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Posted on 10/18/20 at 4:00 pm to oldskule
Even if you're a Biden supporter, do you seriously believe he's going to win?
Good God, he's a worse candidate than Hillary was.
Good God, he's a worse candidate than Hillary was.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 4:05 pm to oldskule
Polls have 2 main problems, man made bias both intentional and unintentional, and technical inaccurate sampling errors.
First man made bias. Fake News wants to suppress conservatives and invigorate liberals, because they are liberal and think this is a positive service for mankind.
A) Intentional
1. They will use loaded questions to do this, the technical term is ”push polls”. They are not actually polling but propagandizing to push the electorate in the direction they want.
2. They will purposely rig the sample to over question those whose opinions they agree with. First they will survey “adults” this includes illegals, not registered voters, and not likely voters. These groups are statistically Democrat.
3. They will oversample Democrats and under sample GOP to skew results.
B) Unintentional
1. Polling is a science and an art. Artistically one must decide the enthusiasm and probable turn out. This has always been to the advantage of Democrats since the polling error of 1948 when the Chicago Tribune predicted Dewey defeating Truman.
2. They accidentally ask push poll questions that seem normal to them because they of their liberal bias.
Now, inaccurate sampling errors.
1. Similar to number 3 above. They base the scientific sampling levels of party turnout at past election levels but no two elections are ever 100% alike.
2. Silent and misleading voters make accurate sampling difficult. Fear of retribution used to be a liberal problem (think KKK or Nazis on you lawn), but now afraid and silent voters are way more conservative (think antifa and BLM on your lawn). Plus misleading voters formally were playful people who wanted to screw with polling companies and media empires, more left, but now more right.
3. Technology. Land phone lines were universal in America, black-white, rich-poor, young-old, or married-divorced-single. Area codes WERE are specific, people were home at predictable times, and would always answer the phone to see who and why someone was calling.
Hopefully Trump wins, but polls more than a week out are pure garbage. Those a day before aren’t much better, and scatter mail ballots to random addresses and scattered thrown away ballots by unionized postal workers makes it even worse this year.
First man made bias. Fake News wants to suppress conservatives and invigorate liberals, because they are liberal and think this is a positive service for mankind.
A) Intentional
1. They will use loaded questions to do this, the technical term is ”push polls”. They are not actually polling but propagandizing to push the electorate in the direction they want.
2. They will purposely rig the sample to over question those whose opinions they agree with. First they will survey “adults” this includes illegals, not registered voters, and not likely voters. These groups are statistically Democrat.
3. They will oversample Democrats and under sample GOP to skew results.
B) Unintentional
1. Polling is a science and an art. Artistically one must decide the enthusiasm and probable turn out. This has always been to the advantage of Democrats since the polling error of 1948 when the Chicago Tribune predicted Dewey defeating Truman.
2. They accidentally ask push poll questions that seem normal to them because they of their liberal bias.
Now, inaccurate sampling errors.
1. Similar to number 3 above. They base the scientific sampling levels of party turnout at past election levels but no two elections are ever 100% alike.
2. Silent and misleading voters make accurate sampling difficult. Fear of retribution used to be a liberal problem (think KKK or Nazis on you lawn), but now afraid and silent voters are way more conservative (think antifa and BLM on your lawn). Plus misleading voters formally were playful people who wanted to screw with polling companies and media empires, more left, but now more right.
3. Technology. Land phone lines were universal in America, black-white, rich-poor, young-old, or married-divorced-single. Area codes WERE are specific, people were home at predictable times, and would always answer the phone to see who and why someone was calling.
Hopefully Trump wins, but polls more than a week out are pure garbage. Those a day before aren’t much better, and scatter mail ballots to random addresses and scattered thrown away ballots by unionized postal workers makes it even worse this year.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 4:08 pm to Sev09
quote:
Once is an outlier/mistake. Twice is a trend.
It's more than twice. Obama, considering his opponents, was a lock. Looking back at Kerry v Bush, and Gore v Bush, there were significant polling errors in both elections. I distinctly remember Wolf Blitzer claiming a Kerry victory at 5PM citing polling and exit interviews. Ooops. The Media is still chasing unicorns.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 4:19 pm to L.A.
quote:
quote:
The New York Times
Presidential Forecast
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win ?
If I recall the odds so favored Hilldawg she actually sent a birthday wish to herself congratulating the first woman to be elected POTUS....lol.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 4:23 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Most people just don't understand probabilities.
You must be related to AggieHank.
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