re: Proof that the polls are not accurate

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I kind of wonder what the Trump team sees in Nevada to invest time and money there.

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Here are my thoughts:

1. It's typically a bellwether.
By voting for Hillary in 2016, it broke a 9-election streak of voting for the presidential winner every time (1980-2012).

2. Trump seems to be improving with Latino voters
Even outlets like CNN are stating this so its obviously true. If Trump makes up just a few points with Latino voters compared to 2016, then Nevada is very much in play.

3. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country (13.2%)
Nevada has high unemployment because it likely has the highest ratio of service workers of any state in the union. With few people travelling for vacations right now, and with zero major conventions going on in Vegas, that means there are a lot of people looking for work.

While that typically dooms an incumbent, Trump appears to be the candidate most aggressively wanting to open back up the economy while Biden is talking about how we need to shut things down. That bodes well for Trump

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But it's just not that many electoral votes. I'd much rather see him all over the Midwest. Way more EVs there.

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Based on the reasons above, I think Nevada might swing further towards Trump this cycle than most other states.

A somewhat likely scenario is unfortunately a 269-269 tie. That would involve everything happening the same as 2016 except for Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin going back over to the DEMs. Trump likely still wins the presidency if this happens, but it would be so divisive he knows it would doom his second term.

There's also real concern he could lose NE-2 or ME-2 which either of of those joining those 3 states above in the Biden column would be enough to lose the election.

I think the Trump campaign sees Nevada similar to Wisconsin and Michigan in that all were decided by thin margins and based on the situation this year, Nevada might be a more likely pick-up that those other two are likely to be holds.