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re: Derrick Henry has potentially season-ending foot injury
Posted on 11/1/21 at 5:02 pm to tatervol
Posted on 11/1/21 at 5:02 pm to tatervol
Obviously, Pride is really stubborn when it comes to discussions about Henry (and Fournette) here.
And while I don't know if I would say Henry has only been "slightly above average," because of his insane workload (and cumulative value can't just be ignored), but at least on a per play/rush basis, the advanced stats indicate that he's probably been slightly above average, and there has been a steep drop off from last year.
Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
And last year he was PFF's #1 rated RB (91.7), 10th in DVOA (4th without defensive adjustment), and 5th in RYOE/ATT (1.11). The data for DVOA and RYOE/ATT, indicate he's averaging over 0.7 fewer yards per attempt (probably a larger difference once yesterday's game is included in FO's data).
Of course, he's been given an insane workload, and given last year's, we would have expected an even steeper drop-off, as player's who had last year's workload at this stage of their career usually drop off significantly. Unfortunately, an injury might be the result instead.
And while I don't know if I would say Henry has only been "slightly above average," because of his insane workload (and cumulative value can't just be ignored), but at least on a per play/rush basis, the advanced stats indicate that he's probably been slightly above average, and there has been a steep drop off from last year.
Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
And last year he was PFF's #1 rated RB (91.7), 10th in DVOA (4th without defensive adjustment), and 5th in RYOE/ATT (1.11). The data for DVOA and RYOE/ATT, indicate he's averaging over 0.7 fewer yards per attempt (probably a larger difference once yesterday's game is included in FO's data).
Of course, he's been given an insane workload, and given last year's, we would have expected an even steeper drop-off, as player's who had last year's workload at this stage of their career usually drop off significantly. Unfortunately, an injury might be the result instead.
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:15 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:You don’t know if you’d say this or not?
And while I don't know if I would say Henry has only been "slightly above average,"
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:17 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Do these stats take into consideration available yards and available yards gained?
Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:28 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:What exactly do you think this is?
Do these stats take into consideration available yards and available yards gained?
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
quote:
and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:48 pm to lsupride87
I think that’s yards per attempt against defenses based on what those defenses have done in prior games/what other RBs have done against those defenses.
I could be wrong.
I could be wrong.
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:50 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
And last year he was PFF's #1 rated RB (91.7), 10th in DVOA (4th without defensive adjustment), and 5th in RYOE/ATT (1.11). The data for DVOA and RYOE/ATT, indicate he's averaging over 0.7 fewer yards per attempt (probably a larger difference once yesterday's game is included in FO's data).
![](https://media1.giphy.com/media/DHqth0hVQoIzS/giphy.gif)
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:54 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:That would DVOA or defensive adjusted value above average
I think that’s yards per attempt against defenses based on what those defenses have done in prior games/what other RBs have done against those defenses.
I could be wrong.
Rush Yards Over Expected measures each individual carry and says “based on the blocking, situation etc this is what we think the average RB would get how much more/less did this RB get”
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:00 pm to lsupride87
Well then I have to admit, I don’t believe in the people making the assessments.
Other RBs would be housing more long runs if they were gaining more available yards.
Other RBs would be housing more long runs if they were gaining more available yards.
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