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Started By
Message
re: Tennis 2019 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread
Posted on 5/10/19 at 12:06 am to GeauxHouston
Posted on 5/10/19 at 12:06 am to GeauxHouston
quote:
What do y’all think of Federer +175 tomorrow???
Fri 5/10 601 Novak Djokovic -565
6:00AM 602 Marin Cilic +477
Fri 5/10 651 Roger Federer +220
11:00AM 652 Dominic Thiem -240
Fri 5/10 701 Stefanos Tsitsipas -145
1:30PM 702 Alexander Zverev +135
Fri 5/10 751 Stan Wawrinka +315
3:30PM 752 Rafael Nadal -345
Fri 5/10
I like every favorite.
ETA: to be clear, I'm not gonna play all of those, but gun to head, I'd take every favorite. Will likely play both Rafa and Thiem.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 12:07 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 12:41 am to MidnightVibe
CRACKA TRIGGER WARNING -- READ FURTHER AT YOUR OWN RISK
Knowlzee said during the FAA match that "it was only a matter of time before FAA is #1 in the world". He said it emphatically and without qualification.
And I'm not posting this as some kind of appeal to authority, because it is just Knowlzee's opinion....but I do think Knowlzee is one of the better and more insightful commentators in the game, and give some weight to his thoughts.
And, hell, I really want FAA to go ahead and start winning majors now so that we can dispel with this 'the game is too physical for young guys to win majors' silliness. No no. Young guys simply need to be good enough. And that just hasn't been the case since Novak and Rafa won majors at a young age and a very young age, respectively. Oh, and Delpo too.*
Apologies to Milos Raonic, we ran out of time.
___________________________________
* I always forget how young he was when he was knocking the damn racquet out of smug's hand with some of the fastest forehands I've ever seen. Damn shame he wasn't able to stay healthy for any extended period. I feel like he should be a 3-4 major guy, but it's prolly not in the cards now.
ETA: such a fun final to watch: 2009 US Open Final Highlights
ETA2: the one at 1-1 in the 4th set. Dear gawd. Had to be over 110.
Knowlzee said during the FAA match that "it was only a matter of time before FAA is #1 in the world". He said it emphatically and without qualification.
And I'm not posting this as some kind of appeal to authority, because it is just Knowlzee's opinion....but I do think Knowlzee is one of the better and more insightful commentators in the game, and give some weight to his thoughts.
And, hell, I really want FAA to go ahead and start winning majors now so that we can dispel with this 'the game is too physical for young guys to win majors' silliness. No no. Young guys simply need to be good enough. And that just hasn't been the case since Novak and Rafa won majors at a young age and a very young age, respectively. Oh, and Delpo too.*
Apologies to Milos Raonic, we ran out of time.
___________________________________
* I always forget how young he was when he was knocking the damn racquet out of smug's hand with some of the fastest forehands I've ever seen. Damn shame he wasn't able to stay healthy for any extended period. I feel like he should be a 3-4 major guy, but it's prolly not in the cards now.
ETA: such a fun final to watch: 2009 US Open Final Highlights
ETA2: the one at 1-1 in the 4th set. Dear gawd. Had to be over 110.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 12:57 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 1:23 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
I'd take every favorite
This approach would have gone 8-0 yesterday
Posted on 5/10/19 at 1:30 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
CRACKA TRIGGER WARNING
You may not have noticed, but Felix is the only young player I haven't really argued against, in terms of his future. Does that mean I think he's a lock to win X amount of slams and/or be #1 in X years? Well, no. But I do think he's the truth. He has everything you would want in terms of skill, size, speed, athleticism, work ethic, and (maybe most importantly) attitude and mental toughness.
ETA: If I had to nitpick something... his forehand is currently one of the worst on tour, in my opinion. Is it Benoit-Paire bad? No, but pretty close. It has too much topspin and he struggles when trying to flatten it out to hit winners. Not only is it often landing short, it's landing WAY short. I'm talking service-line short. And on clay that type of ball just sits up perfectly for the top players to demolish.
The good news? In terms of correctability, I would think a forehand is easier to fix than some other strokes or characteristics. Another option is to keep the same grip but improve the pace, either by a dramatic change in racket head speed (unlikely), a racket change (meh), or a drop in string tension (which worked for me).
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 2:00 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 2:13 am to GeauxHouston
quote:
What do y’all think of Federer +175 tomorrow???
That's one thing I won't be playing. I think Thiem wins, but I won't be laying -250 either.
Should be a fun watch.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 2:22 am to bayoucracka
heck of a final 8 in Madrid, best I've seen in a while
Posted on 5/10/19 at 2:47 am to The Egg
Agreed. No servebots too. I'm not even sure who's the worst of the bunch. Maybe Cilic since it's clay?
Posted on 5/10/19 at 4:05 am to bayoucracka
For everyone who is probably wondering why I never shut up about betting, this is a little glimpse into what I do for a living. I'm not looking to hijack the thread. It's tennis related.
I was looking at the props on 5Dimes and came across +245 for Tsitsipas to win in straight sets. It felt a little high so I checked it against all the other sportsbooks and, sure enough, they made a rare miss on the number.
This image below shows an average price of +167 and a "best" price of +187. A 2-0 win is the same bet as -1.5 Sets.
There are a few ways to attack this, which I won't cover here, but I chose what I call the freeroll option. I placed the following bets:
$200 to win $490 on Tsitsipas 2-0
$420 to win $200 on any other result
If he wins in straights, I win $70. If anything else happens, I break even. Basically I'm risking nothing with a decent chance to win something (freerolling). Here are my bets...
Unfortunately 5Dimes adjusted the line to +170 after I bet it. My bad
That's one of the many approaches I use to beat sports betting. The ironic thing is that tennis is my favorite sport, and the sport I know the most about, yet it's the least profitable for me. Any bets I make or mention in this thread are for fun, not business. Believe it or not, the bulk of my money comes from soccer, and I don't know shite about it.
I was looking at the props on 5Dimes and came across +245 for Tsitsipas to win in straight sets. It felt a little high so I checked it against all the other sportsbooks and, sure enough, they made a rare miss on the number.
This image below shows an average price of +167 and a "best" price of +187. A 2-0 win is the same bet as -1.5 Sets.
There are a few ways to attack this, which I won't cover here, but I chose what I call the freeroll option. I placed the following bets:
$200 to win $490 on Tsitsipas 2-0
$420 to win $200 on any other result
If he wins in straights, I win $70. If anything else happens, I break even. Basically I'm risking nothing with a decent chance to win something (freerolling). Here are my bets...
Unfortunately 5Dimes adjusted the line to +170 after I bet it. My bad
That's one of the many approaches I use to beat sports betting. The ironic thing is that tennis is my favorite sport, and the sport I know the most about, yet it's the least profitable for me. Any bets I make or mention in this thread are for fun, not business. Believe it or not, the bulk of my money comes from soccer, and I don't know shite about it.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 4:15 am to bayoucracka
Forgot to mention I watched the Stan highlights vs. Pella and came away extremely impressed. I haven't watched the Kei highlights, but I feel like I don't need to with that scoreline.
He's got more pop than I've ever seen on his serve. His forehand is now a huge weapon to go along with the sick backhand. And he's moving as well as ever.
Beating Rafa might be too much to ask, but don't be surprised if it's a battle.
He's got more pop than I've ever seen on his serve. His forehand is now a huge weapon to go along with the sick backhand. And he's moving as well as ever.
Beating Rafa might be too much to ask, but don't be surprised if it's a battle.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 6:25 am to bayoucracka
quote:
You may not have noticed, but Felix is the only young player I haven't really argued against, in terms of his future.
Was just giving you a hard time.
quote:
ETA: If I had to nitpick something... his forehand is currently one of the worst on tour, in my opinion. Is it Benoit-Paire bad? No, but pretty close. It has too much topspin and he struggles when trying to flatten it out to hit winners.
I was actually thinking that his backhand was too topspin-y. It's of course still better than every American on tour save maybe Fritz. And also better than the one-handed offering of his canuck brethren. I just don't understand why any kid would hit a one-hander. "because Roger Federer does it" is not an acceptable answer imho.
quote:
The good news? In terms of correctability, I would think a forehand is easier to fix than some other strokes or characteristics.
Probably true. It's a more natural motion. I radically changed my forehand grip a couple years ago and was able to get comfortable with it relatively quickly.* It took me several months to figure out the old grip was better, and when I switched back it was like I had never changed it at all.
_______________
*why did I do this? I was trying to copy the forehand of this guy from my hometown. His forehand is both fairly unorthodox and ridiculously nasty. He basically hits it with a ping pong grip....so take your regular forehand grip and put your index finger along the the length of the grip, and leave the other fingers wrapped around like you normally would. I figured switching to his grip would give me his forehand. It did not. I don't know how he hits his forehand the way he does, but the angles are insane. I think he just has better hand-eye than me.**
**that being said, i could hit some amazing shots when I used that grip, but the consistency wasn't there. Maybe if I'd been using it my whole life... But since I hadn't, I went back to ole semi-western. I rarely hit it for a winner, but I fricking never miss a ball. Well...at least when I was still playing tennis. Haven't played in several months.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 6:26 am to bayoucracka
quote:
That's one thing I won't be playing. I think Thiem wins, but I won't be laying -250 either.
I layed it.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 6:28 am to bayoucracka
quote:
I'm not looking to hijack the thread
Gambling posts are encouraged. You're good.
quote:
Believe it or not, the bulk of my money comes from soccer, and I don't know shite about it.
Interesting...
Posted on 5/10/19 at 10:56 am to MidnightVibe
Smug is gonna win this match, and MV is gonna be really really pissed.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 10:57 am to MidnightVibe
should have put your money on tGOAT
jk, I think Thiem has a good shot at winning this set
jk, I think Thiem has a good shot at winning this set
Posted on 5/10/19 at 11:34 am to Gnar Cat21
quote:
jk, I think Thiem has a good shot at winning this set
This tb is no joking matter
Posted on 5/10/19 at 11:35 am to MidnightVibe
DT needs to tighten up that slice backhand more than a smidge.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 12:35 pm to MidnightVibe
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 6:37 pm
Posted on 5/10/19 at 1:04 pm to pelicansfan123
quote:
That Federer-Thiem match was the highest quality match I've seen all year. Fantastic tennis and what a tactical battle in that match.
It really was a good match. I was obviously rooting for Thiem, and therefore being hyper-critical of his play, but Federer deserves a ton of credit. He played really well.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 1:07 pm to MidnightVibe
If you were thinking that I made a ballsy move in once again putting my entire 5D account on Rafa, it's because you don't know how much I have in there.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 2:42 pm to MidnightVibe
I'm assuming I'll have a short time window after shitsy pants finishes off alex to roll all those winnings into Rafa as well. If 5 Dimes grants me such a time window, said winnings will be rolled into Rafa in their entirety. MV ain't playing around today.
ETA: done
ETA: done
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 2:58 pm
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