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re: Derrick Henry has potentially season-ending foot injury

Posted on 11/1/21 at 5:02 pm to
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35252 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 5:02 pm to
Obviously, Pride is really stubborn when it comes to discussions about Henry (and Fournette) here.

And while I don't know if I would say Henry has only been "slightly above average," because of his insane workload (and cumulative value can't just be ignored), but at least on a per play/rush basis, the advanced stats indicate that he's probably been slightly above average, and there has been a steep drop off from last year.

Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).

And last year he was PFF's #1 rated RB (91.7), 10th in DVOA (4th without defensive adjustment), and 5th in RYOE/ATT (1.11). The data for DVOA and RYOE/ATT, indicate he's averaging over 0.7 fewer yards per attempt (probably a larger difference once yesterday's game is included in FO's data).

Of course, he's been given an insane workload, and given last year's, we would have expected an even steeper drop-off, as player's who had last year's workload at this stage of their career usually drop off significantly. Unfortunately, an injury might be the result instead.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83850 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:15 pm to
quote:

And while I don't know if I would say Henry has only been "slightly above average,"
You don’t know if you’d say this or not?
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83850 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:17 pm to
quote:

Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
Do these stats take into consideration available yards and available yards gained?
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
96691 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

Do these stats take into consideration available yards and available yards gained?


What exactly do you think this is?

quote:

and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83850 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:48 pm to
I think that’s yards per attempt against defenses based on what those defenses have done in prior games/what other RBs have done against those defenses.

I could be wrong.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
54302 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

Specifically, he ranks 12th on PFF's RB rankings (75.6), 17th on Football Outsider's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; not including this weekend's game, 14th without defense adjustment), and 22nd on next-gen stats's Rush Yards over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT; 0.05 per attempt).

And last year he was PFF's #1 rated RB (91.7), 10th in DVOA (4th without defensive adjustment), and 5th in RYOE/ATT (1.11). The data for DVOA and RYOE/ATT, indicate he's averaging over 0.7 fewer yards per attempt (probably a larger difference once yesterday's game is included in FO's data).

Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
96691 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

I think that’s yards per attempt against defenses based on what those defenses have done in prior games/what other RBs have done against those defenses.

I could be wrong.


That would DVOA or defensive adjusted value above average

Rush Yards Over Expected measures each individual carry and says “based on the blocking, situation etc this is what we think the average RB would get how much more/less did this RB get”
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83850 posts
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:00 pm to
Well then I have to admit, I don’t believe in the people making the assessments.

Other RBs would be housing more long runs if they were gaining more available yards.
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