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re: Israel destroys fake news polls, Bibi wins 5th term
Posted on 4/10/19 at 10:21 am to More&Les
Posted on 4/10/19 at 10:21 am to More&Les
Technically nothing is assured until the coalition is formed. Here's what we know:
1. Remember in Israel voters vote for parties, not candidates, and the 120 Knesset seats are allocated based on % of votes provided a party gets at least 3.25% of the national vote.
2. Parties can and often make alliances so as to gain the maximum number of seats. For the right-wing parties, key ones include Likud with United Right (two secular conservative parties) and Shas with United Torah Judaism (UTJ, this aligns the two Orthodox Jewish parties).
3. Likud won 35 seats (+5 from the last Knesset) and its alliance partner United Right won five seats (-3). So right out of the gate they have 40 seats. Only 21 to go.
4. Shas won 8 seats (+1) and its alliance partner UTJ also won 8 seats (+2). Shas has always aligned with the coalition in power (regardless of left-wing or right-wing), UTJ aligns historically with the right-wing. So add 16 seats. Only 5 to go.
5. Kulanu is center-right and agreed to align with either Blue & White or Likud. They won 4 seats (-6). If they align then only 1 seat to go.
6. The kicker is Yisrael Beiteinu (they won five seats, -1). They're also right-wing but their leader, Avigdor Leiberman, and Bibi dislike each other. A lot. If they join then you have 65 seats, and still 61 if Kulanu changes its mind.
1. Remember in Israel voters vote for parties, not candidates, and the 120 Knesset seats are allocated based on % of votes provided a party gets at least 3.25% of the national vote.
2. Parties can and often make alliances so as to gain the maximum number of seats. For the right-wing parties, key ones include Likud with United Right (two secular conservative parties) and Shas with United Torah Judaism (UTJ, this aligns the two Orthodox Jewish parties).
3. Likud won 35 seats (+5 from the last Knesset) and its alliance partner United Right won five seats (-3). So right out of the gate they have 40 seats. Only 21 to go.
4. Shas won 8 seats (+1) and its alliance partner UTJ also won 8 seats (+2). Shas has always aligned with the coalition in power (regardless of left-wing or right-wing), UTJ aligns historically with the right-wing. So add 16 seats. Only 5 to go.
5. Kulanu is center-right and agreed to align with either Blue & White or Likud. They won 4 seats (-6). If they align then only 1 seat to go.
6. The kicker is Yisrael Beiteinu (they won five seats, -1). They're also right-wing but their leader, Avigdor Leiberman, and Bibi dislike each other. A lot. If they join then you have 65 seats, and still 61 if Kulanu changes its mind.
0
Posted on 4/10/19 at 10:23 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Who their leader is doesn’t impact the United States in any way.
I would like this to be true, but it simply isn't.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 10:49 am to Homesick Tiger
We don’t need Israeli shekels to fund our weapons development.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 12:16 pm to tarzana
I don’t known if Rabin could have resolved the Jerusalem issue. He would have tried though. He was the last of that liberal European tradition.
I think Sharon was actually the best last chance though. He was ruthless, practical, and unlike Netanyahu, put Israel, and the future of Israel first.
Netanyahu is unwittingly undermining that future to save his own skin. This annexation and canton policy will upend the demographics in Israel. They will not give citizenship to the Palestinians, for now, but I don’t see how they avoid it in the long term. There will be perpetual violence and unrest. And they will become an international pariah, much like South Africa.
I think Sharon was actually the best last chance though. He was ruthless, practical, and unlike Netanyahu, put Israel, and the future of Israel first.
Netanyahu is unwittingly undermining that future to save his own skin. This annexation and canton policy will upend the demographics in Israel. They will not give citizenship to the Palestinians, for now, but I don’t see how they avoid it in the long term. There will be perpetual violence and unrest. And they will become an international pariah, much like South Africa.
This post was edited on 4/10/19 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 4/10/19 at 12:22 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
They will not give citizenship to the Palestinians, for now, but I don’t see how they avoid it in the long term.
Yep. The Israelis made that bed. Eventually they are going to either give the Palestinians some of the territory or they will have to let them vote. Keeping that large of a disenfranchised population is untenable.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 12:35 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
And they will become an international pariah, much like South Africa.
The UN "Human Rights" Committee (cough cough) already does. So what else is new?
Posted on 4/10/19 at 12:51 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Netanyahu is unwittingly undermining that future for the sake of his own skin. This annexation and canton policy will upend the demographics in Israel. They will not give citizenship to the Palestinians, for now, but I don’t see how they avoid it in the long term
Exactly right. Israel faces a real demographic issue, regardless of what they do with regard to the Palestinians. They've hemmed themselves in and are relying on trying to starve Iranian economy, in the belief that somehow Iranian regional interests would change. They might, but the Iranian security state has been committed to the same geopolitical interests since the Shah era. I don't see how that would change unless they are able to dismantle the security apparatus.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 2:14 pm to Quidam65
A real economic boycott.
Europe would stop buying their exports, and refuse to sell anything to Israel.
We would fall under pressure to do the same.
Europe would stop buying their exports, and refuse to sell anything to Israel.
We would fall under pressure to do the same.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 2:21 pm to Jake_LaMotta
Wrong - you support God’s chosen people - you get God’s favor. It’s not hard
Posted on 4/10/19 at 2:42 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Why do you care about this? The infatuation with Israel makes absolutely no sense to me.
The reason we should all care is the media tries to influence the election by polls. Only idiots fail to understand why this is not good for our world.
Posted on 4/10/19 at 2:52 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Who their leader is doesn’t impact the United States in any way.
In making this statement you're choosing to ignore reality. If you want to go on record as saying the U.S. should not be so involved in Israel's sovereignty, then that's a point you can make.
However, we have to accept the reality that we are deeply tied to Israel and as such, the individual and party leading them matters a great deal.
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