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re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:56 am to LuckyTiger
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:56 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
I think he gave Trump an 8% chance against Hillary.
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016. He was wrong, but far more bullish on Trump than the other models.
3
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:57 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016
Underlined the key part. Now go back to the rest of his models for that election.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:59 am to ValDawgsta
29%
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016. He was wrong,
We have no idea if he was wrong or not, because elections are discrete events. You need iterations to prove models like this and elections don't provide that; not for a long, long time.
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