re: Where did the 60K death estimate come from?

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The IMHE model that started at 2.2 million, then 200K, then 80K, then 60K.

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The IMHE model’s original prediction was 84,000, it rose to 94,000, then it’s gone through a series of adjustments down to about 60,000 and back up to about 67,000.

It has never predicted more than 94,000 deaths and it looks like that will be an under prediction in the end.

It’s a poorly performing model, but not because of the wrong figures you listed.