re: There’s more oil and gas than ever — and the industry is tanking

quote:

---

Takes about ~180-200 months to reach this (5-6%) terminal decline (in the Marcellus anyway) and most shale wells have not been producing that long. The App basin is riddled with pipeline and surface constraints, so the wells that have been online even close to that long have usually been shut in for a time...will be interesting to see what the real terminal declines per basin shake out to be.

---

I was talking about shale oil versus gas. Gas works at the right prices and the history of the Antrim in Michigan shows it can flow for a while at low volumes. I don't really believe the recovery slides 20 years out put out by RRC and the like, but if the wells are well past pay out and producing cash it seems somewhat immaterial. The key is good gas prices to get quick payouts then minimal maintenance to produce gas wells. We clearly don't have that natural gas price right now. It's harder to move oil molecules through shale and this clearly is seen in the results in the Permian, Eagleford, etc. Heavily drilled cores resulting in companies drilling worse acreage and the $50 oil price doesn't cut it. The density of Karnes County, TX Eagleford wells is almost mind numbing,