Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded

I'm still on the fence about Ingram. I know that most on here love him. But I just don't believe he is a star and is pretty much hit his peak. A poor man's Paul George that isn't a winner or a closer. There is just something missing in his game..

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I'm still on the fence about Ingram. I know that most on here love him. But I just don't believe he is a star and is pretty much hit his peak. A poor man's Paul George that isn't a winner or a closer. There is just something missing in his game..

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I know what you mean. It's like everything he does is slightly in slow motion

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But I just don't believe he is a star and is pretty much hit his peak

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That’s because you cling to a poor application of generalized statistical analysis


and tried to argue with a straight face that Ingram’s at his peak(a guy that just turned 23) and halfway through his career(I can not emphasize this enough, you are saying this about a guy that just turned 23), that we have an old team(5th youngest team), and that players of Ingram’s caliber don’t make it to 30 in this league(players that make at least one all star play into their thirty’s on average, or at least 12 seasons).

You have a warped and incorrect understanding of player growth curves and longevity and have seemingly, based on this post, refused to correct that ignorance.

It’s also just absurd to say a player is tapped out when literally he took a condensed offseason and added a efficient off-dribble and pull up three(one of the most deadly skills you can have as an offensive player), leaped up his facilitation skills, and has become a solid to good defender after being a below average one..And he’s still 3 years from the start of his likely peak.

I didn't say he was tapped out. I said that he is entering his prime at 23-25. I said that he would most likely be out of the league by 30. You posted an article that tried to list a player's prime as around 27, when the average age is less than 25. It was interesting and I conceded I was wrong about our team's age. Not sure how much more of a mea culpa I needed to do..

Why not take it even smaller? Take all the players with his rare condition and forecast out the remainder of his career.

You are cherry picking factors, shrinking the pool from a 1000 to less than 50 to back a fantastical theory. You are asserting that he will not hit his peak until a vast majority players careers are over.

I could buy the idea that his peak could be extended. But you can't extrapolate his current numbers to incrementally increasing every year for the next 4 and then a 3-4 year peak and a steady decline. That is incredibly rare and would make him a top 5 player all time.

Everybody is comparing him to Durant. At 23, Durant had OKC in the Finals and was averaging 30 ppg. People knew who Durant is. He was a massive star. Only NBA diehards know Ingram. He has a huge way to go to reach that level..

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You are cherry picking factors, shrinking the pool from a 1000 to less than 50 to back a fantastical theory. You are asserting that he will not hit his peak until a vast majority players careers are over.

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What fantastical theory is that? Parsing down the raw data into relevant data before we apply calculations and analysis? In this case the simple criteria being players that make an all star game and/or receive a large second contract. I.E. the type of player Ingram is.

Cherry picking is what you do to force the statistics to say what you want them to, like taking a set of data and pulling out one or two data points that confirm the bias you want. Contextualizing is eliminating non relevant data that doesn’t fit your criteria and calculating and analyzing based on the results, whatever they may be.


Please explain to me why we would be more wise to apply analytical results derived from raw statistics than a model more closely aligned with the player we have?

Explain to me why an average derived from a set of data that doesn’t parse out the busts and journeyman of the league is what we should rely upon to make projections about the career longevity and peak of an all star player as opposed to averages derived from data that eliminates that non-relevant data and fits the relevant criteria?

This is data analysis 101. You remove non-relevant data before applying formulas and making calculations. Otherwise you end up with lurking variables that skew your results and lead you to draw incorrect conclusions. Which is exactly what you have done here.

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The Pelicans literally have the role players/bench losing the games for them. That is why the team can’t compete. Those players are asked to not make stupid turnovers and make open shots.

Pelicans 3 PT Shooting

Redick 18-61 29.5%
Ball 20-65 30.8%
Hart 14-44 31.8%
Melli 3-16 18.8%

Total 55-186 29.6%

Last Season 3 PT Shooting

Redick 180-397 45.3%
Ball 148-395 37.5%
Hart 121-354 34.2%
Melli 69-206 33.5%

Total 518- 1352 38.3%

The only players pulling their weight right now are BI, Zion, Adams, and NAW.

What you have done is take a small group of players, which skews the averages to a great length. You are putting Ingram into the exclusive company of HOFers at 23 years old. You say he isn't in his prime yet. You are projecting a 15 year career for him. That is very rare. There are less than 30 players in the league now that will play 15-20 years.

By tying him in with guys like James, Paul, Anthony, Wade, Harden.. They skew the numbers to a dramatic effect. Those are impacted much more in a smaller sample group, right? James alone would blow any averages away. He is a legendary ironman. You can't include him, but throw out the bottom 900. That's why I don't trust your numbers. He doesn't belong in that elite of a club.

You totally disregarded everything I said and explained, then double downed on your original point.

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What you have said is only backed up if you refuse to properly contextualize data in even the most basic of ways to get a comparable data set(or just make shite up altogether like claiming a players peak is at 23-25).

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The context you are using is a select group of the greatest players. Guys with huge, long guaranteed contracts that have many reasons for playing longer. Superstars with many, many years of high production. All of those skew the numbers in a way that is much more dramatic than taking the raw collective.

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If Ingram is at his peak he would be a major statistical outlier, if he is halfway through his career it would mean he is trending way, way below the average career of all star level players in the last 40 or so years.

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I would never hope this. But Ingram is one injury away from never playing again. Or being severely limited for a major portion. I barely even looked at a 10 year span of "all stars" and found many examples.

Gilbert Arenas- peak of 25, out of the league by 30
Yao Ming- peak at 26, out of the league at 30
Josh Howard- peak at 26, out of the league at 32
Mehmut Okur- peak at 27, out of the league at 32
Brandon Roy- peak at 24, out of the league at 28
Danny Granger- peak at 25, out of the league at 32
David Lee- peak at 26, out of the league at 33 (sucked after 30).
Andrew Bynum- peak at 24, out of the league at 26
Roy Hibbert- peak at 25, out of the league at 30
Deron Williams- peak 25-27, out of the league at 32

Even look at a bunch of guys currently playing..

Derrick Rose- peak at 22
Kevin Love- peak at 23-25
Demarcus Cousins- peak 24-27
Brook Lopez- peak at 24
John Wall- peak at 25

I am sure you will point to injuries. But that is the point. 23-25 is when most peak and start making their All-stars. That peak may get dragged out or they are just living on reputation.

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You are just wrong here, full stop

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I just think we disagree. The body is different for everyone, so there are no exact age. But I know the defaults. I believe you are engineering an answer that fit your narrative. I'm sure I do the same thing to a certain extent. I will offer an olive branch though and agree that for a Superstar, they have a long peak that can extend throughs the later part of their 20's and sometimes into the 30's.