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Message
New Trafalgar Group Poll: Trump leads in Arizona
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm
Again, this is the polling group that basically nailed the election results in 2016.
LINK
Trump: 46.2%
Biden: 44.8%
Jorgensen: 3.2%
Other Party: 1.4%
Undecided: 4.4%
Biden's percentage is pretty much in line with how the Dems have performed in Arizona for the last 5 election cycles...
Gore (2000): 44.67%
Kerry (2004): 44.32%
Obama (2008): 44.91%
Obama (2012): 44.45%
Clinton (2016): 44.58%
I would assume most of those "undecideds" would lean towards Trump over Sleepy Joe. I would guess Trump will win Arizona by 4-5 points.
LINK
Trump: 46.2%
Biden: 44.8%
Jorgensen: 3.2%
Other Party: 1.4%
Undecided: 4.4%
Biden's percentage is pretty much in line with how the Dems have performed in Arizona for the last 5 election cycles...
Gore (2000): 44.67%
Kerry (2004): 44.32%
Obama (2008): 44.91%
Obama (2012): 44.45%
Clinton (2016): 44.58%
I would assume most of those "undecideds" would lean towards Trump over Sleepy Joe. I would guess Trump will win Arizona by 4-5 points.
6
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:27 pm to Eat Your Crow
I mean seriously besides anyone who is insane have you met one single person that wants to vote Biden?
Besides RLSU (lulz)
Besides RLSU (lulz)
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:28 pm to Eat Your Crow
I love how trafalagar polls.
instead of asking all the respondents who THEY are voting for, they ask poll respondents who they think THEIR NEIGHBOR is voting for.
it attempts to solve the issue of shy trump voters not telling pollsters their intentions.
instead of asking all the respondents who THEY are voting for, they ask poll respondents who they think THEIR NEIGHBOR is voting for.
it attempts to solve the issue of shy trump voters not telling pollsters their intentions.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:28 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
Gore (2000): 44.67%
Kerry (2004): 44.32%
Obama (2008): 44.91%
Obama (2012): 44.45%
Clinton (2016): 44.58%
That's it. That is your Democratic Party vote in Arizona.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:30 pm to GumboPot
quote:
That's it. That is your Democratic Party vote in Arizona.
Yeah, I keep on coming back to those numbers from past elections in Arizona. It's shockingly consistent.
I know everyone always references the influx of Californians moving to Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and a bunch of other states, but it's frankly going to take a LOT of people voting democrat that haven't ever before for Biden to realistically win that state in 2020.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:41 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
Yeah, I keep on coming back to those numbers from past elections in Arizona. It's shockingly consistent.
That's like the dumb shite polls with Biden leading in Florida by 9 or 10... Florida hasn't been won by more than 3%, I think it is, by either party in any election since 2000. But now all of a sudden Biden is going to win by 8 or 9 there? Give me a break.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:42 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
I mean seriously besides anyone who is insane have you met one single person that wants to vote Biden?
I have not met one, maybe I travel in more intelligent circles or have been in quarantine too long?
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:50 pm to Eat Your Crow
This poll had 54% female voters and Trump still leads. Good sign.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:51 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
Yeah, I keep on coming back to those numbers from past elections in Arizona. It's shockingly consistent.
The real story here is if Trump drive turnout, McSally has a legit shot at beating China-Boy Kelly.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:52 pm to lsursb
How many non- binary for the Texas A&M folk?
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:56 pm to David_DJS
quote:
The real story here is if Trump drive turnout, McSally has a legit shot at beating China-Boy Kelly.
Trump vs Never Trump will be driving every contest this election.
I think we may see a Rep win the Traficant Seat (NEOhio) in the house. Poor Tim Ryan. The last time the seat flipped was 1984.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:03 pm to lsursb
quote:
This poll had 54% female voters and Trump still leads. Good sign.
Yep.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:34 pm to Eat Your Crow
That poll in Florida got me nervous.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:38 pm to tketaco
quote:
That poll in Florida got me nervous.
The 3% undecided they already said will go to DJT
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:56 pm to SDVTiger
Out here in suburban TX a couple of years ago, I saw easily 100x more Beto yard signs in the months before the election than I see Biden signs now (two so far). And we know how well that worked out for Beto...
Plenty of people with Trump signs and even flags in my neighborhood. Plus, you drive 10 minutes outside of the city and every other property has a huge Trump flag.
Very poor enthusiasm for Biden out here. Hard time seeing TX turn blue based on what I’ve seen. Of course, I’m not in the Austin area. No telling what’s going on in that disaster zone.
Plenty of people with Trump signs and even flags in my neighborhood. Plus, you drive 10 minutes outside of the city and every other property has a huge Trump flag.
Very poor enthusiasm for Biden out here. Hard time seeing TX turn blue based on what I’ve seen. Of course, I’m not in the Austin area. No telling what’s going on in that disaster zone.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 11:27 pm to Eat Your Crow
Mail in voting. Trump loses
Posted on 8/11/20 at 12:50 am to ChexMix
Arizona has a republican governor and a republican attorney general.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 5:23 am to ChexMix
quote:
Mail in voting. Trump loses
Chex- for possibly having one of the best avis on the board, you can have the most negative outlooks sometimes.
Cheer up, baw. We got this.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 5:33 am to SDVTiger
quote:
I mean seriously besides anyone who is insane have you met one single person that wants to vote Biden?
No, but I know a lot of people who want to vote “not Trump” and that should scare us all.
This post was edited on 8/11/20 at 5:34 am
Posted on 8/11/20 at 6:03 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
it attempts to solve the issue of shy trump voters not telling pollsters their intentions.
But just as inaccurate
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