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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 9/7/20 at 6:49 pm to the808bass
Posted on 9/7/20 at 6:49 pm to the808bass
quote:
Death certificate matching doesn’t happen over the weekend.
True, but even so we look to be cruising to one of the best days (cases and deaths) in months - weekends included (barring some last minute dump).
I've gone from cautious to cautiously optimistic on the first long weekend since the 4th.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 7:03 pm to the808bass
quote:
Death certificate matching doesn’t happen over the weekend.
In AZ they report the COVID death harvesting numbers on Tuesday and sometimes again on Friday. Makes me curious as to how we reported negative deaths this morning. We reported -2, which given our typical daily death toll these days seems to indicate somewhere between -10 and -30 deaths showed up on the report.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 8:57 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:59 pm to Ace Midnight
Get through this week without a "catchup" bump and we're in a good place. Get through the next 2-3 weeks and allow the college spike to pass without having a corresponding bump in hospitalizations and deaths, and we're home free. This month may be a little bumpy just due to schools and the ridiculous amounts of testing that come with it, but I think we're on the way out of it completely come October.
The 7 day death rate has quietly dropped by a substantial amount in the last two weeks.
The 7 day death rate has quietly dropped by a substantial amount in the last two weeks.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 1:24 am to AUMIS01
Passed Russia for most tests per capita among all countries with 10 million or more population.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 8:43 am to crazyatthecamp
But but but testing!!!!
Posted on 9/8/20 at 12:21 pm to Chromdome35
Does any body know how tests work? How do we know that what they check for doesnt show up in normal cold/flu from years past. If we did 750,000 tests a day in 2019, would they all be negative? I am sceptical of people that pushed for more testing as a solution. Just seems like a way to push numbers higher. 750,000 tests during H1N1 would show how many deaths/cases?
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:17 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:18 pm to Chromdome35
Don't put much stock in these numbers after a holiday weekend. Week over Week comparisons are invalid for today as we're looking at essentially Monday numbers compared last Tuesday's numbers.
Overall it is a good drop though.
Overall it is a good drop though.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:27 pm to Chromdome35
Even with the big testing drop the last couple of days, the percent positive dropping the way it has is a big deal. Hopefully we'll see hospitalizations drop below the June lows in the next 10 days or so (only about 4400 above June lows, and that low didn't include any hospitalizations in Florida I believe).
I'm still maintaining that states are starting to run out of people to test.
I'm still maintaining that states are starting to run out of people to test.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:35 pm to AUMIS01
The 7 day average of New cases has fallen by 45.3% to 36,509 since the peak of 66,682 on 7/23. 47 Days ago
The 7 day average # of deaths has fallen by 33.2% to 721 from the 8/12 peak of 1,080, 27 Days ago.
The 7 day average for daily tests has fallen by 14.6% from it's high of 820,865 on 7/29 to 701,386, 41 Days ago
The 7 Day average Positivity Rate has fallen to 5.1% from it's high of 8.6 on 7/13/20, 57 Days ago.
The 7 day average # of deaths has fallen by 33.2% to 721 from the 8/12 peak of 1,080, 27 Days ago.
The 7 day average for daily tests has fallen by 14.6% from it's high of 820,865 on 7/29 to 701,386, 41 Days ago
The 7 Day average Positivity Rate has fallen to 5.1% from it's high of 8.6 on 7/13/20, 57 Days ago.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:38 pm to AUMIS01
quote:
Hopefully we'll see hospitalizations drop below the June lows in the next 10 days or so (only about 4400 above June lows, and that low didn't include any hospitalizations in Florida I believe).
Missouri is seeing relatively high hospitalization rates versus deaths. We only had two deaths today. But we supposedly have over 800 Covid hospitalizations.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:47 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Don't put much stock in these numbers after a holiday weekend.
I agree - we'd almost have to go back to July 4th for and apples-to-apples.
quote:
Overall it is a good drop though.
Agreed. Even the appearance of progress is welcome at this point.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:49 pm to Chromdome35
All good metrics. Wouldn't surprise me to see some of the averages bump up in the next couple of days as states play catchup, then hopefully we'll resume the downward march by the end of the week. I'm sure it's too much to ask for the states to dump everything in a single day instead of dragging it out for the entire week.
Positivity dropping by 3.5% on average is a big deal, really big.
Positivity dropping by 3.5% on average is a big deal, really big.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 6:52 pm to the808bass
Missouri doesn't appear to have updated hospitalizations in a week? Been stuck at 934 hospitalizations since September 2. Good news is the Midwest states taking their turn in the barrel appear to be the last states up to the plate nationwide.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 7:02 pm to the808bass
quote:
Missouri is seeing relatively high hospitalization rates versus deaths. We only had two deaths today. But we supposedly have over 800 Covid hospitalizations.
Something I noticed in AZ - as hospitalizations with the elderly began to subside, we saw a ramp-up of younger people being admitted - which also drove the average length of hospital stay down. A few interesting dots to connect.
This post was edited on 9/8/20 at 8:03 pm
Posted on 9/8/20 at 7:44 pm to AUMIS01
quote:
Been stuck at 934 hospitalizations since September 2. Good news is the Midwest states taking their turn in the barrel appear to be the last states up to the plate nationwide.
State dashboard says 832 or something like that.
Interestingly enough, as of June, the average LOS for hospitalizations was all the way down to 3. May be 23 hours by now.
Posted on 9/9/20 at 9:22 am to Chromdome35
Something has been bothering me about the numbers for awhile now, specifically the total recovered versus active cases.
WOM lists nearly 3.8 million recoveries and just north of 2.5 million active cases. But as I look at state numbers, I know there is no way the active case load isn’t way overcooked and the recoveries way undercooked.
Take Florida. They list 528k of their cases active. The top 3 counties (Miami Dade, Broward and West Palm) list total cases minus deaths equals active cases. Not 1 has gone into the recovered category. Those three carry more than half of the active cases in the state. At worst, their active case count should stand at around 250k.
California is another example. Between Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara , they carry around 280k of the state’s 370k active cases. None have reported recoveries.
Although I didn’t see breakdowns by county of other states, Georgia, Arizona, Virginia, Maryland and Missouri have grossly undercounted recoveries. There is no way that 75-80% of their total cases are still active. In Maryland’s case over 90%.
You have states and municipalities that are basing some of their decisions off numbers that aren’t close to reality. I believe our “active” case count in this country is around 1.7-1.8M. That’s a 30% drop in what is given as “the number”. Our recovery number should be closer to 4.5M.
WOM lists nearly 3.8 million recoveries and just north of 2.5 million active cases. But as I look at state numbers, I know there is no way the active case load isn’t way overcooked and the recoveries way undercooked.
Take Florida. They list 528k of their cases active. The top 3 counties (Miami Dade, Broward and West Palm) list total cases minus deaths equals active cases. Not 1 has gone into the recovered category. Those three carry more than half of the active cases in the state. At worst, their active case count should stand at around 250k.
California is another example. Between Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara , they carry around 280k of the state’s 370k active cases. None have reported recoveries.
Although I didn’t see breakdowns by county of other states, Georgia, Arizona, Virginia, Maryland and Missouri have grossly undercounted recoveries. There is no way that 75-80% of their total cases are still active. In Maryland’s case over 90%.
You have states and municipalities that are basing some of their decisions off numbers that aren’t close to reality. I believe our “active” case count in this country is around 1.7-1.8M. That’s a 30% drop in what is given as “the number”. Our recovery number should be closer to 4.5M.
Posted on 9/9/20 at 10:49 am to Volsfan82169
Haven't looked at other states, but Georgia has publicly said they aren't tracking recoveries at all. Out of the folks that have actually tested positive and are in the counts, we're likely ~10k actual active cases right now, at most.
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