re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.

I would actually love to find a rolling formula that identifies player in game scoring variance during a season.

As for contract, people concern themselves because he’s the biggest trade deadline decision we have and many of us have seen what handing out pay-based-on-the-hope—they-eventually-reach-their-potential contracts for Eric Gordon/Omer Asik/Solomon Hill can do to a small market franchise.

If Lonzo gets a 25 million dollar offer and we match, then goes on to subsequently largely plateau out as a high variance 3 and D guard with continued limited offensive scoring and facilitation, you now have roughly a quarter of your cap tied up in a negative asset that isn’t good enough to be your third option on a championship team.

quote:

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We expect Ball to shoot well from 3, score consistently, finish efficiently at the rim, get to the line in bunches and hit free throws, and create for others. Give effort on D. Just realize that’s a $35 mil a year player

This newfound role that has been discovered in February seeks to be working well. He’s adapted and improved, just like every season of his young career.

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for Feb he's averaging

16.7ppg
4.8 rpg
5.2 apg
1.9 TOg
1.3 spg
FG% 45.9
3PT 47.4%
FT% 82.6%

with good defense

at 23, that's more than $20M/year