re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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So since the CDC director is saying that cases of coronavirus are likely 10 fold to what is reported, wouldn’t that make the death rate more like .482% instead of 4.82%? This is going to wind up being .1% or less when it’s all said and done, based on that revelation.

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The numbers line up to about 8X. The death rate is 70-80bps right now. I expect it to settle in around 50bps or lower. This has been known for some time.

Is tiger doc a doctor?

I haven't posted in this thread in a long time, mostly because I lost interest once our fate became obvious. I guess I'll give some updates on what I'm seeing and what I think

1. Almost nothing we've tried works. Remdesivir is incredibly underwhelming. Actemra has some benefit if used just as the cytokine storm is starting but it's kind of like trying to hit a bullet with a bullet- it also turns your patient into an AIDS patient for a week or longer, so you have to really be cautious. Regardless, we are getting better at supportive care which is having an impact. Little things like anticoagulating severe patients, minimizing fluid intake, aggressive O2 use without intubation, etc.

2. The data coming out of the UK with dexamethasone is promising and we've incorporated it into our treatment algorithm. Haven't been using it long enough to formulate a meaningful opinion.

3. Generally speaking, we are seeing a lot more "incidental findings" of COVID when patients present for other things. We've gotten to the point we CT-chest most patients being admitted just to decide if they should be on covid precautions or not. The people who are presenting with COVID aren't as sick as those presenting earlier in the outbreak.

4. Related to #3, I think the first "wave" of this took out a lot of the highly vulnerable population and we're seeing it seep into those less likely to have serious sequelae. Most people we are admitting now seem to be community spread with actual body weights of 150-200% their IBW.

5. We have had multiple people in my department pop positive at this point but their course was fairly mild. One thought they had food poisoning at first and felt achy for a day but that was it. Another had a bad fever for one day and that was it.

This is going to be here awhile and there's really nothing we can do until there's a vaccine except to slow the spread with mask usage. I do believe even basic cloth masks prevent the spread (not receipt), so if you can manage, its fair to wear them outside just from a public health standpoint.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases

It’s basically been confirmed to be useless once symptoms start. Jury is out on prophylaxis but I’m not hopeful.

If it does work, you almost certainly have to take zinc with it.

Good to hear an update!

Time to an antiviral is now. Favipiravir has fairly reasonable efficacy and is being approved in countries across the globe. India just approved it.

LINK /

The reason you haven’t heard about it is no one in America stands to make any money from it.

The time to vaccine is at least December or January, if we rush it, for development and then we have to manufacture it. So at least 12-18 months, so you aren’t that far off.

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The reason you haven’t heard about it is no one in America stands to make any money from it.

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Can this be true? Certainly the fedgov can spend the $10B or whatever the amount would be and just make it available...right?

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They could do the exact same emergency authorization they did for Gilead. Don’t know why they don’t.

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Who's decision is it?