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A few thoughts on the game plan against Florida.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:31 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:31 am
I watched most of the Auburn/Florida game and what I didn't watch I listened through a radio app. I have to say I was not impressed with Florida's offense as much as I was their defense (obvious) and Auburn's complete inability to keep their play makers in front of them.
Here's my TLDR for those that don't want to read shite like this on a Monday morning:
If we tackle at the LOS and keep everything in front of us, we will win this game and win it big.
Contrary to the nation's belief, our run defense is actually pretty stout. Obviously it was stellar against Utah State, but it's been reliable all year. Their best playmaker, IMO, is Perine. If we can run sideline to sideline, which we do with the best in the nation, and get off blocks and wrap up, that's a huge factor taken out of the game right there. Auburn was gashed on the ground only a few times, but that's all it took for him to take one to the house. Shut Perine down and force Trask to beat you through the air.
That seems like a pretty simple task for Trask, considering our pass defense has been mediocre if we want to be polite. We actually only give up 6.43 yards per attempt, which means we defend the pass well, but we are giving up around 12 per completion, which is solidly middle of the pack nationally. It's not where we want to be, and it means that when we do get beat they are on longer passes, which is pretty counterproductive to stopping a big play offense.
Auburn was able to pressure Trask, which led to a lot of turnovers. Nix is arse, for sure, but most of those turnovers on both sides were takeaways rather than giveaways. Pressure on the QB forcing shite throws, good backside pressure, and straight up jarring hits. I do not think we will be able to get pressure on Trask that well. Not to say, I'm worried that we won't be able to pressure Trask, I outright think that going into this game with the plan of forcing Trask into bad throws is not going to work. I know we have had plenty of guys out, but I can't see us all of a sudden bringing a monster pass rush in our biggest game of the season so far.
I will get lambasted for this, but it's just the way I see it. Trask has a fricking noodle. He doesn't hit the deep ball well. He gets the ball to his playmakers and lets them do the rest. have supreme confidence in Stingley on an island. I have a good bit of confidence in Fulton. But if we are manning up, especially getting our backers on one of these backs, I'm not sure they don't take one to the house. I think the best plan of attack is to keep everything in front of us, play a conservative defensive scheme, and trust our offense to outscore them. Trask will frick up eventually. They don't have the horses to score at will, and I truly think we do.
I know they have a good defense, but Nix made some absolutely crucial errors that kept UF ahead. yes most were takeaways, but the INT in the endzone was not. The fumble on the PR that set florida up with goal to go was not. It was a series of boneheaded mistakes for Auburn that kept it from being close.
Score Prediction: LSU 38 - UF 21
Here's my TLDR for those that don't want to read shite like this on a Monday morning:
If we tackle at the LOS and keep everything in front of us, we will win this game and win it big.
Contrary to the nation's belief, our run defense is actually pretty stout. Obviously it was stellar against Utah State, but it's been reliable all year. Their best playmaker, IMO, is Perine. If we can run sideline to sideline, which we do with the best in the nation, and get off blocks and wrap up, that's a huge factor taken out of the game right there. Auburn was gashed on the ground only a few times, but that's all it took for him to take one to the house. Shut Perine down and force Trask to beat you through the air.
That seems like a pretty simple task for Trask, considering our pass defense has been mediocre if we want to be polite. We actually only give up 6.43 yards per attempt, which means we defend the pass well, but we are giving up around 12 per completion, which is solidly middle of the pack nationally. It's not where we want to be, and it means that when we do get beat they are on longer passes, which is pretty counterproductive to stopping a big play offense.
Auburn was able to pressure Trask, which led to a lot of turnovers. Nix is arse, for sure, but most of those turnovers on both sides were takeaways rather than giveaways. Pressure on the QB forcing shite throws, good backside pressure, and straight up jarring hits. I do not think we will be able to get pressure on Trask that well. Not to say, I'm worried that we won't be able to pressure Trask, I outright think that going into this game with the plan of forcing Trask into bad throws is not going to work. I know we have had plenty of guys out, but I can't see us all of a sudden bringing a monster pass rush in our biggest game of the season so far.
I will get lambasted for this, but it's just the way I see it. Trask has a fricking noodle. He doesn't hit the deep ball well. He gets the ball to his playmakers and lets them do the rest. have supreme confidence in Stingley on an island. I have a good bit of confidence in Fulton. But if we are manning up, especially getting our backers on one of these backs, I'm not sure they don't take one to the house. I think the best plan of attack is to keep everything in front of us, play a conservative defensive scheme, and trust our offense to outscore them. Trask will frick up eventually. They don't have the horses to score at will, and I truly think we do.
I know they have a good defense, but Nix made some absolutely crucial errors that kept UF ahead. yes most were takeaways, but the INT in the endzone was not. The fumble on the PR that set florida up with goal to go was not. It was a series of boneheaded mistakes for Auburn that kept it from being close.
Score Prediction: LSU 38 - UF 21
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:34 am to Odysseus32
Florida is soft across the middle where JB9 loves to operate. I think our D found it's stride.
I like your score but I'd say Florida gets a garbage time TD to make it look respectable after LSU physically dominates the entire game.
Trask may not finish the game if he comes in gimpy on that knee.
I like your score but I'd say Florida gets a garbage time TD to make it look respectable after LSU physically dominates the entire game.
Trask may not finish the game if he comes in gimpy on that knee.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:36 am to ccomeaux
I 100% agree. I think no matter what they do, Burrow is going to pick them apart. They blitz? Burrow's gonna go quick to Chase/JJ/whoever else. They make him drop it in the breadbasket? Burrow can do that. They blanket everyone, double teaming a guy or two, Burrow can take off.
I think they are underestimating this offense and it's going to hurt.
I think they are underestimating this offense and it's going to hurt.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 11:38 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:39 am to Odysseus32
quote:
I think no matter what they do, Burrow is going to pick them apart.
Yes, they act like Joe didn't see tons of pressure in the first half of the Texas game. Pressure is pressure. But he proved that he can operate under pressure, in fact, Joe is probably one of the best QBs I've ever seen under pressure in the pocket. He really trusts his arm this year.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:40 am to Odysseus32
quote:
considering our pass defense has been mediocre if we want to be polite.
Nice writeup, but you are way off with this one. Our pass defense has been excellent. Even against Texas it was good. We just kept missing tackles that extended their drives. And Fulton lost a couple of battles that he usually wins. Lastly, that TD that Harris swatted at but missed. In short, it was a very good pass defense against Texas that just suffered a few near-misses. Our defense kicked the shite out of everyone else.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:40 am to beantown
quote:
Joe is probably one of the best QBs I've ever seen under pressure in the pocket.
I'd agree, he feeds on it.
He's no Mayfield in college though. Baker was actually better on the run at OU than he was in the pocket. It was insane.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:41 am to Penrod
quote:
Even against Texas it was good. We just kept missing tackles that extended their drives.
Not to mention offenses have been picking on Kary Vincent as he has been a liability in coverage. The Fulton switch to nickel has cleaned up a big hole there.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:42 am to beantown
quote:
they act like Joe didn't see tons of pressure in the first half of the Texas game.
Pressure from a six man rush is way different than pressure from a four man rush. When Texas sent six there were wide open receivers all over the field. If Florida pressures with four Burrow will have to thread the needle in a split second.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:47 am to Odysseus32
Perine is not our best playmaker. He is our best all around back. Pierce is the better runner and Davis as well but they aren't great at either catching or picking up blitzes. Perine was actually better last year. Toney would be playmaker #1 but he's hurt so it's either Swain or Jefferson. I agree also Trask doesnt have a strong arm but is very accurate for the most part. He jsut doesn't have pocket awareness. We are very susceptible to passes in the middle because Reese is a great run stopping linebacker but horrible in coverage. Our WR core is deep and hoping to see some jet sweeps with copeland but if we can't pass protect it will be a very long night
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:48 am to Penrod
quote:
If Florida pressures with four Burrow will have to thread the needle in a split second.
Good point. Hopefully Ingram being back will make a big difference.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:49 am to Odysseus32
One thing I noticed is they seem to love to work slants to the middle of the field with Freddie Swain. Based on the success that Duvernay from Texas had running those plays through the middle, I expect Florida will try to exploit matchups on linebackers.
Beyond that, they run that TE Pitts more like a WR, splitting him out wide where he seems to be a favorite target. They like the size mismatch as he's 6'6. We may see Stingley covering him.
Beyond that, they run that TE Pitts more like a WR, splitting him out wide where he seems to be a favorite target. They like the size mismatch as he's 6'6. We may see Stingley covering him.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:50 am to Odysseus32
Florida's offensive line is banged up and not especially good. We SHOULD be able to get pressure.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:51 am to Lsuhoohoo
I would love to see Stingley on Pitts And Henderson on Chase
Posted on 10/7/19 at 11:54 am to ccomeaux
FLA is gonna beat more beat up than LSU after last weeks AU game.... that could make a huge difference, plus the emotional letdown after such a big win.... it’s human nature.....
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:07 pm to Penrod
quote:
Nice writeup, but you are way off with this one. Our pass defense has been excellent. Even against Texas it was good. We just kept missing tackles that extended their drives. And Fulton lost a couple of battles that he usually wins. Lastly, that TD that Harris swatted at but missed. In short, it was a very good pass defense against Texas that just suffered a few near-misses. Our defense kicked the shite out of everyone else.
I don't know about advanced metrics, but I consider YAC to be a part of pass defense.
I think I recall the TD you're referencing and my initial thought was that it was a lucky pass, but as the game went on my opinion changed that maybe Ehlinger's accuracy just improved that much.
For what it's worth, I hope you're right. It's just that when another QB drops back I pray that they don't catch the ball because we seem to be averse to stopping them after the catch. I know we didn't get to see much of that against Utah St as our defense look much improved, but I am still waiting before I call our pass defense good.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:17 pm to Chompsuey
quote:
I would love to see Stingley on Pitts And Henderson on Chase
+1 to that. I'm lit for this game and it's a Monday. Florida has some burners @ WR that don't get talked about bc you don't throw the ball as much as LSU and Alabama. Gonna be a good test all around for the Tigers. I just don't think this is the year for the Gators. Rough schedule and some injuries to impact players. 10-2. But I also never discount a Mullen coached team. Hope your guys are ready for another bout. Tough having this game right after the Auburn game.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:22 pm to beantown
quote:
Not to mention offenses have been picking on Kary Vincent as he has been a liability in coverage. The Fulton switch to nickel has cleaned up a big hole there.
The switch looked fantastic this week. I think Flott is a pretty good cover corner and only saw him get beat one time Saturday.
Also wanted to add, I'd be more nervous about this game if Emory Jones was at QB. Not because I think he's all world, just because I think he's a more Mullen type of QB and we have no film on the dude.
With Trask we know what we will get.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:30 pm to Odysseus32
I would copy some of what Auburn did. You must take away the bubble screen game at all costs. Try to keep the damage done by Swain to a minimum by double teaming when possible. Blitz early and often. Florida's o-line is bad, and the quarterback is injured. On offense, play fast. Florida likes to grab and hold in the secondary, and I would too if I could get away with it. Our receivers must be physical and get off the line and separate. I would use a lot of no back.
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