re: A thread for the reasonable and rational fan

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This should be true almost every season (unless LSU is playing Vanderbilt or some team is having a really bad year). The SEC is full of teams that are capable of winning on any given weekend.

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Right. But the competition in the SECw looks stronger than most years, and LSU looks weaker than most years as of right now.

Let’s put it this way - LSU opened as a 4-point favorite against MSU. Statistically, a 4-point favorite wins about 62% of the time in college football. If we were a 4-point favorite in every SEC game this year, the most likely outcome would be a 5-3 conference record, 8-4 overall record.

But we won’t be a 4-point favorite in every game. In fact, as of right now Mississippi State looks like the worst or 2nd worst SEC team on our schedule, with Kentucky. As of today the line would be worse than -4 against Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.

I agree that LSU will get better as the season goes on. But so will our opponents. 10-2 would be a hell of a turnaround. 9-3 would mean significant improvement relative to our peers. Chalk at this point is somewhere between 7-5 and 8-4.

That said, 8-4 with a bowl win is probably enough for a top 25 finish. But I doubt many people will be happy about it. 9-3 with a bowl win might be enough for a top 10 finish, similar to 2018.