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re: What's the end game for hurricane tracking/projections?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:39 pm to Whiznot
Posted on 10/7/20 at 12:39 pm to Whiznot
Predicting Mother nature with absolute precision will never happen. For example, look at the path of hurricane Andrew or some of the others that made many course changes.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:10 pm to Purplehaze
I'm pretty amazed at how accurate they are now. I suspect there will be incremental improvements, but being able to nail it? Nah.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:13 pm to TomSpanks
tracking is way better than it was, even 10 years ago. Lemme guess: you get mad when they say we're going to get a storm, and then we don't.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:16 pm to TomSpanks
quote:
What's the end game for hurricane tracking/projections?
To get as many people to watch or listen to your news outlet as you possibly can.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:20 pm to TomSpanks
There is too much money in it for the WEATHER CHANNEL....
They make it so dramatic and juicy! This is it how it will be for the foreseeable future.
They make it so dramatic and juicy! This is it how it will be for the foreseeable future.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 2:11 pm to lsuwontonwrap
quote:
Lemme guess: you get mad when they say we're going to get a storm, and then we don't.
Absolutely not, and I'm not someone that thinks TWC is holding out on us to boost ratings, nor am I someone who thinks we haven't made improvements along the way. I'm genuinely curious if we'll ever see a time where we have the ability to accurately predict these things. We always see storm chasers and hurricane planes and other science bitches do science things and drop probes and try and collect as much data as possible, which has me wondering why if we can never truly have enough data to more accurately predict these things. That's why the original question was "What's the end game".
Posted on 10/7/20 at 2:16 pm to TomSpanks
I guess in my mind, I can't see a way to process or input enough data to nail the track and intensity of a hurricane much better than we do now. Can we get a little better, sure, but I'm curious if we'll ever really be able to nail long term projections.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 2:26 pm to TomSpanks
Like many scientific endeavors, weather projection doesn't improve on a linear scale. There are large leaps forward followed by stagnation in improving the accuracy of projection. When the next leap forward will happen is unknown.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 4:55 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
More importantly, what the frick did we think we were accomplishing?
12 hours advance warning in a cone 100 miles wide.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 3:24 pm to TomSpanks
Not enough observational data.
Not enough/computing power
equations of motion are not exact.
too many unknown variables.
Not enough/computing power
equations of motion are not exact.
too many unknown variables.
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