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re: Louisiana GOP lost several State House races to Democrats last night
Posted on 4/1/19 at 8:27 am to Bard
Posted on 4/1/19 at 8:27 am to Bard
quote:
If neither GOP candidate drops out there will be no run-off as JBE will win due to the split GOP vote.
The only thing matters is if JBE cannot get above the floor for a Democrat in Louisiana which is anywhere from 40 to 45% to the necessary 50.1% to win outright.
Even back in 2015 with three republicans running against each other, JBE was still forced into a runoff after getting 41% of the vote.
The Louisiana Democrat will always get 40-45%, it’s just an issue of getting enough republican crossovers and moderate Democrats who usually vote republican.
3
Posted on 4/1/19 at 8:39 am to Sentrius
quote:
The Louisiana Democrat will always get 40-45%, it’s just an issue of getting enough republican crossovers and moderate Democrats who usually vote republican.
Exactly, this is where the race is decided.
Moderate and conservative Dems and finicky Republicans decide these big races.
Posted on 4/1/19 at 9:58 am to Sentrius
quote:
The Louisiana Democrat will always get 40-45%, it’s just an issue of getting enough republican crossovers and moderate Democrats who usually vote republican.
And/Or just having enough Rs not vote bc they hate the candidate
Posted on 4/1/19 at 10:57 am to Sentrius
quote:
Even back in 2015 with three republicans running against each other, JBE was still forced into a runoff after getting 41% of the vote.
The Louisiana Democrat will always get 40-45%, it’s just an issue of getting enough republican crossovers and moderate Democrats who usually vote republican.
You're forgetting about the incumbent factor. Depending on the stats you look at the rate for incumbent Governors to win ranges from 63%-87%. This is on top of my reasoning about there being no major scandals being widely reported about him, the rhetorical platform of improved state finances and the low name-recognition of his challengers below I-10.
It's possible the turnout for Trump helps drive a runoff, but if so I still see JBE as winning as things stand right now.
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