article isn't right either. too much currency in circulation but I doubt anyone wants to return it.

It's not crazy.

Normally the fed controls by raising and lowering rates.

But over last 2-3 years... many other tools - some invented on the fly - have been used.

So it makes sense that only touching interest rates is not going to fix the problem. We have to undo all the other things we did as well.

And we need to fix the supply problem. Specifically, labor supply. We need to get people back into the labor market.

Politicians created the supply chain narrative as the cause of inflation b/c they can’t point the finger at themselves for dumping trillions into the economy.

Massive fiscal stimulus plus accommodative monetary policy combined to cause demand/prices to soar.

And, both are being unwound in 2022. Fiscal cliff approaching with child tax credits going back to normal, unemployment benefits normalizing, people having to repay student debt, renters now having to pay rent or face eviction, etc.

At the same time, the fed is going to raise rates, reduce its balance sheet, etc.

Just like fiscal plus monetary compounded positively in 2020-2021, the same likely to happen negatively beginning in 2022. YOY EPS growth going to be a challenge with a huge multiple currently applied.