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re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Posted on 10/14/20 at 6:52 pm to Ignignot
Posted on 10/14/20 at 6:52 pm to Ignignot
1. A broad area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and
Thursday morning, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea late Thursday into Friday, and Hispaniola Friday
night into Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over
the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow
development will be possible thereafter into early next week
while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing
about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
This post was edited on 10/14/20 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 10/14/20 at 6:55 pm to lsuman25
The one down by Central America is the one that has the best chance to spin up, but the models have become more and more bearish on it the last couple days.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 7:08 pm to lsuman25
Phillip Klotzbach and CSU are still calling for an above average end of October. I think at this point they deserve attention. They have been pretty much dead on with every outlook they have given this season.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 8:41 pm to lsuman25
It will be interesting to see what the NHC does here with 93L and the new area in the SW Caribbean. Technically, the 93L wave packet will merge with the new yellow area but the vort max might be far enough north that NHC designates a new invest for the SW Caribbean area.
Ultimately, there is a high chance that something will form in the WCAB in the next 6 - 10 days. Where does it go? Climo favors a track off to the NE as cool fronts start to get more frequent and dig deeper into the SE.
The 18z GEFS has a few clustered track potentials - Westward into the Yucatan or maybe the Gulf (the Canadian model has been showing this), northward into Florida, or off to the NE.
Ultimately, there is a high chance that something will form in the WCAB in the next 6 - 10 days. Where does it go? Climo favors a track off to the NE as cool fronts start to get more frequent and dig deeper into the SE.
The 18z GEFS has a few clustered track potentials - Westward into the Yucatan or maybe the Gulf (the Canadian model has been showing this), northward into Florida, or off to the NE.
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