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Started By
Message
Marginal effectiveness of cancellations vs. no fans (long)
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:39 pm
In basic economics, you learn about marginal utility and diminishing returns: as you spend more and more resources you get less and less benefit.
Think of the differences in price and quality between a bottle of Old Crow, Buffalo Trace, and Blantons. That first upgrade gets you a lot more “bang for your buck” than the next.
That’s what the powers that be are failing to understand regarding sports. Removing the fans provided a vast benefit in reducing spread and flattening the curve. A moderate price for a huge gain.
However, outright cancellations are representative of diminishing returns for increasing costs. To athletes, coaches, families, and fans. You already removed 90+% of the occupants of each event. You’re not going to flatten the curve that much more by removing the last ~10%. But it sure costs a lot more.
If economics majors were calling the shots we’d have sports. No fans. But sports.
Think of the differences in price and quality between a bottle of Old Crow, Buffalo Trace, and Blantons. That first upgrade gets you a lot more “bang for your buck” than the next.
That’s what the powers that be are failing to understand regarding sports. Removing the fans provided a vast benefit in reducing spread and flattening the curve. A moderate price for a huge gain.
However, outright cancellations are representative of diminishing returns for increasing costs. To athletes, coaches, families, and fans. You already removed 90+% of the occupants of each event. You’re not going to flatten the curve that much more by removing the last ~10%. But it sure costs a lot more.
If economics majors were calling the shots we’d have sports. No fans. But sports.
8
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:58 pm to ForeverEllisHugh
there's probably an economic argument that exists that we should just be letting the virus run its course with no sanctions whatsoever
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:03 am to ForeverEllisHugh
quote:
That’s what the powers that be are failing to understand
Lol
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:04 am to ForeverEllisHugh
I fricking love Buffalo Trace, great reference. shite is hard to find up here.
I also agree with your premise.
I also agree with your premise.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:15 am to Bags of Milk
quote:
fricking love Buffalo Trace, great reference
Thanks. There are plenty more for those not into bourbon:
Toyota -> BMW/Mercedes -> Bentley
Golden Corral -> Outback -> Ruth’s Chris
Nathan Peterman -> Matt Ryan -> Drew Brees
Kellen Mond -> Jake Fromm -> Joe Burrow
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:16 am to ForeverEllisHugh
I don't entirely disagree with you from a purely epidemiological/cost-benefit perspective, but there are a lot of externalities not being factored in there.
What we've seen in recent weeks is a major anchoring effect, wherein organizations (companies, sports leagues, governmental organizations, etc.) that move first often set the policy for everyone else. And there is a huge PR hit if a league doesn't comply with industry standard (see: EPL, PGA). And that could be/will be a lot of money lost because of lost customers. I think the actual biological risk of having EPL teams or PGA players play in empty venues is damn near zero, but the reputation risk of those leagues running while everyone else is completely shut down is quite high.
We human beings tend to be irrational creatures at times, and a perceived pandemic will certainly trigger our deepest fears. And that has/will have significant economic impact. Security is our absolute basest instinct above all else. It might be an illusion, but when that illusion cracks, then hunkering down is the de factor reversion for everyone.
What we've seen in recent weeks is a major anchoring effect, wherein organizations (companies, sports leagues, governmental organizations, etc.) that move first often set the policy for everyone else. And there is a huge PR hit if a league doesn't comply with industry standard (see: EPL, PGA). And that could be/will be a lot of money lost because of lost customers. I think the actual biological risk of having EPL teams or PGA players play in empty venues is damn near zero, but the reputation risk of those leagues running while everyone else is completely shut down is quite high.
We human beings tend to be irrational creatures at times, and a perceived pandemic will certainly trigger our deepest fears. And that has/will have significant economic impact. Security is our absolute basest instinct above all else. It might be an illusion, but when that illusion cracks, then hunkering down is the de factor reversion for everyone.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 12:18 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:17 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
What we've seen in recent weeks is a major anchoring effect, wherein organizations (companies, sports leagues, governmental organizations, etc.) that move first often set the policy for everyone else. And there is a huge PR hit if a league doesn't comply with industry standard (see: EPL, PGA). And that could be/will be a lot of money lost because of lost customers. I think the actual biological risk of having EPL teams or PGA players play in empty venues is damn near zero, but the reputation risk of those leagues running while everyone else is completely shut down is quite high.
You’re right and that’s what’s making me drink a lot of bourbon.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:22 am to ForeverEllisHugh
I am shut in my place by myself in a high risk city - with an apparent ten hour Petri dish back up at our international terminal at the airport right now - with triple digit cases and am going on bourbon #5. I feel ya.
Just got to stay cool and keep in mind that most people are irrational as hell.
Just got to stay cool and keep in mind that most people are irrational as hell.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:18 am to ForeverEllisHugh
Not a bad argument, but remember that everyone was originally planning on just proceeding without fans.
A NBA player spreading it to another player is what killed sports.
The dumbass coach that showed up with flu on national television also didn't help.
I would argue that this outcome was inevitable, but without those two incidents I think at least the conference tournaments were finished and we got a bracket set. Probably would have still got XFL games this weekend too.
I don't think we ever would have seen a march madness game though. School closures were independent of the sports world. This thing is just spreading too quickly and we still don't know how high our infection count is yet.
A NBA player spreading it to another player is what killed sports.
The dumbass coach that showed up with flu on national television also didn't help.
I would argue that this outcome was inevitable, but without those two incidents I think at least the conference tournaments were finished and we got a bracket set. Probably would have still got XFL games this weekend too.
I don't think we ever would have seen a march madness game though. School closures were independent of the sports world. This thing is just spreading too quickly and we still don't know how high our infection count is yet.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:07 am to ForeverEllisHugh
Cost benefit analysis in terms of human life is something that is almost always done behind the scenes, but that people don't want to think about or acknowledge, and if you bring it up you're called a monster.
The decisions being made in regards to the virus are heavily based on optics, PR, and politics.
We live in this world where for those considerations you have to toe the line "If it saves just one life it's worth it!" Everyone is forced to say that, and a select few stupid people actually believe it.
I call that the Oprah argument, because it's the type of thing Oprah would say and morons in her crowd would vehemently applaud. Over-priviledged suburban women with kids are pretty much ground zero for emotional based arguments.
The societal damage of the virus prevention measures, in terms of economic impact, is likely far worse than the damage of a few extra hundred thousand 70+ year olds dying.
I get why so many people think that's a horrific and cold thing to say, people aren't Vulcans and emotions still play a huge part in everything.
The decisions being made in regards to the virus are heavily based on optics, PR, and politics.
We live in this world where for those considerations you have to toe the line "If it saves just one life it's worth it!" Everyone is forced to say that, and a select few stupid people actually believe it.
I call that the Oprah argument, because it's the type of thing Oprah would say and morons in her crowd would vehemently applaud. Over-priviledged suburban women with kids are pretty much ground zero for emotional based arguments.
The societal damage of the virus prevention measures, in terms of economic impact, is likely far worse than the damage of a few extra hundred thousand 70+ year olds dying.
I get why so many people think that's a horrific and cold thing to say, people aren't Vulcans and emotions still play a huge part in everything.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 1:58 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:19 am to PEPE
quote:
The societal damage of the virus prevention measures, in terms of economic impact, is likely far worse than the damage of a few extra hundred thousand 70+ year olds dying.
I’m not going nearly that far. I am all for “flattening the curve” so that everyone who gets this can be treated.
My point was just that the impact of the Fan Ban on said curve is many times greater than that of cancellations.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:42 am to ForeverEllisHugh
quote:
Kellen Mond -> Jake Fromm -> Joe Burrow
Not a good example.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:49 am to ForeverEllisHugh
The more I think about it, the more I think it was a step in eliminate social gatherings.
Off work, off school, march madness? Yeah, I'll admit I would probably be watching with dudes in my neighborhood or something.
It also makes it somewhat more palatable for bars to close.
Off work, off school, march madness? Yeah, I'll admit I would probably be watching with dudes in my neighborhood or something.
It also makes it somewhat more palatable for bars to close.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:20 am to ForeverEllisHugh
There will never be a convincing argument for canceling seasons or telling teams they cannot practice.
Media driven freak out fest.
Media driven freak out fest.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:06 am to AtlantaLSUfan
Playing games with no fans would be under 100 people.
Teams, coaches, trainers, officials, broadcast team.
No: crowd, concession staff, ushers, security
Teams, coaches, trainers, officials, broadcast team.
No: crowd, concession staff, ushers, security
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