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re: There’s more oil and gas than ever — and the industry is tanking
Posted on 2/11/20 at 6:23 pm to Decisions
Posted on 2/11/20 at 6:23 pm to Decisions
You are looking at this backwards. You need to look who has the best reserves. That is clearly Saudi followed by Iraq and russia. US shale has been drilling a lot of uneconomic oil wells on cheap interest money. Instead of lowering activity and waiting for the nat gas market to rebound after flooding the market the american public independents pushed into shale oil and managed to overwhelm the crude market as well. The debt is starting to come due and the pain for the domestic shale oil companies is going to be immense the next year or two. The entire industry is uninvestible right now until the market stabilizes. Now we have the double whammy of generationally low natural gas prices. While the gas market will likely rebalance I’d wager maybe 10-15 percent of these companies will still be alive to profit from the rebound. Anyone in the business knows you want to own the best reserves and that’s definitely not an accurate description of USA shale oil.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:12 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
You are looking at this backwards. You need to look who has the best reserves. That is clearly Saudi followed by Iraq and russia.
I never disparaged the reserves of these three. That is undoubtedly their strength. Just their ability to produce uninterrupted.
ETA: This isn’t some base investing guidance. I’m not advocating people to go buy up all the energy stock they can afford. I’m just making some big picture observations about where I see the market going eventually.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 8:09 pm
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