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Whats the better investment?

Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:09 am
Posted by southside
SW of Monroe
Member since Aug 2018
647 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:09 am
Asking for a friend....

Assuming 401k is invested to employers contributions max 6%, IRA is maxxed, and there is a nest egg aside for emergency funds for 6 months.

!!! He now has $75K cash to put somewhere for growth and earning!!!!

Would you purchase 2 duplexes(4 doors)with a 20 year loan (15% down 4.5% interest). The duplex is earning monthly at 1% of purchase price at that mortgage rate.

OR

Hand it over to a financial advisor and hope that in 20 years he made you some good money.

(Sorry for the earlier blank post, Enter button slipped on me)
This post was edited on 2/25/19 at 11:35 am
Posted by Parade Grounds
BR,LA
Member since Jun 2017
866 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:11 am to
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12906 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:15 am to
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
82295 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:32 am to
Posted by hungryone
river parishes
Member since Sep 2010
11987 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:38 am to
Why are these the only two options? A false choice is no choice at all.

$75K isn't much to get a financial advisor's time or attention. With that small a portfolio, you're better off buying three low-cost funds and forgetting about directly held stocks.

But there are endless options here, not just two.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
82295 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:45 am to
quote:

The duplex is earning monthly at 1% of purchase price at that mortgage rate.


still doesn't tell me shite other than gross rent %. what is purchase price? run all numbers. find out what the COC return will be. need actual DP number. find out what the average PCF will be. you need to run PITI, vacancies, maintenance, PM, etc. all that needs to be factored in before choosing just for starters. tell him to run it or should i say YOU.
This post was edited on 2/25/19 at 11:51 am
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12906 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

20 year loan (15% down 4.5% interest)


I'm honestly curious where he is able to get this quote or am I missing something? Rates should be closer to 6% and typically 20% down unless running through some sort of reno loan/foreclosure.
Posted by Agro70
Member since Aug 2018
32 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 3:39 pm to
Invest it in Cryptocurrency and sell high. Make more money that in a few months than investing it in a 401k.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
82295 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

Invest it in iraqi dinars and sell high.


FIFY
Posted by Mr.Perfect
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2013
17496 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 5:55 pm to
Duplex
Posted by LSUA 75
Colfax,La.
Member since Jan 2019
4323 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 6:08 pm to
Personally I would open account with discount broker and invest in index funds.Fidelity has fund I’m in-4/1 index.Financial advisor tend to do what’s best for they’re finances,not the client.Rental property-I don’t have the temperament to deal with the hassle.I do have some money invested in real estate investment trusts.
Posted by bigtruckin1775
Member since Feb 2019
33 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 6:16 pm to
Not enough info to evaluate the duplexes, but just build a pro forma...

Financial advisors are a waste of money. You can outperform ~half of them on your own, before fees are calculated with 30 minutes of time invested. Think about it this way... say the "market" goes up something wild- 80% in a year... Almost all "advisors" putting you in unlevered long positions, which is all they can do, should make money- some will make 40% some will make 100%... But the average should be ~80%, since that is the "market."

Now, instead of giving some clown 100-200bps per year, you could match the average returns by just plowing into $SPY or $IVV for 7bps, which will give you exposure to ~85% of the "market" Almost every brokerage has access to one of these commission free.

Now here is where it gets really cool. Over 20 years (your stated time horizon), let's make two assumptions: your advisor is "only" charging you 200bps and he is an "average advisor" in terms of returns. Say Market CAGR over the next 20 years is 9% with DIRP. Over 20 years, the average fool with that 75k using an advisor would have ~$270,000. But if you skipped the advisor and did it yourself you'd have ~$380,000. That's a 410% return vs. a 260% return over 20 years. Now you're beating almost everyone who uses financial advisors. Winning is awesome and easy, and this is an easy way to win.

If you're able to find some wizard stock picker who's a CFA and went to HBS willing to take your 75k... go for it! But the guys who are good at picking stocks generally aren't financial advisors; They do buy side analysis for banks or funds and they charge 2 and 20. It's why the average financial advisor doesn't even achieve average returns... because they're competing against HBS wizards with far less capital and zero access to leverage. Because average financial advisors fail to even achieve average returns, you win even more bigly against the Joneses who use some general studies non-target bro at Northwestern Mutual. Financial Advisors are salesmen, not stock pickers. Now if you want to minimize risk, decrease Beta, etc. you need to invest more than 30 minutes or use a financial advisor because they actually do have some training on portfolio allocation and risk management and are useful to those who are completely financially illiterate. But concerning yourself with Beta is Beta and unnecessary in your hypothetical

TL;DR: Financial Advisors=Bad, $SPY=Good

Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 2/25/19 at 6:42 pm to
VTSAX
Posted by LSUA 75
Colfax,La.
Member since Jan 2019
4323 posts
Posted on 2/26/19 at 10:28 am to
I don’t understand the fascination with investing in rental properties,people seem to have the idea just buy a house/duplex,get some renters and the money just rolls in every month.The people I know that have rentals and the stories they tell,it’s a huge hassle that I couldn’t deal with.Friend of mine,that was his retirement plan-has 20 something rentals.He says he works harder and has more stress than he ever had before he retired.
Posted by southside
SW of Monroe
Member since Aug 2018
647 posts
Posted on 2/26/19 at 1:51 pm to
Sorry for the Vague post, I should have clarified for better and more valuable responses.

2 duplexes(4 doors) priced near $300k built in 2001. Renting out for $750(door). Property Tax Estimate is around $3200. Very good demand for occupancy in the area and simple but good construction so I would consider those fees/risks to be smaller than normal. Update on the Loan, it would be 20% at 5.7% for 20 years. So estimate around $75k for down payment and closing costs.

I was told a while back, as a ball park factor to use 2 months rent to cover taxes, maintenance, and vacancies...which basically work out almost in line with this property.

I ran the REI on the spreadsheet from the stickies. I also bounced it off some basic funds and their 20 year history(in this bull market). Looks to be much more lucrative in the REI side but will come with some work and headaches as well.

This IS for a friend of mine, but I have some skin in the game (possibly) so I decided to come here for a broad range of experience and input.I read a good bit and understand a lot of the pros and cons of both styles of investments from books and internet, but real life experience often trumps much of that, that's why I'm here. Thanks
This post was edited on 2/26/19 at 2:04 pm
Posted by southside
SW of Monroe
Member since Aug 2018
647 posts
Posted on 2/26/19 at 1:53 pm to
Thanks, this is the kind of info I was looking for on the stock side.
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12906 posts
Posted on 2/26/19 at 2:43 pm to
This looks to be a tough investment on the front end as the entire 75k will be used as down payment. How much of a fund will there be left over for any renovations or fixes? How old are the roofs, A/C units, water heaters, etc? All the major stuff should be considered if they break down. If there's not a good account to support any issues early on such as damage or not being fully rented out, I'd probably pass. You have to leave yourself room for error here. I think if there are full renters for a few years with no major issues, you'd be fine, but that's the ideal scenario.
Posted by Ric Flair
Charlotte
Member since Oct 2005
13828 posts
Posted on 2/26/19 at 7:19 pm to
I would probably max out 401k to yearly limit (19k), instead of just 6% of salary, before starting a brokerage account or investing in RE.
Posted by mariopepper
Arisona
Member since Feb 2019
25 posts
Posted on 3/11/19 at 10:27 am to
I would purchase 2 duplexes
Posted by EA6B
TX
Member since Dec 2012
14754 posts
Posted on 3/11/19 at 3:05 pm to
Depends on what kind of a person he is. With just 2 duplexes he would probably have to manage them himself. If he doesn't like dealing with people mutual funds are not going to call in the night and on weekends with issues.
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