re: Let's talk EBR Mayor Race

It’s all about who makes the runoff.
See, the primary is really screwy because it’s at the same time as the presidential election and thus usually has a MUCH higher turnout than the runoff. Thus, who makes the runoff is determined by name recognition, Presidential enthusiasm, and how many names are splitting the votes. The more people there are on the ballot, the more enthusiasm becomes important and the less important it becomes to have a broad coalition because a lower threshold of the vote will get you second place and a spot in the runoff (there is no vote if someone gets 51% in the primary, but that is very unlikely unless Watson is the only white candidate and Trump pulls in crazy amounts of votes while dems stay home).

So, a crowded primary field helps a polarizing candidate with a small coalition but very vocal and dedicated followers like Marcelle. A field with just 3 prominent candidates favors someone with a broad coalition who appeals to a lot of different kinds of voters with less strong feelings who are showing up to vote mostly due to the presidential election.

The general is determined entirely by turnout and coalitions as turnout is typically WAAAAAAAY lower unless there’s a competitive senate race on the ballot. In the last go-round, the field was crowded in the primary. Trump brought big turnout, but Bodi was a polarizing candidate that alienated many in the city. Many whites were told Broome was a continuity candidate who would follow in Kip’s footsteps, so they went with her. Gissel had no name recognition outside Spanish Town, Delgado had name recognition for all the wrong reasons, and Marcelle had the radical black vote. Broome’s coalition of moderate blacks and business folks got her into the runoff with Bodi. Broome then managed to absorb and consolidate the Marcelle radicals and the liberal gentrification whites from Gissel to have a wider coalition in the general and beat Bodi who no longer had the support of a ton of white Trump voters.

Watson: poor name recognition, but currently the only white candidate on the ballot as well as the only republican. Due to not being a moron like Bodi, he could get the business class to break for him in the runoff if matched against Broome or Marcelle.

Broome: incumbent who came in as a business-friendly moderate, but ended up disappointing everyone. She likely loses the bulk of her black support to Marcelle, the bulk of her moderate white support to Watson, and the woke liberal support to Wicker. She’s kinda stuck like Delgado was last go around.

Wicker: decent name recognition, moderate black woman rep, she will likely try to pitch herself as being the candidate Broome pretended to be last time.

Marcelle: radical racist communist activist. She has great name recognition and a strong organization, but limited capacity to build coalitions outside of that due to her hardline views and just being a really hard person to get along with in general. She could be a big time spoiler in the primary, but lacks the coalition building skills to survive a general. She would be the worst thing to ever happen to any city in Louisiana if elected, she’s make Latoya look like Rudy Giuliani.

This go-around, I think this race comes down to two factors:
1. Will another white Republican/independent splitter enter the race to leach votes from Watson?
2. Will the liberal and moderate whites and moderate white collar black democrats turn out to vote for Joe Biden?

If there’s no white splitter and Trump enjoys a significant enthusiasm and turnout gap over Joe, Watson wins in the primary.

If there’s a white splitter with Trump advantage, then we likely have Wicker v. Watson in the runoff which Wicker likely wins.

If there’s a white splitter with big black turnout for Biden, we probably have two black candidates in the runoff. The winner will be the one that can get the most white votes.

No splitter with large black turnout for Biden matches Watson likely against Marcelle, which Watson should win handedly in the runoff.

In my opinion, Wicker wins if she’s in a runoff, Marcelle cannot win a runoff, and Watson has a great shot to win unless matched against Wicker, then it’s a coin flip.