2020 Democratic Nomination: The Early States

Quick Overview

Where is Biden looking strongest?
Nevada
South Carolina
Texas
North Carolina
Florida

Where is Buttigieg looking strongest?
Iowa
New Hampshire

Where is Warren looking strongest?
California
New Hampshire
Massachusetts

Where is Sanders looking strongest?
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
California
Massachusetts


* Sanders and Warren are occupying the same voter space. They are splitting far left progressive voters and allowing Biden and Buttigieg to gain early momentum in the primaries. I can see it getting nasty early between Sanders and Warren as neither of them will be able to gain much traction with the other remaining in the race? Still, if one or the other dropped out then the surviving candidate would jump Biden and become the presumptive favorite. The problem is both are raising too much money to bow out anytime soon. The best case scenario for Biden if somehow both Sanders and Warren remain in the race after Super Tuesday.

* Whose supporting Biden? Black voters simply have no viable option other than Biden. There’s plenty of ammunition on Biden to crack his black support but none of these other candidates can capitalize. Remember 25% of Democratic Party Voters are black and more than half of vote in states like Bama and Mississippi. Currently Biden is tracking above 40% with black voters where he is still a household name. The Former Delaware Senator benefits greatly from being Obama’s VP. White centrist voters who are scared of moving too far left will feel safer sticking with Biden. Mayor Pete is Biden’s biggest rival amongst the more moderate white Democrats.

* Buttigieg is strong amongst white affluent progressives that poll stronger on social issues. This shows in his support in mostly white states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, Latinos and Blacks are staying away mostly. How bad are the Mayors numbers with blacks, under 4%! Even the young progressive blacks disapprove of Mayor Pete’s more conservative politics. The Mayor troubles continues with Latinos who make up over 20% of voter block among Democrats. In Nevada his numbers are especially weak in a state with a significant Latino vote. Mayor Pete’s strength is white voters making over $50,000 while having little support with whites under $50,000. Overall Buttigieg is simply not popular with voters outside of whiter states.

Conclusion:

This race may very well come down to Biden and Bernie. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Warren to get out so Bernie can take the nomination and there will also be pressure on Buttiegieg to clear the field for Biden. Still, Mayor Pete ($24 mill) continues to outpace Biden ($22 mill) and Warren ($21 mill) in fundraising. Also, Bernie’s $34 million in the 4th Qtr means he’s probably here until the convention.

Remember this is just a snap shot of the race. Still I wonder what this race would look like if Sen Sherrod Brown had run this cycle.?