re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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14% of those were tested positive for antibodies liked to SARS-CoV2, another 2% were tested positive for a current infection by PCR tests. This would mean 15% of the population have already acquired immunity.

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This was done in one of the hardest hit areas of Germany. Some simple modeling would probably show that the actual infected total for Germany, as a whole, is well below 15%. At a minimum, this appears to pull the rug out form under the UK paper that estimated that over 50% of the UK had already been infected, as of a couple of weeks ago. Also, the Stanford paper on research that is trying to establish that herd immunity has already be acquired in California.

The paper is in German, so it's hard to tell if they were able to account for false positives in the antibody testing. Regardless, we need a lot more studies like this to get a better picture of what is truly going on in various parts of the world.

Somewhat related, South Korea has now identified 75 patients that have come back with positive tests after being cleared. They are calling these "reactivation" of the virus and not reinfection. It is unclear if this might be biphasic. More widespread antibody testing could determine if this is a real risk or an issue with how SK is conducting testing.