re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Let's do a little analysis. Italy today reported 4053 new cases, almost the same as the 4050 that they reported yesterday. Both of these are the lowest since March 17 and considerably down from the 6203 reported on Thursday. And Italy is testing more people every day, so the drop in cases isn't the result of fewer tests.

Italy's epidemic began in Lombardy (Milan), and over 40% of the country's cases are from that one region. Lombardy was shut down on March 9th. Yesterday, the total number of people in Lombardy who are currently infected (positives minus recoveries and deaths) declined for the first time. Today, the total number of people in intensive care in Lombardy dropped for the first time, from 1330 to 1324. These are stable trends -- I've gone over Italy's data for the last ten days.

So, let us say that the time in Lombardy from shut down to peak ICU is 22 days. The rest of Italy isn't far behind, and we can now see that Spain is flattening its curve as well.

How will the curve in Italy compare to our own in Louisiana? Italy's shutdown was harder than ours, with penalties for leaving home. On the other hand, over 40,000 Italian were cited for disobedience in the first week of the lockdown. Lombardy's curve undoubtedly was extended by the fact that overcrowded hospitals and lack of PPE turned hospitals into significant vectors of viral transmission.

In Louisiana, we have our own disobedience with the governor's order, and our shutdown isn't as extreme, but we've also been testing a much higher percentage at our stage than Italy was at its. We're more obese, while they smoke more and have an older population. I'd guess that it about balances out.

Louisiana received a stay-at-home order on March 22, so it's been nine days. If our curve were similar to Lombardy's, our peak ICU date would be April 13th. The current modeled projection is April 8th, which is not far from that number. But, if our curve follows Lombardy, then this model might be a little bit too optimistic. LINK