re: PREVIEW: LSU vs Michigan Monday 3/22 6:10pm CBS

Prediction:

We've heard for years and years: GUARDS WIN THE IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. So I ask myself...who has better guards? Can 5'11 Mike Thomas guard 6'4 Javonte? Can 6'1 Eli Brooks guard Cam Thomas? Will they be forced to play Chaundee Brown and lose some offensive ability so he can be more length? Other side of the ball, will our length effect them?

I think the Big Ten and their style of play helps them in their league and hurts them in this tournament. SEC refs get trigger happy and call tons of fouls. On the flip side, Big Ten are able to mug each other. You can see that in the FTA per game for their teams. So then when the Tourney comes, they play too physical and here we are. In Michigan's first round matchup vs Texas Southern, TSU drew 9 fouls between Michigan's two Centers Dickinson and Davis. Tx Southern was able to attempt 26 FT's. I have to think if Tx Southern is able to do that, then if the officiating is nearly the same LSU should be able to get in the 20's if not to 30. If LSU gets that, not many teams can compete.

Against St Bonny, SBU missed some shots early and could never get it going. Michigan will have opportunities early. If they come out hot, they have the players to stay hot and keep insane pressure on us. I expect us to use some light double team pressure on Dickinson and force him to make good passes which lead to 3's.

Jimbeam made a great post earlier about why LSU has good point defense. Michigan does NOT want to shoot 25-30 3's. They want to be in the teens and grind it out inside. They have capable shooters, but they don't want to play that game. JB Post

Overall, I think Michigan is in trouble. Isaiah Livers is a dude. Dickinson gets the hype, but Livers is their best player. He started as a FR and has had so many big games. By far their best shooter, 6'7 230 can defend a PF like Days and force someone to guard him and gives them 4 capable shooters. Without Livers, the defensive rotation gets A LOT easier for LSU. On the opposite end, I don't know what Michigan is going to do.

I want to get this out of the way: LSU plays isolation ball. In the NCAA Tournament, that's what wins. Guards who take dudes off the dribble and make plays. That's an undeniable fact. You can't just run guys off screens and do these rigid plays, that's why some of these teams lose. Instead of just letting your best players go make plays they rely on specific things.

With that said, what is Michigan going to do with Dickinson on defense? He's going to guard Days? Ok, cool...so now your 7'1 player is on the perimeter and LSU will feast at offensive rebounding. He is going to guard Watford? Ok, cool...you can sag off of him, but Watford will be able to take him off the dribble and I can see foul trouble pile up on him. People look at "what will LSU do on defense", but sometimes (especially for LSU) best defense is a good offense. I am looking for LSU to attack and attack early. If you get Dickinson into foul trouble they become an average team. They earned their #1 seed, but without Livers they just aren't the same. Think about this, where would LSU be without Watford? If LSU can get Dickinson into foul trouble, they are going to be essentially missing their best two players. ETA: I’ve seen a couple guys talking about Josh Gray. Apparently Josh Gray is going to cover Dickinson some. Luckily Dickinson only averages 25 or so minutes, so if Gray can give us 10 decent defensive minutes, it would just be enormous for us.

I expect LSU to play at their pace and for Michigan to do it, as well. LSU will come out with the same energy they have the last 4 games and I think overall LSU has the better team.

LSU 81
Mich 73