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re: Analysis of Polls vs. Actual Results

Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:45 am to
Posted by ksayetiger
Centenary Gents
Member since Jul 2007
68522 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:45 am to
according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 am to
quote:

according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected



Yep, I would go with the word of someone that far off last time.
Posted by RICHIE APRILE
Essex County, NJ
Member since Aug 2020
791 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 am to
quote:

according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected



No they haven't. The People's Pundit guy said that the polls are actively trying to factor in mail in voting so their likely voter screens, if they are using them at all, are way too generous. Some polls are still using registered voters because they think mail in voting will mean there is no point in using likely voter screens since every registered voter will be able to vote.

I got polled yesterday for the first time. From Public Policy Polling, a known democrat affiliated pollster. They asked me who I planned on voting for in the first question, then asked me a bunch of leading questions that had to do with the supreme court (i.e "If you knew that your choice for President would appoint a supreme court justice who would take away a woman's right to choose, would it make you more likely or less likely to vote for them?") and then the final question was asking me again who I planned on voting for.

I bet they used the results of the 2nd time they asked the question for their topline after asking a bunch of leading questions.
Posted by JasonMason
Memphis
Member since Jun 2009
4678 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:52 am to
quote:

according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected


How do you correct for people not answering your calls or lying to you? The same environment, probably more extreme, exists today.
Posted by TigerCoon
Member since Nov 2005
19017 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:53 am to
How does this post not have multiple upvotes? Too subtle.
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 10:54 am
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
34447 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:07 am to
quote:

according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected

Nothing has changed in 20 years. They all use the same flawed mathematical modeling.
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