Bowl Scenario

i want UCF.

that's all i want for Christmas.

Watch WAFB at 6:00 & 10:00 to find out.

LSU-Michigan would be a good game, and I believe the team would get up for that. I hate it but I think the team would only get up for a handful of bowl opponents.

The risk vs reward for playing UCF isn’t worth it. They are good but they don’t have the name so losing to them would look terrible and beating them would just be meh.

Well think about it for a second.

Washington State wins out and goes to the playoff. There goes the PAC 12 representative. Runner up would be Utah who would be 9-3. The PAC 12 spot in the rose bowl turns into an At Large bid. Now, other At Large teams for this spot would be LSU, Oklahoma if they don’t win the Big XII, West Virginia, and UCF (unlikely). What could really throw a wrench in the scenario is if ND loses to USC. Now they become very desireable for the rose bowl.

Then in the Big Ten, Ohio State Beats Michigan. Ohio State goes to playoff. Michigan goes to the Rose. Should something flukey happen, and both teams make it in, or Michigan by some chance doesn’t go to the Rose, the next selection would be 8-4 Northwestern. Highly unlikely. The Rose would be forced into taking Michigan.

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The risk vs reward for playing UCF isn’t worth it. They are good but they don’t have the name so losing to them would look terrible and beating them would just be meh.

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that's probably what auburn felt like last year before their game.

i just would love to be the team that shuts them up.

LSU cannot go to the Cotton Bowl unless as a playoff team vs Alabama (unless they are upset by Ga). Notre Dame is in the playoff even with a loss to USC. Wash St is not getting in the playoff in any scenario.

I want Michigan in the sugar bawl. Plz tell me this is possible

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I want Michigan in the sugar bawl. Plz tell me this is possible

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Pretty unlikely. That would require there be 2 Big 10 teams in BCS bowl games that aren't in the playoffs. The only way I could see that happening is if Michigan loses to Ohio State, but Ohio State turns around and loses the Big 10 Title Game to Northwestern. That would send Northwestern to the Rose as the Big 10 Champ and possibly send Ohio State and/or Michigan to a BCS bowl as well.

That's a pretty unlikely scenario.

So let's take a look at bowl tie ins to see who could conceivably go where:
Rose is Big 10 v. Pac 12 if there are available teams not in the playoffs. Wazzou is a real longshot to make the playoffs even if they win out, so let's put the winner of the PAC 12 Title Game here against the loser of the Ohio State/Michigan game (assuming the winner goes on to win the Big 10 Title). If Northwestern somehow pulls the upset, then they would go here.

Peach is usually SEC v. ACC. It doesn't look like there will be an ACC representative other than Clemson this year who will be in the playoff unless Syracuse somehow gets the nod. They could elect to take a team like West Virginia or UCF instead. LSU could end up in this game as could Georgia or even Florida.

Sugar Bowl usually features an SEC Team vs Big 12. I believe the Sugar Bowl picks before the Peach, so it all comes down to whom they'd rather have between LSU and Georgia. This is where I see Oklahoma or possibly Texas or West Virginia going.

Cotton Bowl is typically Big 12 v. SEC, but it is a playoff game this year, as is the Orange (which usually has a slot for Notre Dame if they're ranked high enough, but the Irish will be in the playoff).

That leaves the Fiesta, which normally takes the best of the Group of Five if they're not in the playoff and another "at large" team. So, if the Peach doesn't take UCF, then UCF will be here. The Fiesta would get the 3rd shot at an SEC team, so LSU could go here following a win over Texas A&M if, say, the Peach Bowl takes Florida and the Sugar takes Georgia.

But let's take a look at the potential BCS teams:
ACC - Clemson (playoff), Syracuse (unlikely, though still alive)
SEC - Alabama (playoff), Georgia (playoff if they win the SEC, but otherwise BCS), Florida, LSU (only if they beat A&M), Kentucky (unlikely, though still possible)
Big 12 - Oklahoma (outside shot at playoffs with the right amount of chaos, otherwise can get a BCS birth if they win one of the next 2), West Virginia (need two straight wins), Texas (need two straight wins)
Big 10 - Ohio State/Michigan (winner plays for a playoff spot against Northwestern, loser goes to a BCS bowl), Northwestern (goes to the Rose Bowl with a win in the Big 10 Championship Game)
PAC 12 - Wazzou (super longshot for playoff, can go to BCS with a win in the Pac 12 Title Game), Utah (Pac 12 Title Game victory puts them in the Rose Bowl)

Non-Power Five - Notre Dame (in playoff with win over USC, otherwise still BCS), UCF (win out and they're in BCS for certain, and still longshot for playoffs)
So, if you're doing the math, 4 teams in the playoffs (Notre Dame, Clemson, winner of Alabama/Georgia, winner of Ohio State/Michigan), and everyone else fitting over spots in the Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, and Peach Bowl.

That's 8 slots devoted to (winner of Big 12 Title Game, loser of Oklahoma/West Virginia, loser of Ohio State/Michigan, loser of SEC Title Game, winner of PAC 12 Title Game, Group of Five Guy, 2 more at large teams (possibly LSU, Florida, Wazzou if they lose Pac 12 Title Game, Penn State, Syracuse, Kentucky, maybe Washington if they win the Apple Cup, etc).

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Hadn't thought about this, it's not crazy but Georgia would have to stay ahead of us after losing the SECCG which ain't happenin

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BCS Bowls don't have to take the highest ranked team just because they're ahead in the pecking order. They pick the team they want, taking into account ticket sales, how well a fan base travels, distance, tv revenue, program prestige, etc.