re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding

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The recon update shows the gradient is still quite wide. The strongest winds are still a decent way from the center.

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Yup. All part of the process and why the first good convective burst typically only yields modest strengthening initially.

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That's possibly the curved band you were discussing earlier that will eventually try to form an eyewall.

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First sign perhaps of that future. I figure by the time I wake up tomorrow there will be some signs that band is forming up and starting to wrap in.

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I figure by the time I wake up tomorrow there will be some signs that band is forming up and starting to wrap in.

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Speaking of what things will look like when you wake up, the GFS just shifted...












west.

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Speaking of what things will look like when you wake up, the GFS just shifted...












west.

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*Curses in English*

To be fair, it ain't by much and it's starting too weak.

Dangit ... I was hoping it would keep shifting east.

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To be fair, it ain't by much and it's starting too weak.

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Yeah, but it's just comical to watch a trend east come to a screeching halt on one run. Biggest change appears to be a slightly faster storm gets it slightly further west. Something we've already known, but in this case is probably for the reason you pointed out - initialized a little weak.

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Dangit ... I was hoping it would keep shifting east.

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It's so similar it's hard to call it much of a shift.

Small ridge stays a little stronger over the top but might be a function of a weaker Sally vs 18z. Since the HMON and HWRF have the GFS output for the big features, this implies a slight west output for those two when they run but it really shouldn't change very much based on what I'm seeing with the GFS this run.

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Yeah, but it's just comical to watch a trend east come to a screeching halt on one run. 

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Bruh, I sometimes wish people didn't have this level of access to all the models. There's a lot of hanging on little shifts.

Of course I've learned a lot from having open access and comparing to what the real world produces...

You gotta give credit where it's due to the NHC hurricane specialists. They probably feel like saying to hell with Rene and the other areas way out in the Atlantic and just concentrate on Sally and Paulette.

But they keep analyzing and writing advisories every 3 or 6 hours for all of these areas.

Name

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There’s a reason...

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Spot on. Even though we’ve extraordinary tools in this day and age, this forecasting business is still inexact.

Here comes a geezer story: Back when there were no satellites with cameras and before anything other than land based radar that picked up pelicans and turned them into B52s, one plotted the approach of hurricanes on a grid map of latitude and longitude. Bouys, ships at sea, and hurricane hunters provided coordinates and people (children and adults) listened on the radio (what’s that?), heard the coordinates, marked them down on their official WTVJ Miami Hurricane Map Sponsored by Sears and Roebuck and connected the Xs. It sort of gave you a general track of a storm. Usually, it had to be an Atlantic storm because fast forming Gulf and northern Caribbean storms weren’t caught in time to even plot. Everybody was a meteorologist, until the hurricane actually hit...250 miles from where you thought it was going.