One thing stands out to me when looking at the case curve. The first spike had a much longer tail than the 2nd spike. In other words, the daily new cases are falling much faster after the 2nd spike than they did the first.

This could be because the testing volume was increasing rapidly as the 1st spike was subsiding. What do you all think the reason would be?

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Posted by DMAN1968

Member since Apr 2019

10151 posts

Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:53 am to Chromdome35

quote:
What do you all think the reason would be?

I have no proof but my hope is that this thing has been much more prevalent than anyone has imagined. That it has actually managed to get through a larger portion of the population as asymptomatic cases and we are closer to herd immunity than we realize.

I can rattle off 15-20 people that I know who have had it and I'm not exactly in a huge city center. Of those, I know of one fatality. He was relatively healthy but in his 80's.

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Posted by Ace Midnight

Between sanity and madness

Member since Dec 2006

89613 posts

Posted on 9/13/20 at 6:59 am to Chromdome35

quote:
What do you all think the reason would be?

Well, I think testing volume/capacity certainly impacts how the two data curves look (all frickery aside).

I think, at first, it was crushing nursing home residents and spreading like wildfire in highly dense population centers. That is why early deaths were so dramatic. That is where the testing focus was - they found it and it was fatal. As it poured through the tri-state area, the infrastructure was just being developed.

Insofar as there has been a "2nd" spike, it is more of a situation, again, IMHO, that different areas of the country were getting it so the nation got a "2nd wave", but it was mostly just different areas getting an initial acute exposure after reaching a critical mass of spreaders. They already knew about the nursing home residents, more mitigation measures were in place when those places got hit, and younger and younger folks were showing up with it (the younger folks generated weaker cases and probably generated a preference for spreading weaker strains, as is normal for pandemics).

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Posted by AUin02

Member since Jan 2012

4282 posts

Posted on 9/14/20 at 10:00 am to Chromdome35

I think it's the effect of herd immunity. With the 1st spike, you had big, dense urban centers being affected, then a spread out from there. With this 2nd spike, while it's affecting new areas, there has been enough travel between areas plus cases were already occurring at a lower rate in the 2nd spike areas during the 1st spike. So you had in built prior exposures in the 2nd spike geographies which would act like circuit breakers, disrupting the natural spread progression. So in the 2nd spike the virus hits an area, spikes up on the previously uninfected, but instead of continuing to spread out into a long tail, it hits an immunity wall as it encounters 1st spike infections who now possess some level of immunity.

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